8 reasons why i don't think that Hillary's win tonight translates into wins in other states

[Joe the Revelator]

Here's why:

1. New Hampshire, bump withstanding, was always hers to lose. New Hampshire loves the Clinton's. All the bellyaching from Bill about the short week worked in her favor, because historically, the NH bounce always fades away over time. This time the fade began yesterday. Which leads me to:

2. Hillary trotted out her trick pony yesterday. Say what you will about the sincerity of the moment, but the crying thing got her back into this race more then any other factor. It made woman break for her, which is nice, but that too will fade away. And this time she won't be able to go back to the tears in order to shore up her support, because it would be unbelievably transparent.

3. The demographics get much easier for Obama in the stretch run. Iowa and New Hampshire, demographically speaking, never should have been his strong suit.

4. Obama's "college army" will be better mobilized. As we all know, young voters are not very reliable, but I believe they honestly believe in this guy. Hell, I'm 25 and I honestly believe in this guy. I also think that they bought into the media's pronouncement that the nominating process was all over. I doubt they fall for that mistake again.

5. The media can't play favorites anymore,for either candidate. As the backlash grows tomorrow, they are going to have to do the same fence building (granted to a lesser extent) that they did after the '00 early calls.

6. There is a week between here and Nevada. Still a short time period, but the extra 48 hours will help Obama mold his message to answer the attack that have been coming from the Hillary campaign. He's already started today with the "YES WE CAN" mantra, which as Maddrow astutely pointed out, is also the "Si, se Puede" united farm workers motto. He knows, after tonight, that he has some issues with Unions, but he has time to fix that flaw.

7. I think the anti-Hillary voters are going to be stronger now that votes are actually being counted, and Hillary has won a state. Also, I'd expect to see some soft support for Edwards shake off and migrate on over to Obama.

8. He loses the "front runner" tag that was placed on him by the MSM. As Hillary has shown, its easier to play from behind.

(Sorry if there are more typos then usual. I need to go to sleep)

[The Magistrate]

1. My Guess, Sir

Is that Sen. Obama will take South Carolina, probably against poll predictions and by as narrow a margin as he lost New Hampshire tonight.

My money in a wager would be on Sen. Clinton taking the majority of the votes cast on February fifth, however.

Nevada is a mystery entire....

[Anouka]

4. Why? n/t

backlash?
organization?
race?


why?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Because Hillary Wins Hispanics 3-1 And Asians 2-1

And neither group was represented in NH and IA...

[Anouka]

11. Ah. And the reason for that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Affection For Her In The Hispanic Community

The fact that under Bill Clinton African American and Hispanic unemployment were at their lowest levels in history...

More nostalgia for the Clinton years than some want to believe... Working class folks remember under Clinton, employment was high, inflation was low, gas was cheap, and they didn't have to worry about being foreclosed on....

Don't know why Asians love the Clintons...I suspect they remember the good times too...

[roguevalley]

31. Nevada has a strong presence for Edwards. As for college support,

they were not there for Obama in NH so the news and polls state even though there were colleges there that could have been important in the outcomes. Personally, I would not have a peeve but I do recall a thread yesterday where someone called out all the 'old coots' for somehow dissing them and preventing their participation in the process. Apparently, the reason young people don't vote or participate in the election process is because of 'old coots'. Frankly, I thought it was because some people, regardless of age, can't get off their fat asses and go down and vote.

I am old, I don't believe I'm a coot and I've voted in every election since I was eighteen. We were the first people to be able to vote at
eighteen. My franchise is sacred to me and always has been. People have
a duty to vote. Frankly, its totally an individual's fault if they don't go down. If they meet resistance there -dumped off records, etc- that is another thing.

[Jim Sagle]

2. NONE of Edwards' support is soft, genius.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Then he's the only candidate in the history of politics with 100% unmovable support

[Dawgs]

23. Link, genius?

I could say the same thinking about Obama supporters, but I know that many would switch to Edwards if it meant beating Hillary.

BTW, both of my brothers are soft Edwards supporters.

[Jim Sagle]

24. Sorry 'bout that.

[Joe the Revelator]

25. The question becomes, would you'd rather have Edwards with a poltical future....

or a President Hillary Clinton?

[Jim Sagle]

26. I'd rather have her than Obama any seven days of the week.

Nice guy, my ASS. "You're likable enough, Hillary."

[Joe the Revelator]

27. Well, if this is a popularity contest, I guess you've voted, but if you care about issues

An Obama Presidency with Edwards either VP or AG is a lot better, for the issues Edwards champions, then to elect Hillary.

[Jim Sagle]

33. For the issues I care about, Edwards is the ONLY way.

Hillary is a DLC sedative. Obama is stealth RNC poison.

[usregimechange]

3. I give up making predictions...

http://www.barackobama.com">

[K Gardner]

6. Kudos for being able to think this late. I'm bookmarking to read tomorrow,

but I'm glad you wrote it because I needed.. oh, what was that word.. oh yea, HOPE !!

Going to bed, too. Depressed. Wrung out. Tired. Angry. Worried about my country. Worried about my country.

[DFW]

7. I'd amend that to "not necessarily"

If her campaign isn't aware of all that and making allowances
for each point, then they deserve to go down. I know Ann Lewis,
(never even heard of Mark Penn before this campaign), and Ann
is one very sharp woman. She will be aware of all this, and will
surely be taking it into account. Any campaign that doesn't anticipate
their obstacles will stumble on them.

[Joe the Revelator]

8. I originally had the word "automatic" in the subject line....

Then again, 3 or 4 of those points are now non-issues. I think once Hillary's bump wears off, the national numbers will settle back near where they are now, with her holding a comfortable lead.

[FrenchieCat]

10. If the SEIU and the Culinary Union Endorsements for Obama hold

and the fact that Nevada is a caucus, Nevada could go for Obama....but that a big if!

[regnaD kciN]

12. 1 reason why I think it does, unfortunately...

...from now through at least South Carolina or "Super Tuesday," we'll have the COM telling us over and over that, essentially, the last five days were a mirage -- that Hillary is, once again, the "inevitable" nominee, and that Obama has been proven to be a flash-in-the-pan whose brief time in the spotlight has now passed.

And, as Joseph Goebbles said long ago, a statement (even if a lie) repeated over and over becomes the truth.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

14. Astute points, #1, 7, 8 especially

For all the talk about a "stunning victory" for Hillary in NH, it was a meager 2% for a candidate with tremendous name recognition, and who was declared all but inevitable just a few weeks ago. NH is a stronghold for the Clintons and she should have won this by double digits. From interacting with Dems in many states, her support is tenuous at best, especially if she can't do much better in a state that's right in her column otherwise. It's notable that close to 60% of Dems *didn't* vote for her-- far from inevitable in any sense of the word. And Iowa is precisely that kind of Midwestern Swing State that Hillary would have to be competitive in to beat someone like McCain or Huckabee in the general election. I'm still not decided, but I'm decidedly not impressed.

[Apollo11]

19. If you look at registered Democrats only, Hillary did win NH by double digits.

Among registered Democrats it was Hillary 45, Obama 33 (according to exit polls).

A lot of Obama's support came from independent or unaffiliated voters.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/08/nh.issues/index.html

[Carrieyazel]

29. But she still only won a Democratic primary by only 2 points. Big trouble on the horizon.

[William769]

15. Care to give why she won in New Hampshire when she was supposed to lose.

Forgive my sarcasm but, your post over the last couple of days leaves you with no credibility on this issue.

[Joe the Revelator]

16. There are plenty of reason in my OP that answer yoour question

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. It's going to be a very tough battle

my gut feeling was right

[Evergreen Emerald]

18. I know this is a pipe-dream, but I hope it sends a message to the press

that their attacks are backfiring.

All Clinton needs is a level playing field. She can't get it when the distortions and attacks are constant.

[Joe the Revelator]

20. That goes for the press and any candidate.

No more free rides for anyone, including Clinton.

[Evergreen Emerald]

22. free ride for Clinton? Hahahaha

She has been vilified by the press for a decade.

[William769]

30. And the hits just keep on coming!

:rofl:

[Joe the Revelator]

32. Hillary supporters are about as believable as victims as Evangelicals

[hayu_lol]

21. I understand that the machines in NV...

have a long lever on the right side of the machine and you have to insert 5 quarters in order to vote.

If anyone thinks this is a serious post, I assure you that it isn't.

[Carrieyazel]

28. It had nothing to do with Hillary. Voters don't want this one over yet.

Hillary and Obama are both highly flawed national candidates, and best to keep this one going as long as possible into the primary season.