The race card gets us nowhere

[George_Bonanza]

While it's possible that Obama was a victim of the Bradley Effect, keep in mind that he was going up against one hell of a formidable opponent in Hillary Clinton. I think we should give Clinton more respect and try to figure out non-racist reasons why an electorate could possibly vote for her. For example, her status as a Washington insider that killed her in Iowa could've buoyed her in New Hampshire. And in the big picture, I think we're forgetting that 2% is practically a tie, and NH was supposed to be a cakewalk for Clinton (as was Iowa). The fact that Obama came so close, and probably would've won in a direct head-to-head election with no Edwards, should make us much more optimistic about the frustrating race issue.

Ultimately, putting the blame on "those damn whites" creates the kind of division that Obama has been preaching to end. His candidacy has been so successful because it was able to move beyond the combative racial self-empowerment movements of the 1960s, and enter into a new era of inclusion and racial harmony. If we resort to the racial politics of suspicion and distrust, then Obama is just another racial gimmick, no different from somebody like Al Sharpton.

[Egnever]

1. I really dont buy the bradley effect in this one

Maybe I am naive. I hope he squashes that idea like a grape tomorrow.

[FrenchieCat]

2. I don't believe it either.....

6,000 racists can be dealt with, if that was the case! LOL!

[Egnever]

4. Again your wisdom shows through

[regnaD kciN]

11. The thing is, even if someone could PROVE a "Bradley effect" this time...

...it wouldn't help matters, because it would only likewise "prove" that an African-American can't get elected President, and that therefore Democrats should abandon Obama and pick a Caucasian candidate who has a chance of winning.

[Raine]

3. I'm not so sure

I remember when Bradley got beaten. All the people polled said they would vote for him, election night it turned out different. I was reminded of that tonight. :-( I hope for this nation's sake that this is not what happened. The thought of that going on at least two decades later makes me sick and very sad.

[regnaD kciN]

12. I was in L.A. at the time of that election...

...and there were other factors besides possible racism.

Democrats in California did poorer overall than exit polls suggested they would (outgoing Governor Jerry Brown was projected to be "neck and neck" in a Senate race with Pete Wilson that the latter wound up winning easily, the long-time Democratic Superintendent of Schools was upset by a Republican newcomer, etc.), so it wasn't just a matter of color.

One of the biggest factors of that election was pattern of turnout. Gun-control forces had, possibly unwisely, put a fairly sweeping initiative (which lost badly) on the ballot, resulting in a huge GOTV effort from the NRA and a much-heavier-than-expected turnout in ultraconservative Orange County and the rural areas of the state. So, essentially, the electorate that day was much more skewed toward conservatives and Republicans than would normally be the case in California...and it showed in more races than just the gubernatorial one.

[sandnsea]

5. McCain, youth, women

A few points here, a few there, and pretty soon you've lost an election. I would imagine there were some racial votes in there too, to not think so is racist in itself.

[killbotfactory]

13. He got the youth vote overwhelmingly

He did poorly among the 40 and up crowd, and women in general. I would guess that race is more of a factor among older people than it is for young people.

[sandnsea]

15. Turnout in IA was 23%

He didn't get the turnout in NH. Either the older women swamped the youth vote, or the younger people didn't show. I would guess you'd have to look at straight numbers to figure out which it was.

[yungCaucasoid]

6. Maybe blaming *those damn Whites* is correct, for...

Wasn't it "those damn Whites" who created the NH result, tonight?

Afterall, the last time I researched NH populous, it was pretty lilli-White throughout the entire state.

You beautiful people should keep in mind, Obama is from the tri-state area of IA/IL/IN and, that fact mislead millions when the IA result came out. We should've expected him to win the IA Caucuses, its basically, his backyard. IA may be 95% White, but fortunately Obama is 50% White himself, and it spoke loud & favorably in IA. But unfortunately, an msnbc.com late-Summer '07 story, reported on a poll which claimed that 60% of the Nation is NOT READY for a Black President...hmmm

So I think if Obama changed his platform, to cater to his White heritage more, and...almost appear to disconnect from his Black support base, then he will create enough momentum to win the Democratic nomination.

And, remember, he hasn't even been through 'the red states' yet.

[BluegrassDem]

7. NH is a conservative state...not very friendly to people of color

Why is this a surprise? Conservative whites don't much care for blacks. It's the truth.

[Tess99]

9. And liberal whites are so much better? n/t

[regnaD kciN]

14. While New Hampshire is a conservative state overall...

...at least compared to its neighbors to the south and west, Democrats in New Hampshire are no more conservative than elsewhere in the Northeast...it's just that there's fewer of them than those other states.

[Anouka]

8. Is it about sex/gender, then?

the debate and the crying incident.

Woman broke HARD, after that.

What kind of effect is that? and are we allowed to talk about it, or is that considered 'anti-woman' to acknowledge?

[regnaD kciN]

10. It might simply be...

...that a) Hillary had a large lead over Obama before Iowa, b) Obama got a huge but temporary bump from the Iowa results, and c) the effect of those results more-or-less wore off after four days, with Obama holding on to a substantial permanent gain, but not enough to overcome Hillary's previous advantage?

Much of the sense that this was a "huge comeback" for HRC, or that there was a dramatic shift caused by something tangible, is based on the polls of the past few days showing Obama up by double-digits (plus the fact that, earlier in the evening, when lots of people stopped watching the race, her lead was 5% or 6%, instead of the 2% margin she wound up with). But...if there hadn't been any polls taken after Iowa, the narrative of the day would be that "Hillary had to fight hard to hold off an Obama surge and eke out a narrow victory in a state she expected to win handily" instead.

[killbotfactory]

16. If the polls are/were bunk, this wasn't really an upset

But that won't stop the spin.