Obama already past winning post at bookies

[Patriot Abroad]

Source: Irish Independent

By Tom Brady
Tuesday January 08 2008


THE bookies are already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House.


After his stunning victory last week in the Iowa caucuses, Mr Obama is now odds on favourite at 1-12 to secure the nomination and overcome his closest rival, Hillary Clinton.

On the eve of the crucial New Hampshire primary, Ireland's biggest bookmaker, Paddy Power Bookmakers decided yesterday that the contest was already well and truly over from a betting viewpoint.

The firm agreed to pay out €50,000 to punters who backed Mr Obama over the past few weeks, at odds ranging from 4-1 to 4-9.

. . .

Read more: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/obama-already-past-winning-post-at-bookies-1260047.html

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Note that this was before the NH primary - Paddy Power was a bit premature!

[Patriot Abroad]

1. Update from Paddy Power

Current odds after NH:
Clinton 8-15
Obama 11-8
Edwards 30-1
Gore 50-1
Richardson 100-1

Presumably they're no longer automatically paying the Obama bets!

[Dr.Phool]

2. Gotta be the dumbest bookie in the world.

Paying off before a fight is over?

[ExPatLeftist]

3. It is marketing

This is a trick that has been used by a few bookmaking agencies in the UK and Ireland over the past few years - paying off on something that is far from over. An English bookmaker did the same on the Premier League recently as well, IIRC.

It is viewed as marketing. For £50.000 (or nothing, depending on how the election goes), this guy is getting global media attention and consideration as a clueless bookie - which is the best publicity a bookie can get (if it is not true) and means that punters will rush in to place bets with him. But he is not a sucker IMO, he has simply himself placed a £50.000 bet on Obama, and regardless of whether he wins or loses that bet, he gets free advertising on major news outlets all over the world. Not too bad a deal.

[Patriot Abroad]

4. Good analysis

Paddy Power's more than a guy of course, it's a multimillion dollar gambling company, one of many in the UK/Ireland which have grown explosively online after starting as a chain of "bookies". It's one of the little oddities here after living in the States, that every small town will have a betting establishment along with their petrol station, church, newstand, and 15 pubs . . .