Hillary is poised to take Michigan, Nevada, Florida, Cali, and New Jersey.

[mzmolly]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

Obama is polling ahead in S.C.

It's obvious to me, that as of today, this race is still hers to lose.

Interestingly enough, she is not the most electable in a G.E. match-up with the top tier Republicans:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Off topic a bit, however, John Edwards IS the "most electable" and Obama is a close second. I think Hillary is promoting the notion that she is the most likely to 'win' and voters may believe her, but that's not what the polls indicate.

An aside, RCP averages showed Bush winning slightly in the last G.E. Sans what happened in N.H. they seem pretty accurate?

[xultar]

1. ...

:popcorn:

[ronnykmarshall]

5. Milk Dud?

[Parche]

14. i love milk duds

:hi: :bounce: :bounce:

[xultar]

31. WAY BETTER. Thanks. Popcorn?

[ronnykmarshall]

43. Why thank you!

Mmmmmmmm ! Delish!

[zulchzulu]

2. Michigan and Florida don't count for Democrats

Last I checked, both changed their date and the Democratic Party won't count their delegates at the convention.

[mzmolly]

7. I think it's helpful to her regardless?

And, I'm not thrilled about that personally. ;)

[zulchzulu]

16. Last I checked, Dodd, HRC and Kucinich are on Michigan ballot

No one is campaigning there. Like you said, it does suck, but rules is rules...

[killbotfactory]

18. She's the only one on the ballot in Michigan and Flordia

so if she wins, it will be a hollow victory.

Who knows if that's how it will be reported.

[rinsd]

22. Everyone is on the ballot in FL. She, Dodd & Kucinich are on the MI ballot.

[killbotfactory]

28. So just Michigan

My mistake.

For some reason I don't think have Dodd and Kucinich on the ballot will make it competitive.

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. Incorrect:

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/s_ballots/012908dem-eng.html

[William769]

Looking at the Psychology of it they do.

[rinsd]

15. Its not about delegates but perception.

[William769]

27. And being televised nationally.

[William769]

3. ...

[mrdemocrat78]

4. she won't get michigan + there delegates don't count anyway

granholm is an AWEFUL governor; will hurt clinton too much

[rinsd]

8. She and Kucinich are the only ones on the MI ballot still running.

[mzmolly]

9. Well, that explains Michigan.

;)

[displacedtexan]

46. Granholm was reelected. Why do you call her "AWEFUL"?

And the MI state house turned blue at the same time
last November.

Did you want a discount on DeVos' Amway products or something?

[Nailzberg]

6. And North Dakota and Nebraska and onto Washington to take back the White House YEEEAAARRRRGGGH

Sorry, it takes over whenever I see a list of states.

[Clarkansas]

10. Michigan and Florida have 0 delegates. eom

[AlCzervik]

11. considering only Clinton and Kucinich will be on the MI ballot it's not a big shock.

we'll see what happens between now and feb 5th. Imo this race is a whole new game starting today.

[no name no slogan]

12. If we learned anything from NH, it's that polls are to be trusted completely

[mzmolly]

19. dup

delete

[mzmolly]

21. Well, these polls were pre N.H. which only makes her win even MORE likely.

:shrug:

[geek tragedy]

13. NV is impossible to poll. Michigan won't count

because she's the only one on the ballot.

[rinsd]

17. FL will be a bigger deal than MI.

[tridim]

20. Polls, polls, polls..

They mean nothing regardless if you trust them or not.

[cindyw]

23. Those polls are WAY too old to look at.

How does Hillary winning in a poll from November or September tell us anything for today

[mzmolly]

29. Some are older, some are not.

If you have newer data, please share it.

[MadBadger]

24. Ignoring the fact that I dont trust polls anymore...you do realize that most of these states...

havent polled since early DECEMBER?

[mzmolly]

26. Some are older, yes. But, N.H. didn't hurt her any.

And, I still think that a 20-30 point lead is tough to overcome. Do you have newer polls that contradict these numbers? If so, I'm encouraged.

[MadBadger]

33. Well, After Iowa, polls had her national numbers evaporate

Gallup had her up 18 before Iowa and now they have her tied. I realize there will be a NH bump too as well for her.

The latest florida poll has Hillary up only 7, well down from the high number it was before. In Nevada, there were two polls taken at the same time in eary november. An ARG poll that had her up 27, and a Mason Dixon that had her only up 8, so choose which one. Dont forget to take into consideration how much ARG has fucked shit up.

In the end, I trust no polls.

[mzmolly]

38. Ya got a point. I supported Dean about this time 4 years ago, he was set to "win" as well.

I really want to see a competition, not a coronation.

[HeraldSquare212]

37. But that's what we've been seeing happen, isn't it? nt

[mzmolly]

39. Well RCP had Obama ahead in Iowa as well. Though it is still early...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

:shrug:

[Beacool]

25. I think that it's a big mistake to alienate MI & FL!!!!!

Particularly FL, I just came back from FL last week and the Dems. are miffed at the national party. We NEED FL to win in the GE, it's a mistake to disenfranchise them. If they eventually don't make a deal with Dean et al., I fear that FL may end up in the Republican column in Nov.

[CyberPieHole]

42. I feel the same way...

what makes people think that if the Democratic Party dis~enfranchises two entire states, that those states will come back to vote for a Dem in the GE? It's ridiculous. Take away someone's vote and they won't vote FOR YOU when you give them a chance...they will vote AGAINST YOU. It's human nature.

[ieoeja]

45. I will never understand why the Dems in FL and MI did that to their own.

They knew the rules. They knew the consequences. And they just went ahead and disenfranchised their own voters anyway. That was absolutely insane.

[CyberPieHole]

47. It's some power play for placement on the primary calendar...

So are the repercussions set in stone? I really don't know as much about it as I should...I guess I should google it and find out the details. It just doesn't make any sense...does that mean that both those states will go republican? How much of a chance do we have of any of our candidates winning a state in the GE that they skipped during the primary. It just boggles the mind.

[suston96]

30. Here is a good interactive poll tracker....

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm?qState=IA

....but remember, some are very old, as has been pointed out.

[mzmolly]

35. Thanks!

I'm a poll watcher, and it may not mean a thing - the results are identical so I think they must be using the same "average" data?

I wonder if there are any Super Tuesday state polls?

[City Lights]

34. Polls.

:rofl:

[mzmolly]

41. LOL

Yea, I should know better huh? But, with a national figure who's been vetted like she has, it seems they might be accurate.

Time will tell huh?

[H2O Man]

36. I think cali

has said she is for Senator Obama.

[mzmolly]

40. Well, he's my second choice!

After Eddie. ;)

[Imagevision]

44. Polls? don't be silly, as long as the Diebold's are sparked up, no problem yes for Hillary!