SC poll has Obama with big lead but big racial divide. Backlash against Hillary, Obama?

[jackson_dem]

Obama 44, Hillary 31, Edwards 16, Kucinich 1, undecided 8.

Obama does 49% better with blacks than whites and Hillary leads over Obama among whites by 24% but is 49% behind among blacks. Edwards is a strong second among whites but barely scores among blacks.

What is promising for Edwards is he is "only" 15 points behind among black voters in South Carolina. This would have been unimaginable even two weeks ago. The combination of Obama's Iowa win and the past week of racial attacks on the Clintons seems to have eroded her support among blacks. If Edwards can close some of the gap among blacks and win the white vote, where he is within striking distance, he may finish a strong second in South Carolina.

The poll may also be a sign of trouble ahead for Obama. I don't know what the last PPP poll showed but most polling had Obama competitive among whites in South Carolina all of last year. Now he is 11 points behind Edwards and 24% behind Hillary. It is hard to explain this happening for a reason other than a backlash to the past week. In South Carolina the black vote in the Democratic primary is half the electorate. In most Super Tuesday states there won't be enough of a black vote which would allow him to be down 24 among whites yet still be leading overall.


Internals

Black vote: Obama 68, Hillary 19, Edwards 4
White vote: Hillary 43, Edwards 30, Obama 19, Kucinich 2
"Other" vote: Obama 62, Hillary 14, Edwards 5, Kucinich 5
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_011308.pdf

[Radical Activist]

1. Remember 6 months ago

when Clinton was winning the black vote and people wondered if Obama was black enough?

[sandnsea]

2. "mud slinging... wil help John Edwards"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4054478&mesg_id=4055230

[jackson_dem]

6. Why do you keep stalking and taking my comment out of context?

The poll confirms what I suspected. Instead of stalking me why don't you call the Obama campaign and tell them to knock it off? They are hurting themselves, the party, and the nation.

[sandnsea]

8. Don't like your words?

People can read what you said for themselves.

[jackson_dem]

11. You took them out of context. You are an example of why so many got turned off by Obamites

[Kittycat]

3. It's SC, was Obama expected to take a chunk of the white vote?

Just curious.

[Dems Will Win]

4. Edwards is taking 30% of the white vote, favorite son situation

Obama is still gold. Edwards is helping Obama by taking that 30% of the vote.

He is going to win SC and NV, then split Feb. 5 and take most of the rest. I predict 35 states for Obama and 15 for Clinton.

Obama will soon have won in the West, the Midwest and the South and almost won in the NE.

[jasmine621]

17. In this case, Edwards is helping Obama. Gives false impression

of Obama's strength in SC.

[jackson_dem]

7. He was always competitive with the white vote

He wasn't expected to win it but he wasn't expected to be 11 points behind Edwards and 24 behind Hillary. His decline among whites is hidden by him shooting up to 68% among the black vote. If this decline occurs nationally he is in trouble on Super Tuesday. The problem for Hillary is limited to South Carolina and a few other states like Georgia and Alabama.

[Joe the Revelator]

19. He's lost 5 points since the last poll,well within the MOE

non story

[goldcanyonaz]

5. kick.

[usregimechange]

9. This is huge! Anyone know how many delegates are in SC?

[rocktivity]

10. Get thee behind me, poll!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[origin1286]

12. If these numbers are accurate

Hillary's strategy is working perfectly.

[Barack_America]

14. Just not in South Carolina, where alienating 50% of the electorate...

...is a pretty good strategy to NOT get elected.

[origin1286]

18. She doesn't care about SC

She's basically saying "Fuck the black vote. Let's capture the white vote."

Make it a race war.

She wins whites.

Obama wins blacks.

Guess who wins overall?

[Barack_America]

20. "Fuck the black vote"...isn't that the GOP strategy?

It's nice that she has such respect for ALL Americans. Especially considering those black votes meant so much to her husband.

[Barack_America]

13. I think the big question is, assuming a race between Hillary and Obama...

(and I'm not discounting Edwards' chances here, I'm saying 'assuming')

How many of those white votes will break towards Hillary and how many towards Obama?

I'm inclined to speculate Obama, but we would have to wait and see.

[jasmine621]

15. Everyone should just wait until the curtains are closed and the levers pulled.

Even if Obama wins SC this is still a tight race.

[TeamJordan23]

16. There was a racial divide even before the primarys started.

If you had looked at many of the pre-primary polls, there was always a huge racial divide in SC.

[Barack_America]

21. But the Clinton supporters wouldn't post those...

...They might not serve to prove their point. And anything that doesn't show that Hillary is going to be elected is inherently wrong.

[jackson_dem]

22. Nope. Hillary led or was competitive with the black vote in South Carolina all of last year

[RaleighNCDUer]

23. That is EASILY explained by the fact that Hillary is a known

quantity, while Obama was generally unknown.

That support, just as in Iowa, was a mile wide and an inch deep. Name recognition and a lingering fondness for the 90s.

As the campaign goes on, Hillary drops, Obama gains. He stops being an 'unknown'. As simple as that.