AGAIN STORY ON NH VOTES

[surfermaw]

AGAIN.. I am for Edwards until the dogs and cows come home.

There was nothing wrong with the voting....even Blitzer told this...Bill Clinton went in to the counties with colleges and pulled enough votes for Hillary to win...Its that simple

[RBInMaine]

1. Here's why Hillary won NH and why it ISN'T really great news.

Here's how Hillary beat Obama by 2-3 points in NH:

First, Hillary did better in the TRADITIONAL Dem base (older Dems, urban votes, union members)with a turbo charge of liberal, middle to working class women voters who may not have otherwise shown up.

How did this happen at the 11th hour to defy the polling data? It's a mix, but a pretty simple one that rests largely on two key events:

1) She did have an active GOTV operation with union help.
2) She did A LOT of press interviews (more than Obama).
3) She focused on issues and took questions at her campaign events.
4) She deployed Bill and his pull with the traditional Dem base.
5) She went negative attacking Obama's experience.
6) However, there were two KEY late events that sent the women and more traditional Dems her way:
the debate and the "tearing up" episode. In the debate she showed emotion, handled the likeability question well, and fired back hard when the two other MALE candidates sort of "ganged up" on her, as it was perceived by many. The tearing-up episode in the coffee shop made her seem "genuine" to many. Together, these events, which were played over and over again in the media, created a
late-hour "sympathy/reaffirmation that Hillary has emotions and convictions" vote, especially among women in the dem base. With these motives aided by nice weather, they voted. These events also caused a number of undecideds in the traditional dem base to break her way at the 11th hour. These are the kinds of dynamics in a primary race that can occur at the 11th hour to defy the polls, and they did. (Remember, primaries and caucuses are often tough to poll correctly because of the number of candidates, trying to predict turnout, numbers of undecides, voters changing minds at the 11th hour, etc.)

BUT, here's why Dems need to take caution BIGTIME. Obama once again drew very high numbers and almost beat Hillary but with MANY more INDEPENDENTS and even some crossover R's, once again showing his crossover appeal as he did in Iowa. IN the GENERAL election, either Hillary or Obama will receive the female vote and the traditional Dem base vote, and in large numbers. The anger with Bush and the R's will turn them out bigtime. BUT THAT'S NOT WHO WE NEED TO WIN IN ORDER TO WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION AND TURN SOME RED STATES BLUE.
WE MUST WIN INDEPENDENTS in large numbers, male voters, and even some crossover moderate R's. OBAMA HAS PROVEN HE CAN DO THIS, HILLARY HAS NOT. Hillary's negatives are way too high. She is very risky in the general election, and that's incontrovertable.

(If Hillary is nominated, I'll support her, but she will have a HUGE mountain to climb to overcome her very high negatives.)

GO OBAMA BECAUSE HE CAN WIN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION !! (Dems, look at the numbers and think damn long and hard about this. Hillary's negatives among Independents, male voters, and moderates R's, who are the very people we need to win back to prevail this time, are SCARY ! PS: I am NOT "anti-Hillary" nor making any kind of gender-based judgment in opposition to Hillary. I am just relating the incontrovertable objective facts. HILLARY IS A BIGTIME GENERAL ELECTION RISK. MUCH moreso than Obama who can appeal to a much larger base of support.)

[kansasblue]

2. But candidates from both parties have concerns.....

There's been a history problems with the e-vote.

Surely, for the sake of confidence in the system, you won't mind a simple recount.