If McCain sweeps Michigan, South Carolina and Florida

[Jai4WKC08]

Will it affect your Democratic primary/caucus vote?

McCain has surged back in national-level polls. One has to assume that winning NH has reinvigorated his campaign with plenty of money. Lots of independents and moderate Repubs who have been alienated with the direction of the GOP under Bush like McCain very much. On the other hand, even most Repubs are against the war now, which McCain seems to want to continue. On the gripping hand, many of them seem to believe the surge "is working" and McCain claims credit for it. On yet another hand, far right wingers and most evagelicals really do despise McCain, despite his sell-out to the Christian right, and probably wouldn't vote for him if he were the only one on the ballot, or EVEN if he were running against Hillary or Obama.

Have I left anything out? Probably. Feel free to add any other factors I've missed.

So, how do you vote? Does it change who you vote for? Does it influence which way you lean?

I could make this a poll, but I'd like to hear people's reasoning.

[skipos]

1. Obama vs. McCain will be like Clinton vs. Bush I, or Kennedy vs. Nixon

McCain has "Dole" written all over him.

Now, Hillary vs. Bloomberg vs. Nader vs. McCain? That doesn't sound very good to me.

[Jai4WKC08]

3. Interesting thought

I was thinking a straight-up match. But of course, Nader is in, almost for sure. Not sure about Bloomberg -- he might not see an opening with McCain drawing from the center and center-right. But still, it's worth thinking about. Will people on the left make the Nader mistake again? I don't know that disenchanted Repubs who hate McCain would vote for former-Democrat Bloomberg. But I would expect a far right-wing candidate to emerge, unless McCain can put together the machine to take him out before he gets a start.

I'm not sure I buy the Dole analogy. Certainly McCain is old, probably too old. But people like old ("seasoned") when they feel threatened, and for sure McCain will be playing the terror card. No one was concerned about a foreign threat when Dole ran. Fwiw, my husband and I argue about this point all the time. He too thinks McCain is too old. I think McCain picks a young, charismatic (by GOP standards) running mate and claims, or lets people believe, he will only serve one term.

[Cant trust em]

2. Obama is best at capturing independents

Obama will be able to siphon off some votes from the center-right, but I can't imagine Hillary picking up much ground there.

[Jai4WKC08]

4. Agree about Hillary having little growth potential in the middle

But I don't think Obama will have much success against McCain in the middle either, esp after the GOP machine gets thru paining Obama as a wild-eyed, most liberal since Lenin... well you get the picture. If they can do it to Clinton and Kerry, they can do it to anyone. Be assured, they will.

Besides, the middle is precisely where McCain's strength and popularity lie. I could be wrong about that, of course. But then it seems to me you have to consider the other factors.

[Cant trust em]

5. Who would you nominate then?

You sound like you've consigned yourself to defeat if McCain wins the GOP nomination.

Let's assume that Obama's and McCain's independent strengths cancel each other out. That still leaves us with John McCain stubbornly clinging to a tremendously unpopular war policy. The Dems (whoever that might be) need to hammer home the fact that the surge hasn't worked since no political agreement has been settled. Surge or no surge, it looks like we're going to be there forever and that is an untenable situation. Every chance we get we need to tie the GOP nominee with George Bush. If we can keep up the association with an incredibly unpopular president then we have the best shot at winning.

Don't also forget that the Dems have had record turnout in each of the two primary contest so far this year. There was a 2 to 1 ratio of Dems to Reps who turned out for Iowa. I think that there are a lot of positive signs coming out for next year.

[applegrove]

6. I hope that McCains support of worker amnesty will sink him in the south.