NYT: Mail-In Voters Become the Latest Prize
By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD
Published: January 14, 2008
LOS ANGELES — The first Tuesday in February, when 22 states hold primaries, may turn out to be the biggest day of the presidential campaign. But for many voters, half or more in some states, the polling place will be the kitchen table, the ballot box will be the mailbox and the choice in many cases will be made weeks before a voting machine lever is pulled.
In California, the biggest prize on Feb. 5, state election officials estimate that more than half of voters may vote by mail, which has forced campaigns to adjust their strategies and has some political observers worried that people may make hasty choices they may later regret. Mail ballots went out last week, and some campaigns have been stepping up efforts to reach voters before they open the mailbox....
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Nationwide, 31 states allow some form of early voting with “no excuse required,” and analysts say interest in voting by mail has increased mainly because it is more convenient than going to, and sometimes waiting in line, at a polling place. Several states in the last decade have changed their laws to allow all voters to cast ballots by mail for any reason, as opposed to limiting it to the infirm or those who will be out of town. (New York, whose primary is Feb. 5, requires voters to state a reason when they apply for an absentee ballot, leading political professionals to speculate that such voting by mail will not be as large a factor there as in other states.).
Early voting adds another layer of complication to the already frenetic, far-flung campaign. Well-financed campaigns are in better position to take advantage of this dynamic by having more to spend on phone banks, mailings and other tactics to specifically target these voters. It makes for an “extensive, grueling and expensive get-out-the-vote operation,” said Paul Gronke, a political science professor at Reed College in Portland, Ore., who is an expert on early voting. Mr. Gronke said surveys had shown that voters who use absentee ballots tend to be older, more affluent, better educated and more partisan. Advocates for mail-in voting say it fits modern lifestyles....
But some people in politics are troubled by the trend. They say it increases the pressure on candidates to raise money to support early get-out-the-vote efforts. They also say that votes could be wasted on a candidate who drops out after voters mailed in their ballots before primary day. “Quite frankly, I think they should do away with early voting except for people who are bed-ridden or out of the state,” said Randy Pullen, chairman of the Republican Party in Arizona, where 48 percent of the ballots cast in the last statewide election, in 2006, were mailed....“During the 30-day cycle, when you can pick up a ballot and vote, a lot of things can happen,” he said. “Thirty days is a lifetime in an election cycle. People regret their vote and wish they could change it. Look at New Hampshire. The way you might have voted two days before Hillary had her emotional display might have been different than the way you’d have voted after.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/us/politics/14ballot.html