Michigan Exit Poll: Clinton 48%, Obama 34%, Edwards 15%

[Herman Munster]

14% lead in a big state like Michigan with a large african american population bodes well for the future for Hillary even if there is a black backlash. Whites don't like black candidates that are racially polarizing.

[Skidmore]

1. Do you just make numbers up? Where do you get this stuff?

[book_worm]

2. Umm, Herman I thought that Hillary was the only one of those on ballot

so probably a lot of their supporters didn't bother to show up.

[Herman Munster]

7. the exit poll asked voters who they would have voted for if the names were on the ballot

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/

** Exit polls show backlash against Hillary Clinton among black voters... Almost 70% of black voters in the Dem sample chose uncommitted and only 25% chose Clinton. (She's leading overall -- beating uncommitted by, like, 40 points)... Remember: Michigan's Dem primary doesn't matter b/c Clinton's name is the only one on the ballot and there are no delegates, but one can read these numbers as a sign of trouble for her among black voters.

**Fox News asks Dems who'd they vote for if Clinton was on the ballot: Clinton got 48%, Obama got 34%, Edwards got 15%.

**Russert hints that race questions will be asked tonight....

[book_worm]

10. yes, but because they aren't on the ballot it makes sense that more of her supporters actually

showed up. It makes no sense to do an exit poll including two candidates who are not even on the ballot.

[bunnies]

55. Exactly. nt

[Joe the Revelator]

11. Of COURSE she would win this poll. There wasn't much reason for Obama and Edwards supporters to....

venture out in the snow.

Once again, this is fucking stupid.

[Herman Munster]

15. umm that argument doesn't fly

there was a campaign to get people to vote uncommitted to embarass hillary.

[book_worm]

25. that makes no sense. Obama and Edwards voters had no reason to turn out

in a state where they are not on ballot and no delegates will be seated.

[Joe the Revelator]

26. Oh yes it does

On a snowy low turnout day, in a election that has no bearing, Obama and Edwards supporters are not going to go out of there way in great numbers to vote uncomitted. Once again, this is REALLY stupid spin on your part.

The worst I've seen from you, which is saying a lot.

[fujiyama]

38. I can assure you that it was COLD today and it was snowing

and with all that, it wasn't worth it to many, if not most of Edwards and Obama supporters to make it to the polls.

Your "exit poll" is worthless.

[juajen]

80. The same holds true for Hillary. Why would her supporters

turn out to vote when the election did not pay dividends. Most would assume she would handily win, and stay by their warm fire.

[cali]

16. bwahahaha

If this holds up Clinton will have been beaten by undeclared.

:rofl:

Not too good to be beaten by undeclared.

[Herman Munster]

23. but she wasn't

she beat undeclared by 40 points

[Joe the Revelator]

29. The polls aren't even closed yet, how do you know that?

[rodeodance]

67. guess you are not in the LOOP

[RiverStone]

30. these "exit numbers" are 100% flawed

That is, only people who bothered to show up were polled.

Ummm, I wonder how many folks who's candidate was NOT on the ballot even went to the polls.

No Obama. No Edwards.

Many of those folks stayed home.

So this poll is 100% bullshit.

I will give ya credit though, your sure are looking in every nook and cranny to find positive Hillary stories.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. You can spin it that way, haha.

Or you can spin it that Obama is only 14 down, even though he isn't on the ballot there.

[book_worm]

6. Bravo!

[Barack_America]

35. That's a great way of looking at it!...n/t

[skipos]

4. Wow. I voted in the MI primary and I didn't see Obama or Edwards on the ballot.

I wonder how much of an effect that had?

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Of course more of her supporters came out to the polls....she was the only one on the ballot

This is stupid even by your standards.

[cali]

8. knock, knock, anyone home?

Obama and Edwards are not on the ballot and write ins get thrown out. Michigan dems can vote Clinton, Kucinich or undeclared. And that's it.

[Herman Munster]

12. what is so hard to understand

it was an EXIT POLL that asked voters who they would have voted for if the names were on the ballot.

[book_worm]

21. again because Obama and Edwards are not on the ballot it means shit

because without a doubt many Obama and Edwards supporters didn't bother to go and vote. BTW, according to reports I've heard turnout was pretty dismal.

[RiverStone]

32. But don't you think more Hillary, Kucinich, or Gravel folks showed...

Because they were on the ballot (my apologies if I left someone out)????

But Obama or Edwards folks may have stayed home in droves.

The "sample" is not valid. Not at all! Period.

Please don't spin a falsehood - those polled are not a valid sample of Dem voters. It is a very weighted or skewed sample (if ya follow statistical measurement).

[TheJizzaking]

39. Exit Poll? Who are you?

Truthisall?

[Mass]

59. You mean that 45 % of people came just to say NO to Hillary when they did not have somebody on the

ballot? If this is true, this would be an extraordinary number and a bad sign for her. People do not come and vote if they do not have a candidate.

[earthlover]

63. Exit polls are supposed to say how people VOTED!

This is a bogus dumb suck poll. I can see why the Hillary Herd likes it.

Meaningless waste of time.

[PaDem]

81. and you honestly don't think the fact that......

voters knew that Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot didn't impact these numbers? I love how the Hillary folks are trying to make a mountain out of tonights mole hill of a victory for her.

[Clintonista2]

20. Reading comprehension Cali

They were EXIT POLLS. The people conducting the exit polls obviously asked respondents who they would have voted for if every candidate was on the ballot. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to make the connection.

[book_worm]

31. but what you people don't seem to understand is that Obama and Edwards

supporters wouldn't have any great reason to show up at the polls so these "exit polls" no doubt include a disportionate number of Hillary voters anyway. But keep spinning it when Hillary's name on the ballot can't even bring out a good turnout of voters.

[Sulawesi]

50. So insulting, yet missing he obvious point clearly made by several posters...

[fujiyama]

51. Ummm...Exit polls are given to people that actually WENT to vote in the first place

Many, if not most Edwards and Obama supporters didn't think it was worth their effort to go just to vote "uncommitted". I only did so because the polling place was nearby on the way home from work and there was no line. If there was, I would have just skipped it altogether.

It's impossible to infer much of anything with an "exit poll" with such a skewed sample. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

[LittleClarkie]

65. But why would Edwards and Obama people come out if their candidate wasn't on the ballot?

It's skewed toward Hillary.

[fujiyama]

43. Gravel and Dodd were also on the ticket

but considering the turnout among Dems in the state today, I'd be surprised if their combined vote total was in the double digits.

[rodeodance]

73. OOPS you forget Gravel----Lookie here:

http://www.20dc.com/miprimary.php

Jan. 15, 2008
MICHIGAN PRIMARY
Approximately 9 percent of precincts reporting.

HILLARY CLINTON 61%
JOHN McCAIN 31%

DENNIS KUCINICH 4%
MITT ROMNEY 37%

MIKE GRAVEL 1%
MIKE HUCKABEE 16%

BARACK OBAMA 0%
(not on ballot)
RUDY GUILIANI 3%

JOHN EDWARDS 0%
(not on ballot)
RON PAUL 6%

UNCOMMITTED 34%
FRED THOMPSON 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER 0%
Comments (18):

[featherman]

9. Fox News exit poll, I believe

"If these candidates were on the ballot, who....?

[MadBadger]

13. Numbers like this point to a win by Uncommitted!!!

[jefferson_dem]

14. So one-third of Hillary voters support Obama.

Excellent!

[FrenchieCat]

17. Without his name being on the ballot!

How about that?

[KennedyGuy]

18. whats WRONG with you Herman?

You KNOW the only reliable polls are the ones showing Obama ahead..
the rest are flawed..faulty..racist..and not correct.

[angie_love]

19. Erm

color me stupid but wasn't she the only one on the ballot? So it makes sense that more of her supporters would show up. DUH!

[sandnsea]

22. Would people please note where the racial polarization is coming from n/t

[cali]

28. Herman, the media or both? nt

[antiimperialist]

24. Didn't we agree that exit polls SUCK? n/t

[OzarkDem]

76. Exit polls are usually most accurate

except in this case, where most of the Dems were not on the ballot.

This exit poll reflects a skewed sample, mostly Republicans.

[book_worm]

27. according to NPR turnout in Michigan was dismal, so I guess without Obama and Edwards on ballot

a lot of people decided not to vote--which goes to show you how excited people would be about voting for her in November.

[Kahuna]

33. Hey Herman...

Go play in traffic.

[dionysus]

46. NOOOOOO!

someone could damage their vehicle if he did that!
:)

[fujiyama]

54. HAHA

He can take two other posters that come to mind with him...They can be his playmates.

[fujiyama]

34. An exit poll is meaningless when two of the candidates weren't even on the ballot

Many Dems didn't even bother going to the polls to vote for "uncommitted" because they felt their vote was a waste.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AX10]

37. Obama and his wife should never had made race an issue.

Tom Joyner and Company did nothing to help that though.
Remember this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/12/michelle-obama-black-am_n_72268.html

Michelle Obama: "Black America Will Wake Up And Get It"

I don't feign outrage over this post. We are tired of it.

[angie_love]

47. stop it!

By you talking about race YOU'RE BRINGING UP THE RACE ISSUE AGAIN. GET OVER IT. ITS DONE AND DONE.

[AX10]

52. Give it a break.

The Obamites are bringing up the race issue too. Quite often actually.

[angie_love]

58. Sooo

So if they jumped off a bridge would you? I honestly think Hil supporters love to keep this race thing perculating. I mean, I'm so over it, you should get over it too.

[book_worm]

48. it's been Bill, Hillary and their surrogates not Obama

[madrchsod]

49. got to be good "blacks " that don`t scare you?

ya they are tired of people like you

[AX10]

56. See. There you go again.

Claiming racism against anyone who points out a flaw in Obama.

[rodeodance]

72. AS a leader Obama waited days-let the media stir it up--THEN decided he

best say some remarks.

[dionysus]

40. are you borrowing lil 23%'s sheets? jeeebus!!!

quit while you're not THAT far behind!

[loveangelc]

41. FAIL.

[Barack_America]

42. Looks like Conyers' plan worked: Uncommitted is the winner!

Woo Hoo!

[benny05]

44. Does it matter?

Uncommitteds mean the most.

[madrchsod]

45. plus your post is bullshit

--"Whites don't like black candidates that are racially polarizing." you guys just can`t let it go can ya...












'

[Mass]

53. As a white person, I am personally offended by your post. I like Obama.\nt

[calteacherguy]

57. Wow, and Obama and Edwards weren't even on the ballot! nt

[Big Blue Marble]

60. Waste of time.

Why do like being a thorn here?

[rodeodance]

61. Edwards 31% (not on ballot)

[rodeodance]

62. NICE LINK HERE: 3%

http://www.20dc.com/miprimary.php

[rodeodance]

64. 5 %-Clinton 62%: Rommey slightly ahead of mcCain

[rodeodance]

66. DK with 6% of vote in has 4 %

[Name removed]

68. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Barack_America]

69. Also a lot of Obama and Edwards supporters voted for ROMNEY...

...I'm sure of it. Not clear whether that is reflected in the exit poll though.

[Thrill]

70. Another Day Another BS thread from Herman Munster

[rodeodance]

71. for reporting results. ????-----here are some more.

http://www.20dc.com/miprimary.php
Jan. 15, 2008
MICHIGAN PRIMARY
Approximately 6 percent of precincts reporting.

HILLARY CLINTON 62%
JOHN McCAIN 31%

DENNIS KUCINICH 4%
MITT ROMNEY 37%

MIKE GRAVEL 1%
MIKE HUCKABEE 17%

BARACK OBAMA 0%
(not on ballot)
RUDY GUILIANI 3%

JOHN EDWARDS 0%
(not on ballot)
RON PAUL 6%

UNCOMMITTED 33%
FRED THOMPSON 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER

[rodeodance]

74. lates results and LINK here:

http://www.20dc.com/miprimary.php

Jan. 15, 2008
MICHIGAN PRIMARY
Approximately 9 percent of precincts reporting.

HILLARY CLINTON 61%
JOHN McCAIN 31%

DENNIS KUCINICH 4%
MITT ROMNEY 37%

MIKE GRAVEL 1%
MIKE HUCKABEE 16%

BARACK OBAMA 0%
(not on ballot)
RUDY GUILIANI 3%

JOHN EDWARDS 0%
(not on ballot)
RON PAUL 6%

UNCOMMITTED 34%
FRED THOMPSON 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER 0%
Comments (18):

[OzarkDem]

75. Really low turnout, mostly Republicans

I don't think those exit polls say much.

[rodeodance]

77. ha--Ron paul ahead of Fred

[Capn Sunshine]

78. Didn't anyone get the memo?

If you write in or vote for someone NOT ON THE BALLOT your vote is null and void.
Only Hillary , Gravel and Kooch are on the ballot

[KamaAina]

79. Your Hillary avatar is showing

Whoopsie!

P.S. Some whites (like me) don't like candidate shills who play the race card gratuitously. So there.