Rasmusssen-Clinton 37% Obama 29% Edwards 16%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

From now on when I post a poll I will also post a link to the RCP Average so I'm not accused of cherry picking polls, ergo:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[itsrobert]

1. Clinton (-0) Obama (-1) Edwards (+1)

The tortoise beats the hare.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Thought You Liked Obama

~

[cali]

3. Why do people think posting banalities

makes any real point? Seriously, most of the time the hare beats the shit out of the tortoise.

[sufrommich]

17. lol! nt

[NoBorders]

4. Name recognition still working its magic

In most places.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Would Think Their Name Recognition Is Equal-At Least For Obama And Clinton

And even JRE got plenty of publicity when he was the vp candidate...

[NoBorders]

8. I don't think so

The Clintons still have way more name 'recognition' than Obama.

It's not just about having heard the name, it's also about having a stable image in mind when you hear the name. Most people already know, or think they know, who HRC is. And although most people have heard the name 'Obama', they don't really know who he is or what he's about, creating uncertainty in their minds. So they pick they candidate the know over the one they don't. It's basically the same reason why restaurant chains are usually more frequented than local joints along travel corridors. People know what they're getting.

[suston96]

6. Thanks. I usually do my own averages but this time I used RCP...

...and threw out the highs and lows for Clinton and Obama, and gee whiz - I came up with the same averages as RCP.

So it looks like RCP does similar factoring of outliers - numbers that are very different from the others.

I also make sure that the polling times are similar.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Did You Read My Link About Zomby?

~

[suston96]

9. Yes, I did. I usually try to get the story behind Zogby...I label him a maverick pollster....

He usually attempts to bring his polls up or down to the expected election result.

I think it is to be also expected that polls cannot keep up with the always changing if not volatile electoral mindset.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Maverick Is Charitable

Try charlatan...

Even when he's right he's wrong...

His final OO Cali poll had Gore winning by one he won by 12... In his final nat'l poll which he correctly showed Gore winning the pop vote his internals were beyond flawed...For instance he had Gore carrying the south...Even if you give Gore FL he lost the South by about twelve or so points...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. It's unfortunate this place is merely a spin room, because so many fascinating things going on

The dynamics of the "race story" are fascinating politics.

Hillary's performances on MTP and in the debate are fascinating politics... as noteworthy as anything I've seen, in terms of the nature and practice of politics.

The Republican race is pretty interesting, too.

But at this point a GDP poll of "who won debate X" will not vary 3% from who people want to win.

Most of the few who have a rich historical and practical understanding of politics treat their knowledge as just one more pile of data to mine selectively for half-truths and partisan talking points, and those without such a perspective are bellicose and prideful in their ignorance.

Ironically, an open forum for discussing politics has become the worst possible environment for discussing politics.

"The tragedy of the commons"

(Has nothing to do with OP... just a melancholy comment shared with DSB)

[CoffeeCat]

12. Why these national polls are worthless and irrelevant.............

It's been demonstrated now---in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina--that when the campaigns
roll into these states--that the national polls mean absolutely nothing.

What we've learned repeatedly, is that those polls are not relevant and they certainly do not reflect
the final outcome of the caucuses/elections that have been held or are about to be held in the next week or so.

Look at this data--that totally demonstrates how Hillary's leads have evaporated into slim margins, or have
disappeared entirely, with Obama taking the lead.

These numbers are from November 7--November 25 --just before the campaigns geared up in each of these states.
Pew/AP. CNN polls taken concurrently show similar numbers.

IOWA--- Hillary 31 percent, Obama 26 percent ****************Hillary +5
NEW HAMPSHIRE Hillary 38 percent, Obama 19 percent **********Hillary +9
SOUTH CAROLINA Hillary 45 percent, Obama 31 percent ***********Hillary +14
****************
NEVADA Hillary 51 percent, Obama 23 percent ****************Hillary +28
(CNN Nevada poll) http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/14/nevada.poll/index.html


FINAL/CURRENT results in these states:

IOWA: Obama won: 37.6, Hillary 29.5******************Obama +8
NEW HAMPSHIRE Hillary won: 39, Obama 37 ***************Hillary +2
SOUTH CAROLINA Most polls Obama by 10+ points *****Obama + 8-15
Nevada Obama 32, Hillary 30 *********************Obama +2
(Reno/Gazette Journal poll, 1/11---1/13)

[cobalt1999]

13. I'll start paying attention to the national polls before super Tuesday.

Until then, it's just a potential view of how that particular day will turn out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Super Tuesday Is A Nat'l Primary Or Close To One

The candidates will not have the money or time to seriously campaign in all the Super Tuesday states....

[CoffeeCat]

15. I would agree that Super Tuesday...

...results could be a bit closer to the National Polls.

However, these Super Tuesday results will be largely based on
who has the momentum going in.

Whoever wins NV and SC will have a significant advantage going into Super Tuesday.

In addition, the Democratic candidates are in these Super Tuesday states non stop.
They also have very large volunteer operations that are calling and canvassing, as
well as mailing and television-ad campaigns.

There are 11 days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. A great deal of
campaigning can be done in those 11 days.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. It's Up To The Media To Set Expectations Whether We Like It Or Not

The media narrative was that McCain was going to win Michigan and parlay that win into wins down the line and ultimately win the nomination...Now that narrative is in tatters, and the media is saying it's an open race again...

On the Democratic side, the media narrative is the Nevada caucus can be gamed (the irony) and that Obama should win South Carolina on the strength of the African American vote... If he doesn't win SC the media will say he underporformed...

I follow the money...Right not Vegas and the London gaming houses have Hillary as a 3-2 favorite... I think that's where the race stands...