Looking for DU's advice on Huckabee's odds.

[skipos]

Just for fun, I went to intrade and bet on Huckabee to win the nomination back when very few people were talking about him. I always thought I would hold onto my bet until South Carolina (which I thought he would win) or maybe Florida, cash out and use my profits to defeat the eventual Republican nominee I wasn't very confident he would actually get the nomination, but thought the southern states would boost his stock and the vaule of my bet. He has done surprisingly shitty in MI and NH, and continues to scare many Republicans away with all his "The Constitution should be amended to fit God's standards" crap. I thought he would drop the Jesus shit a bit, but it is looking like he won't. I now think he won't even win SC.

Here is my question: is there any evidence to suggest Huckabee might win any of the next few states? I am not seeing it. If anyone has any reason I should hold onto my bet, I'd like to hear it. I think I am going to dump his dumb ass today. The good thing is, I am stil up a couple hundred bucks which will all go towards helping Dems/ hurting Repubs.

[SteppingRazor]

1. He's got a good chance in South Carolina...

but he's doomed in Florida.

After that comes Feb. 5, and by the end of that day, I think he'll be in a solid second place, unless America is far crazier than I realize.

[cali]

2. go with your gut

even though I think he could pull out SC if enough evangelical fundies turn out.

[tekisui]

3. Florida is in a statistical four-way tie.

911/mcCain/fred/huckster.

It's anybody's guess.

Huckster vowed to win SC, FWIW.

[polichick]

4. Seems with that "Constitution & God" bit, he's proven himself to be...

Just another right-wing nutjob. imo he's not goin' anywhere.

[TwilightGardener]

5. Huckabee might win SC, but here's an interesting factoid: Romney

beat Huck handily among evangelicals in Michigan. I don't see Huck as having anything more than regional appeal, ultimately. And the negative push against him by Limbaugh and most conservative talking heads is eroding his support, I believe.

[skipos]

7. Where did you get that data? nt

[TwilightGardener]

10. Oops, on re-checking, I overstated his win with evangelicals--it wasn't

"handily", but he still won them:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/15/how-romney-won-economy-evangelicals-local-ties/

[Renew Deal]

6. I thought he had a shot until the constitution BS.

Now he just sounds like a lunatic. I'm hoping he steals some states to tie up the republican contest in knots.

[Essene]

8. He comes off as a charming moderate governor. He's a serious contender

I think of him as an insincere theocrat in disguise, but the truth is that he's very funny, he's very "down home," and he's fairly moderate on many issues... coming as a GOVERNOR.

I emphasize this last point, because any GOVERNOR who's winning primaries is inherently a very serious threat to democrats who are all from Congress. Americans may hate Bush, but they hate Congress even more. Last time we elected somebody from Congress was 1960. That's a very long "trend," folks.

If he sweeps southern states and garners more moderate fans, he's positioned to take Romney and Mccain out.

And even though i think he's a theocrat in disguise... his record as GOVERNOR doesn't indicate this, which is his fall-back position after he wins primary votes by pandering to the evangelicals. Indeed, Huckabee is a very serious contender who oughta scared democrats.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

11. However, his record as governor works against him in other way

He raised taxes, which is a big no-no amongst conservatives. He took local control from school districts via consolidation, which did nothing to increase quality of education (or even cut down on the number of school buildings) and which again raised taxes. The people who were most ticked off were from the very conservative northwest--in other words, he ticked off his base. He was so thoroughly disliked by members of his party by the time he left office that I wonder if he'll get a good showing in our primary here in Arkansas Feb. 5.

[PATRICK]

9. They'll rig Florida

I think you have to watch what the attacks are and where they are coming from and the intensity to know if they are going to burn him(forget the actual voters) sooner than later. Jeb pushes Romney. He is such a lousy candidate that the competition with someone more personable but undesirable might be spun to his
cultivation. To cultivate you need fertilizer and the plowing into the ground of a not-so-stooge narrow base rival is something for the expert farmer to time. I think McCain is being played with more intent to
lend something to Romney's chances(unintentionally perhaps) by manning a firewall of independents against any Reaganish reality suddenly challenging a stooge of the Bushes.

I still think(IMHO) and will repeat ad nauseam that the main plan is Romney/Thompson but by all means Thompson as Veep(why else is he kept staggering uselessly in the race?) so that his death by natural Bush causes will lend a way in for a deeper Bush stooge, likely Jeb himself. I say this plausible scenario in the fond hope some GOP reader will let a light bulb click in his head as to the farce their own primary has become under the uncriticized control of a dynasty.

(Why is Obama not in our spell checker but Romney is? Maybe the moderators know something?)

[Strawman]

12. I'd keep him until after South Carolina

Then I'd dump him. I think he can win there and boost his stock.