The reason I'm nervous about Nevada as a Hillary "bot"

[quinnox]

Obama can get a lot of support from independents and republicans who are mad at Bush. While Hillary will get mostly traditional Democrats and hard core Dems, Obama appeals to a different crowd.

Plus the union that endorsed Obama is practicing hardball tactics with its members to vote for Obama. This is from numerous news reports.

And its a caucus system, I don't like the causcus system or trust it for that matter, primaries are the way to go.

I'm nervous about Nevada, and an Obama win may be in the works. Not good, not good at all.

[sandnsea]

1. I heard the teachers were threatening

their members too. Oh wait, nobody would even think to find out whether teachers were being intimidated because we all know teachers are above reproach.

Except when they're disenfranchising service workers.

[quinnox]

4. Yea right

You "heard" this, I'll believe it when I see it in the news.

[sandnsea]

8. Yeah, I said you never would hear it

because nobody will ever think to ask a teacher or government worker a question of this type, because educated people are above reproach.

[ursi]

29. my hunney is a teacher. no one is being threatened by the teachers union...

in fact, most teachers do not listen to the teachers union.

[sandnsea]

32. sarcasm - but nobody would even ask

is my point.

Most teachers do not listen to the union? So the union does express an opinion to its members, just like the culinary union?? Oh yeah, they do.

[Egnever]

38. Absolutely

My wife is a teacher also. The teachers Union here is in large part a farce.

[sandnsea]

40. Still, nobody ever questions teachers' unions

or any other professional union. But these culinary workers, well they're just too..... to be trusted with a vote. That's the way this whole thing comes off and it's disgusting.

I don't know what kind of professional, unspoken, pressure teachers or other professionals might feel due to their unions. To think it can't exist is rather elitist to me.

[ronnykmarshall]

35. If some of these teachers are nuns ...

I think they might pull it off. Big ol' mean nuns w/ rulers.

:scared:

[sandnsea]

39. Did we go to the same grade school? lol n/t

[elizm]

57. Keep in mind it was not the teachers who filed the lawsuit...

It was the President of the Teacher's Union in Nevada who happened to be a Hillary supporter, at least as I understood it. It was not the teachers themselves. Now I am an Obama supporter, and I am a SC teacher where we do not have unions, but I do beleive we should not blame the teachers at this point. If I am wrong, please correct me! :)

[oasis]

2. I believe shenannigans are in the works. How do we know the union won't

shuttle caucus folk friends and spouses from one casino to another?

[quinnox]

6. we don't

Obama's union will go to any lengths to make him win apparently.

[aquart]

11. Setting up a straw man problem?

Why would they have to do that when they can intimidate the workers themselves?

[hedgehog]

30. As far as I know, you sign in and at a certain time, no one else is permitted to enter. nt

[Debi]

47. Yeah, like he did with all those college students in Iowa! n/t

[Skip Intro]

3. Hillary will win NV. She just may win SC too.

Relax.

[SoFlaJet]

9. and if she doesn't

all the HRC supporters will be on here whining about how everybody is against their candidate and Bill will be complaining about the system being "rigged"to whoever. Oh yea-I'm NOT an Obama supporter...she has won ONE primary-relax-it ain't over till it's over

[ronnykmarshall]

34. So tell us Miss Cleo ...

what will "all the HRC supporters" say? Please let me know in advance what I'm going to post. I type it up pronto and save it as a draft.

Thanks!

[SoFlaJet]

50. anybody ever tell you

you look a lot like Mrs Clinton in that avatar picture there RKM?

[ronnykmarshall]

51. So that's why Chris Mathews keeps bugging me!

[Auntie Bush]

45. Well. the Obama supporters have done a good job of setting an example

of whining (challenging the very veracity of the election and crying foul) so who are they to complain? It takes one to know one.

[aquart]

13. Please don't make that assumption.

We haven't a clue what is going to come out of those caucuses.

And if the casino caucuses are radically different from the regular one, how the hell can anyone challenge the result?

[Perky]

52. I am going to bookmark this.

[stillcool]

5. I can't get over this court document:

http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/2008/01/16/OppoDemsMTNRelief.pdf

[DURHAM D]

7. Do we want a nominee who was selected by Republicans

and Independents (disgruntled ex-Republicans)?

Apparently the Obama supporters don't have a problem with perversion of the selection process. Hope they like what they get from such a cynical ploy.

[quinnox]

10. That's the problem

If it was only Democrats participating, then I know Hillary would win.

I don't like this at all.

[DURHAM D]

22. I am a Hillary supporter but the bigger issue to me is

is that the selection process in caucus states has been so corrupted by non-Dems. I don't remember a prior election when a Dem candidate lead the charge on this sort of perversion. I know that there have always been pockets of Dem party folks trying to move the pieces around but this time it is different and detrimental for the party as a whole.

The caucus system is left over from the 19th century and needs to be buried. The very same people who scream about transparency, fair election processes and greater participation have taken their hypocrite pills this time.

I had yet another life long Republican tell me just yesterday that he is going to caucus for Obama because he doesn't want Hillary to be the nominee as he is afraid she will go after the corrupt Republican administration. He feels Obama will leave the past in the past.

[quinnox]

23. I strongly agree

The caucus system needs to go already, it can be manipulated and this is the 21st century. Primaries should be the standard and only way, one person one vote, no "caucus persuading" or any of that nonsense.

[aquart]

15. They'll love it.

I don't want Republicans or independents deciding Democratic candidates. Anywhere. Ever.

[jenmito]

20. Is it a BAD thing that Obama has cross-over appeal? That's how you win a general election in a

landslide rather than with 51% of the vote which could be stolen. Funny that Bill Clinton and the teachers' assoc. had no problem with the caucusing in casinos until a day after the CWU endorsed OBAMA.

[DURHAM D]

26. It is a bad thing if the cross over has mostly to do with

corrupting the Dem selection process.

And yes, a lot of Republican do want Obama to be the candidate and even the President if it has to be a Democrat because they believe that Obama will do nothing about the eight year Republican crime spree in Washington. They are afraid Hillary will come after them (in part because of the 16 year reign of terror they have put on the Clintons) because she is serious about and knows how to get a handle on the workings of our government.

I have heard over and over again that they don't trust her. When asked to explain why - the response is always that she will be vindictive. When asked vindictive toward who/what - the response is always "The Republicans".

My response is always - Good, I want to bury them. I want to do to them what the Estonians did to the Russians. I want to kick them out of the homes and businesses they stole and send them back to Siberia.

[jenmito]

31. There's no way that the cross-over appeal isn't really appeal but "corrupting the Dem.

selection process." He CLEARLY has REAL cross-over appeal I've heard it over and over and over by real people as well as seen it in polls.

I have no idea where you get the idea that people believe Obama would do nothing about the past 8 years. He's been the most aggressive of the top 3 in changing the corruption in Washington. Hillary is beholden to special interests/lobbyists/big money. The Repubs. aren't afraid of her-they just hate her.

[DURHAM D]

33. I thought I told you where the idea that Obama will do nothing

about chasing Republican corruption - I get it from Republicans.

I did not say that I believe it. What I said was they believe it.

[jenmito]

54. That's bull...

They know his record. They still like him because he's honest and not polarizing like Hillary and now Edwards.

[Jai4WKC08]

56. They won't

After 6 +/- months of slander by the Repubs, he'll be just as hated and feared as Hillary. Question is, will he have the backbone and the organization to stand up to it?

Remember, Kerry was the most electable too.

[jenmito]

58. I disagree...

He doesn't have a history against the Repubs. like the Clintons do. The Repubs. have hated the Clintons for over a decade. Obama, on the other hand, is liked and respected across the spectrun. And Obama DOES have both the backbone AND the organization to stand up to anything they'd throw at him. He already is fighting against TWO Clintons-one being arguably the most popular Dem. president (to DEMS.) ever.

[Jai4WKC08]

64. It doesn't matter

The GOP will make up a history. And he isn't "liked and respected across the spectrum" of GE voters because he isn't known to 90% of them. Your average voter doesn't pay any attention during the primary season.

I hope you're right about standing up to anything they throw at him. But don't for a minute think that he has seen ANYthing from the Clintons like he's gonna get from the 'pugs, assuming he gets that far. It will be several orders of magnitude of difference.

[papau]

12. An Obama NV win - "not good"? - I disagree - the larger the participation the better and if that

results in an Obama win, or an Edwards win, or a Hillary win - it makes no difference.

I expect Hillary to lose both SC and NV and win Florida before 2/5. That said - except for national momentum via spin from those wins - the decider will be 2/5. Obama will spin the Florida win as unimportant as no delegates at stake - despite the strong Obama campaign in Florida. If he can sell that to the media - he will enter 2/5 the favorite.

[flpoljunkie]

14. Did you express these concerns about caucuses before Iowa? Obama brings possibility of giving us a

working majority for change. This ought to be encouraging to all Democrats.

[aquart]

18. Before Iowa I didn't know how exclusionary caucuses are.

And, coming from a primary state with a secret ballot, I had no idea how they work.

I'm shocked that any state would pretend such a system is democratic.

[loveangelc]

16. NV is Hillary's to lose

she is up 5 points in the latest Zogby poll I read...

[aquart]

19. 5 points is hardly a secure lead in this election.

[Renew Deal]

17. I don't know what to make of it all.

I would keep an eye on Bill and Hillary today. If they get hysterical, they're in trouble.

Turnout is the big question. If turnout is like Iowa and NH (around 50%) this is probably good for Hillary (over 100,000 voters). I think it's going to be around 60K-70K. 10% turnout of Culinary and SEIU for Obama is only 7700 voters. I'd say at least 15% will turnout and vote for Obama. That's 11,500 voters. Hillary can probably overcome that. Then again, in the caucus format it's all about winning the individual caucuses. If Hillary's support is concentrated and Obama's is widespread, he'll have an advantage.

I think the unions aer planning to win. They put their name on the line. If they get something like 40-50% turnout of 77,000 (culinary and SEIU), I see no way that Obama loses.

[aquart]

21. Are you sure it's the rank and file for Obama?

And not just the leadership?

[Renew Deal]

36. It's impossible to tell the difference.

I did say in my OP that I was talking about the % that would vote for Obama. It's going to be difficult for people to break away from their union. Still, it may not be enough.

Think about it another way. 9,000 people showed up in 2004. If 10% of the culinary union show up, that's 6,000 people right there.

[aquart]

55. But their votes carry more weight.

Which may end up making the difference.

[sunonmars]

24. The question is will bosses let the employees out

The casino bosses dont have too, they can notoriously be slow processes. Bosses will be reluctant to let so many go to the caucuses, so who gets to choose who go. Is it random or will union leave Hillary supporters working while Obama supporters get to go.

Of course Casino bosses may decide to get one up on the union bosses and block people going. Its not inconceivable.

[Renew Deal]

37. Yes, but 100% of people will not be working.

And I'm sure the union has thought this out. They will probably accomodate their people.

[sunonmars]

41. Apparently if they are not working

They would have to vote in their home precinct.

[Renew Deal]

42. Right

[Debi]

46. If they are w/in one hour of work they can attend the at large caucus

<snip>
Attendance and Registration Requirements for At-Large Precinct Caucuses
1. At-Large Precincts Caucuses are designed specifically to service shift workers
who work during or within one hour of the Nevada Democratic Party Caucuses
start-time (11:30am), and who could not return to their home precinct caucus in
time to participate.
2. Shift workers will be required to bring their Employer Identification card or badge
to their assigned At-Large Precinct Caucus to be eligible to participate in the At-
Large Precinct Caucus. The Employer ID card will serve as proof of shift worker
status.
3. Shift workers will also sign a declaration stating that they could not attend their
home Precinct Caucus because they worked during or within one hour of the
designated caucus start time

<snip>


Here are the rules:
http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/images/draftdelselupdated_o...

[FrenchieCat]

25. I am not nervous about Nevada......

and am interested to see how it will turn out.

Just keep in mind what Hillary's pollster stated a week or so ago as an historical; that Hispanics don't vote for Black people. When one adds the fact that Obama has been exposed for requesting a 1 trillion dollar tax increases (technically not true in context) over 10 years as Hillary campaign flyers assert, And considering that Obama dared mention that Reagan won landslides by capturing the mood of the electorate of that time (which puts him in the doghouse with Democrats), I would'nt be so worried if I were you. I daresay, this should be of some solace to you.

[ShadowLiberal]

27. I'm nervous about Nevada for the opposite reason

I think if Obama loses Nevada then him the democratic party are in big trouble. There's no way we can win with any candidate with unfavorable ratings as high as 50%.

[ursi]

28. you must not live in Nevada? You should have seen all the candidates here

It's been amazing and too close to call.

[BringBigDogBack]

43. Hope you're right.

[Perry Logan]

44. But the Obama people smear Hillary a bit less when they've had a victory.

[Deep13]

48. I was thinking the same exact thing. nt

[Unsane]

49. Hillary is the frontrunner in NV.

An Obama win there would be an upset (and quite a comeback story).

[Hersheygirl]

53. You have nothing to worry about.

[ZinZen]

59. Just my instincts but

I think Hillary will win tomorrow. I think CalTeacher is right that Hillary has had the Dem party apparatus, hispanic support and more name recognition. I think Obama will win SC.

I will be off enjoying wine tasting tomorrow so I don't get too depressed about the results.

[Nedsdag]

60. Calm down.

She'll win.

[flpoljunkie]

61. Andrea M says Hillary has Harry Reid's organization behind her, even though he's "not endorsed" her.

Yet, Joe Scarborough says Hillary has won the expecations game here. Hasn't she been way ahead in the polls in Nevada until recently, and is ahead in the polls today?

Talk about spinning for Hillary by all the crew on HARDBALL. Scarborough is working very hard for Hillary's nomination, as we all know. Tweety is setting it up very nicely for her, as well.

[jenmito]

62. I agree. Hillary's ALWAYS been ahead in NV. So how can it be an "upset" if she "pulls this off"?

Just because Obama won the CWU endorsement doesn't change the fact that Hillary is the favorite with the best organization there.

[K Gardner]

63. You're right. The coverage today has been absolutely disgusting. I still don't

know how they get away with it.