Knowing What We Know Now: Electability in the GE

[gdaerin]

Does anyone know what percentage of independants are women, or black, or women and black?

Also, does anyone know if independants have been polled nationally to see which side they will lean to if Hill is the nom. or if Obama is?

Seems like Obama brings in black but Hillary brings in more Whites and Latinos. On Edit: Also Hillary brings in more women, does Obama bring in more men?

Obviously in the GE, the dem. cand. is going to get all the democrats, but what about the independants? Do the dems need independants to win the GE?

[robbedvoter]

1. You forgot...women - 59% of them came today....

[polichick]

2. Even Republican women are excited about voting for Hillary...

Or so some talking heads said earlier.

[gdaerin]

7. Ok, I don't listen to Talking Heads, but I agree

which would be good for the dems in the GE, but can we guess at a % of republican women that would cross over? Also, what % of Republicans are women?

[Nedsdag]

4. Yep!

All it took were tears.

Another pyrrhic victory for Hillary.

[peacebird]

3. Hillary also brings more evangelicals and Republicans out to the polls to vote against her in the GE

and Obama might well lose the "good ol' boys"

Yes - Dems need the independents, and no it is not "obvious" that the nominee will get all the democrats. There are plenty of us who will not vote if HRC is the nominee.

[msongs]

5. welcome to the republican party then nt

[gdaerin]

6. What do you think the percentage

of dems that Hillary could lose would be? Can we put a number to that, or is that impossible?

[peacebird]

8. my gut says it doesn't matter - HRC will be annointed and the DLC will be happy.

And then HRC will get her hat handed to her in the GE, and we will have a republican in the White House.

I don't see it happening any other way. Sad.

[gdaerin]

11. but No!! There has to be another way, there's no way

the party leadership would not be thinking about electability in the GE already

[gdaerin]

10. This is what scares me the most - Hill bringing out more Repukes to vote Repuke

But, how do we know that the Repugs wouldn't be able to get the evangelicals and Republicans to get riled up over Obama?

If we need the independants then shouldn't we be focusing on who They will vote for?

[Tulkas]

9. Clinton's Negatives

are to high to risk putting her up against McCain

Most polls have Obama pulling votes form the middle better than Hillary can.

[gdaerin]

13. hmmmm, but if it's really close we can just rig some of the elections right?

I don't know about you, but I'm under the impression that electronic vote rigging is present in our elections today to a certain extent.

[Tulkas]

15. hope not

IF it is that close, then the Republicans may be able to get away with it.


Obama would have a larger margin of victory (in most places)

[gdaerin]

21. But why can't the dems cheat too?

I mean, obviously cheating is bad, but I'm curious, is there a specific reason why Repukes would be able to get away with it and Dems less likely to?

[robbedvoter]

18. "close" has nothing to do with it. 6 million votes wasted nationally in 2000, probably more

in 2004.(ask your discreet candidates) When you steal, stealing big is as easy as stealing small.

[gdaerin]

20. So which candidates would be able to cheat more?

Shouldn't that figure into who we nominate also? For instance, would Clinton's corporate and special interest ties help her cheat more than one of the republicans?

[robbedvoter]

22. As ALWAYS, the Republican - since they owe the voting machines and the lack of scruples

[elizm]

12. What we know....Hillary will lose. nt

[gdaerin]

14. Ok, that's not very enlightening, what are the numbers that tell us that? nt

[Tulkas]

16. we don't know that

I heard about a poll on CNN today that put 2% win for Hillary against Huckabee and a 12% win for Obama against Huckabee

Not that this one poll is the end all and be all of polls, but it does fit the pattern we are all afraid of. (also Evangelists tend to turn up in greater numbers than pollsters account for)

[elizm]

17. Here ya go...

Just one of the many arguments. And I do believe that John McCain will be the nominee.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/hotlinediageo_national_dem_race_close_mccain_leads_gop.php#more

The general election match-ups also show that while any of the Democrats could beat most of the Republicans, Barack Obama is more electable than either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards — and it's not even close. John McCain is the most electable Republican, trouncing Edwards and narrowly edging Clinton, but loses to Obama in a statistical dead heat. Those numbers are available after the jump.

Generic Democrat 48%, Generic Republican 33%
Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 42%
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%
Obama (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 31%
Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 40%
Obama (D) 57%, Romney (R) 27%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 39%
Obama (D) 56%, Giuliani (R) 34%
Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Edwards (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 31%
McCain (R) 48%, Edwards (D) 40%
Edwards (D) 48%, Huckabee (R) 33%
Edwards (D) 50%, Romney (R) 34%

[Samantha]

23. Look at the numbers from NV tonight - Ron Paul had 1,000 more

votes than Hillary Clinton the last time I looked. NOW THAT IS STARTLING.

[gdaerin]

24. Oh no, I think you're making the same mistake I made earlier,

the numbers for the dems are state delegates I think and the republican figures are actual votes,

[Samantha]

25. I was looking at this:

Take a look at these vote totals posted by the New York Times:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NV.html

Nevada’s Caucuses
Recent results: Iowa | Mich. | Nev. | N.H. | S.C. | Wyo. | More » Next contests: Fla. | More »
Results

25 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged
Candidate Vote % Delegates
Hillary Rodham Clinton 5,353 50.7%
Barack Obama 4,771 45.2
John Edwards 395 3.7
Uncommitted 31 0.3
Dennis J. Kucinich 5 0.0
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 0 0.0
Christopher J. Dodd 0 0.0
Mike Gravel 0 0.0
Bill Richardson 0 0.0
98% reporting | Updated 9:08 PM ET

Candidate Vote % Delegates
Mitt Romney 22,629 51.1%
Ron Paul 6,077 13.7
John McCain 5,641 12.7
Mike Huckabee 3,607 8.1
Fred D. Thompson 3,518 7.9
Rudolph W. Giuliani 1,907 4.3
Duncan Hunter 890 2.0
99% reporting | Updated 9:08 PM ET

[gdaerin]

19. You know what I think?

This is pure speculation, but

what if the Repukes are purposefully letting their playing field look completely fragmented so the Dems can't figure out early on who we'll be running against?

Let's get real, are we naive enough to think the Republican leadership hasn't already picked their man?

And, surely the democrat leadership has thought of this right?