The problem that the Obama campaign is facing is that they are...

[WCGreen]

basing a good portion of their strategy on energizing "new" and "young" voters...

I hope this time that it works...

But history proves it is almost, almost I say, a suckers bet...

Just ask McGovern...

And yet where else could he have gone...

Clinton has a good chunk of the "Latte", in my day we called them "Limousine", Liberals in her camp via her insider network and Bill's de facto position as a leader of that wing of the party...

I give Obama and his handlers a lot of credit since they have picked off a significant number of political figures that in any other election would have been solidly in Clinton's camp...

The big surprise to me is Edwards failure to catch any kind of momentum...

In any other year, when he wouldn't be bucking against the tides of history that Obama and Hillary are riding, he would have, more than likely been the nominee...

So it goes down to the wire...

Obama has the African-American vote trending his way and yet that segment of the voting population is not known as a solid primary vote...

Come November the AA community will show up in significant numbers...

But in primaries, the turnout in Black districts trends lower than the general population...

The Latte Liberals, on the other hand, are known for their commitment come primary election day...

So the Obama campaign is basing a lot of their strategy on GOTV in populations that, historically, do not turn out for primary elections...

Obama needs to pop a significant victory in South Carolina in order to keep those fringe supporters energized all the way through the rest of the primary season...

Clinton, on the other hand, can afford a few close races as long as the delegates keep piling up...

It could really come down to the convention with Hillary having a first ballot edge because of the super delegates who are, more than likely, going to be with her, at least on the first run through the states...

If she can't get it on the first ballot, look for liberal guilt to kick in and move toward Obama...

As for my guy, Edwards, well, he gave it a good ride but he is just running in the wrong year...

And his supporters will, more than likely, split between the two front runners...

This is just my take on the whole race for the nomination to this point...

The nomination could very well end up on the floor of the convention...

And that, to this fifty year old dude, would be something...

[kstewart33]

1. Good post.

Whoever wins, I hope they win quickly. We don't need a dogfight this summer at the convention.

My best hunch - McCain and Hillary get the nod. Obama's made some mistakes in the last week (what was he smoking when he gave time to Reagan?), and Hillary's got mo going into SC. If Obama can't win there, he's done. Just like Huck is finished, as of tonight.

Funny thing about South Carolina. They almost always determine the nominee.

[knight_of_the_star]

14. Actually I think if we fought it out at the convention it would work better

Maybe then we would get a real platform and something more solid than just a bunch of quick primary wins.

[MadBadger]

2. I think we shouldnt underestimate Obama's GOTV in the black community.

[WCGreen]

4. All we can really is wait and see...

If he has to spend a significant amount of energy getting the Black Community to the polls, that will detract from his time wooing those Latte Liberals and Labor dudes who like to be smooshed...

[MadBadger]

5. I dont think he has to spend a significant amount of energy

I think he will get that support that he needs. I see him getting 70 percent of the black vote, which makes up 50 percent of the primary. That should give him at least 35%.

[WCGreen]

9. Older Black Women are the most likely reliable voters in the

African American community...

The local preachers are the most relied upon figure in the traditional Black community...

How those two important segments of the Black Community go, so goes the Black vote...

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. Obama has really energized the young this year...

He made sure his message got out, and those folks heard him...

I too am surprised about Edwards...

I thought he would catch fire, but no...Apparently not...

I'm still undecided as to who to vote for in the California primary...

I may just take a quarter into the voting booth!

Excellent analysis...

K&R

:patriot:

[sandnsea]

6. She has DLC Democrats, not any liberals at all

She had some Clinton stalwarts who do not want any kind of change, and women's groups who are gender over everything else. The "limousine" liberals are more for Obama, except the women who stick with Hillary. Obama actually needs to get into poor neighborhoods because, for whatever reason I don't understand, neither Edwards or Obama are getting through to them.

And Edwards would be doing much better if he'd FIRE JOE TRIPPI.

[WCGreen]

10. The sad fact is that poor communities do not vote in primaries...

and barely turnout in the general...

[sandnsea]

13. That is where her votes are coming from

She is winning with lower income and high school graduate workers. The educated vote, the "limousine" liberal, is going to Obama. She won NH with women and working class. Go look at the stats yourself.

And who the hell do you think the culinary workers were today?

[spooky3]

15. In NV, HRC won more support than BO in all income categories except one

The $75K - $100K category.

She won the $100K and over as well as all the categories below $75K. (assuming you have any faith in the entrance poll data)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM

Remember also that in the general election, the demographics of groups supporting each candidate may be quite different.

[sandnsea]

17. Obama won rural NV

So, no, I don't have any faith in that particular poll. However it does show exactly what I said, Clinton wins the lower income people, significantly. So I guess they DO vote, contrary to WCGreen's remark that they don't, which was my main point. And they do vote for Hillary, which makes absolutely no sense and would end immediately if people remember the Clintons opened China and Indian trade.

[spooky3]

18. she wins the lower income voters, but she also wins the moderate income

($50K-$75K) and people above $100K. And she didn't lose the $75-$100K people by much.

You can't have it both ways; you can't use the data to support your point but ignore the data where they don't support your point.

[sandnsea]

19. Did poor people vote?

Why yes, yes they did. Which, again, was my key point.

Did Hillary win that vote? yes she did.

Did Obama win the vote of the most educated, the "limousine" liberal in NEW HAMPSHIRE? yes he did.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

What is your problem?

[Little Star]

7. Rezko + Fitz= big trouble if O gets the nod.

[HeraldSquare212]

12. Ron Burkle and the rest of billionaires Bill has been hanging around with

not to mention the people he has associated with to get donations to his fund, spell big trouble if Clinton gets the nomination. the Clinton's aren't fully vetted yet.

[SeattleGirl]

8. I would love to see a brokered convention. n/t

[WCGreen]

11. Likewise...

It would shake things up a bit and the ratings would be through the roof...

[Perry Logan]

16. It's the Rovean tactics of Obama's supporters that are most serious.