Independents desert GOP in South Carolina : Down 55%

[Perky]

South Carolina Primary Exit Polls

South Carolina Primary Exit Polls

2000 Primary
Total 100% 573,101
Republicans 61% 349,592
Democrats 9% 51,579
Independents 30% 171,930


2008 Primary
Total 100% 430,919
Republicans 80% 344,735
Democrats 2% 8,618
Independents 18% 77,565

Difference
Total -25% (142,182)
Republicans -1% (4,856)
Democrats -83% (42,961)
Independents -55% (94,365)

These numbers actually bode well for Obama in that independents are more disposed to him thAn Hillary and they did not vote in the GOP Primary,


As always turn out is key, But it certainly looks good.

Exit poll data
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epol...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep....


2000 vote totals

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/scprimresults.html

[jefferson_dem]

1. Obama's huge advantage among Independents and African-Americans...

should propel him to a big victory in SC.

...We hope.

[fasttense]

2. I'm having trouble understanding your numbers.

Are you saying that the turnout was 25% less than in the 2000 Primary or are you saying the peopled polled were less than in 2000?

[Perky]

4. I took the total votes cast in the GOP Primary

and divided it into the exit poll results on party affiliation

GOP shnage was effectively flat

the small Dem vot in the GOP primary was down substantially, but that is to be expected.

But there was a 95,000 drop in independent voters

[rox63]

3. Much fewer Dems and Independents voted in the repuke primary this time

Compared to 2000. Any idea what the numbers were for 2004?

[Perky]

5. No GOP primary in 2004, Bush was unopposed.

[LiberalFighter]

6. Using 2004 would not be useful as there was no or little challenge to dingbat Bush

[kevinmc]

7. Link? n/t

[Perky]

8. I took the exit poll results from both

and did the math myself

Exit poll data
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#SCREP

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep.html


2000 vote totals

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/scprimresults.html

[kevinmc]

9. Thank YOU 8-)

I believe you ... I want to use those numbers and wanted to know where they came from.

[Perky]

10. No Problem

[Perky]

11. kick

[IsItJustMe]

12. I don't understand all the numbers, but a thought did occur to me. It could mean that more

independants chose sides, either Rep or Dem. Which would therefore reduce their numbers.

[Perky]

15. Look at the GOP numbers....They were identical to 2000

[MadBadger]

13. In the South, I'm not sure Obama gets the Indys

I think they would go to Hillary and Edwards. Obama did very well in all white states of Iowa and NH, but those were in the north. In the South, he does very poorly among whites and those indy's will be whites.

[Perky]

14. Well very clearly the independent were not impressed with the GOP cast

I find it difficult to believe if they voted for McCain in 2000, that they would either sit it out althoghether or vote for Hillary in 2008.

They have to go somewhere. Dpends on who they are obviously but I have to believe that Obama is going to be the clear beneficiary of that largess.

He will probably pick up white mael independents far more than hillary. How the women shake out is going to be very interesting. goven how thing went the first three tilts.

Is South Carolina more like Iowa or New Hampsire? It certainly is not like Nevada. Nothing is like Nevada.

[MadBadger]

16. If white dems are not really supporting Obama in SC, I find it harder to believe white indys will.

[Perky]

17. well they are ot going to vote in the GOP primary.

and, due respect. they are not going to vote for Edwards in huge numbers.


He is going to have to campiagn agressively for their support, but indy's probably are looking for competence rather than ideology,