SUPER-delegates to determine candidate not popular delegates. No brokered convention.

[rhett o rick]

If you are looking forward to a brokered convention, I don’t think so.

One Democrat party person told me that the Party gives 40% of delegates to entrenched politicians and calls them SUPER-delegates.

Super is to distinguish them from the rest of the lowly regular delegates. The reason is that they (the super) know best.

According to the AP Sen Clinton has 39% of popular delegates but 55% of total delegates when SUPER-delegates are included.

Looks to me like Obama and Edwards are out of luck unless one backs out before the convention.

If I am wrong about this, please tell me.

[NMDemDist2]

1. it's not that high, IIRC it's about 780 supers to the 3200+ regular delegates

works out to about 20% of total delegates. and they can change their minds right up to the Convention.

but you're right, we won't have a brokered convention, the supers will get onboard somewhere to make sure we have a candidate

[rhett o rick]

2. this is where i got my info.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

[NMDemDist2]

3. my info according to CNN

There are currently 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025.
• Superdelegates in the Democratic Party are typically members of the Democratic National Committee, elected officials like senators or governors, or party leaders. They do not have to indicate a candidate preference and do not have to compete for their position. If a superdelegate dies or is unable to participate at the convention, alternates do not replace that delegate, which would reduce the total delegates number and the "magic number" needed to clinch the nomination.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D

edit to add, that page at your link also shows 796 supers

[rhett o rick]

5. Ok thanks for the correction. It wouldn't be quite so bad but still not good.

The results to date tho show the super-delegates determining the winner contrary to popular vote. Or am I misreading this too.
I am learning here.

[NMDemDist2]

6. the thing about supers is they can change their minds anytime. right now HRC

has a lot of them on board (174) to BHO's 86?

the supers are pretty fluid though, they can jump ship anytime including at the Convention.

what's cracking me up on all this "Obama really won Nevada" stuff is that technically, if you look at the numbers, Clinton and Obama tied in Iowa by delegate count. so did Obama win Iowa? not really since they split the delegates, did Clinton win Nevada? not really since the delegate count was split 50/50 there too.

it's politics, what can ya do :shrug:

[MaineDem]

8. And all superdelegates don't bother going to the convention

They aren't replaced by Alternates either.

[NMDemDist2]

9. true n/t

[flyarm]

4. she may have 39% of the delegates .."of the states that have voted so far"

she does not have 39% of the total delegates..

none of the big states have voted yet.

she has 39% ( ?) of a couple of the smallest states with the lowest number of delegates.

fly a 2004 dem delegate in fla.

[OHdem10]

7. Reporters have been pointing out the fact that because of

rules and delegate assignments in the end Hilary is the nominee.

At some point we might be better off not to waste energy bashing
Hilary.

Yes we need changes in the party, but as the election grown closer
it is better to a Democrat in the WH . As soon as election is over
join in movement to really get the heart and soul of Democratic
Party in its proper place.

[rhett o rick]

10. In post 3 I was corrected that it is about 24% in lieu of 40% Super-delegates. nm

[Jai4WKC08]

11. It won't be close enough to be decided by super-delegates

Whoever wins Super Tuesday will get all the follow-on states.

Granted it's possible that Super Tuesday will split right down the middle. But with the overwhelmingly large number of delegates in play, the odds of that are very very slim.