Analysis: Momentum shifts to Clinton

[onehandle]

Source: AP

FLORISSANT, Mo. - Political momentum now shifted her way, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton flew to Missouri, a key Feb. 5 battleground state, while rival Barack Obama hoped to rejuvenate his candidacy with the help of black voters in the South.

"Now we're back here in the Midwest, where I'm from. I'm so happy to see all of you," Clinton, a Chicago native, said to cheers at a campaign rally late Saturday in this St. Louis suburb.

Nevada's presidential caucuses gave Clinton a big boost, powering her to a second straight win over Obama in the first Western contest of the 2008 calendar. She bested Obama among women, as she did in New Hampshire, and showed significant strength among Hispanic voters — an important and growing segment of the Democratic electorate in the mountain West and key states like California, Florida and New York.

The Nevada results still spelled trouble for Obama, whose stunning victory in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3 has begun to fade amid evidence of his vulnerability among important demographic groups, especially white, working-class Democrats and women.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080120/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_dems_analysis

[HeraldSquare212]

1. They're both going to be in all the way.

Momentum doesn't really matter now. He'll win SC and then we'll see stories he's got momentum, etc. It doesn't matter, it's all about campaign operations now.

[ClassWarrior]

2. All three, by the looks of it...

Which is excellent.

Go John! And Barack! And Hillary!

NGU.

[sunonmars]

4. I cant see any momentum for him out of SC

The media is just laying it on thick that the AA's will vote en masse for him, anything short of a massive win in SC there will be disastrous for him.

His expectation in SC is way too high for him. If all the white voters come out against him next week like they have for Hillary so far, that could be trouble, this fracture along race lines is disturbing and amplified even more in SC. If its so much as perceived as he only won it because the AA's voted on mass, then that is trouble for his campaign going into ST.

For SC to matter really he had to win the Nevada caucus vote. Clinton is getting all the press and momentum from that. It just got very difficult for him last night.

The pundits all said it was a "must win" at all costs state and he put effort in but still came up short. Screw the delgate thing, that doesnt matter, the only thing people will see is Hillary taking 51% of the vote, thats it.

[HeraldSquare212]

6. I agree about SC but I didn't see anyone calling NV a must-win for Obama.

A loss by Clinton might have hurt her, because then SC would be next. A big loss by Obama might have hurt him, because people would again question his viability. Right now, it will be status quo until Feb 5th.

[sunonmars]

7. here you go

CNN's Don Lemon - 'A victory in Nevada could be huge for the winning campaign.'

MSNBC's Joe Scarborough - 'Boy, I’ll tell you what, a Nevada win would be very big for Hillary Clinton.'

NBC News' Andrea Mitchell - 'Clearly, if she were to pull this off in Nevada, that is a big win for her.'

MSNBC's Chris Matthews - 'It just seems to me if Hillary Clinton wins this one... she’s back in the lead big-time.' "It just seems to me if Hillary Clinton wins this one, after all the hoopla and hopes in some quarters about Barack Obama winning two in a row... that she’s back in the lead big-time."

Newsday's Glenn Thrush - 'Nevada is a vital, if not essential, prize for both candidates.'

NY Observer's Steve Kornacki - 'Barack Obama needs Nevada more than Hillary Clinton does.' "Barack Obama needs Nevada more than Hillary Clinton does... it’s Obama’s best - and only chance - of turning February 5 into something other than a fatal draw."

Obama National Feild Director Temo Figueroa 'The Nevada election is going to come down to: Whoever gets the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, more than likely, is going to win Nevada'

I cant remeber where i heard it, but i definitely heard a "must win state"

[HeraldSquare212]

8. They don't say it's a must-win

Must-win means if you don't win you're out, not that you get a big boost if you do win.

[sunonmars]

12. here's one

Here's one i remember reading


http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?bid=1&pid=272166

A Must-Win State for Obama

[opihimoimoi]

3. She got the Big Mo right now....

[rodeodance]

11. and the Big Mo--is very important

[Mass]

5. Clearly, the media wants her in. It is becoming sadly obvious. She won a small victory in a state

where she was expected to win and it is a boost.

Actually, the story should be that Obama is close second, in a state where the leading Democrats had endorsed her.

[natrat]

14. yea , the million $ question is do they want her in to lose the general or installed in 1600

conventional wisdom would seem they just want an easy target but all that corporate money going to her must know something---regardless it's all bullshit sham like most of american public discourse

[humbled_opinion]

9. Media giving her special

Consideration.. watch how they rock Obama over this corruption case... This is typical corrupt media influence.. can yoy say PRAVDA>

[rodeodance]

10. Yes, she has the MOMENTUM--and a scoreboard of 3:1

[sunonmars]

13. with you there Rodeo

[NorthCarolina]

15. The DLC Will Not Be Thrown Out of the Democratic Party

by any insignificant voters who would like to think otherwise. The DLC is the downfall of the Democratic Party.

[LibDemAlways]

16. And, ironically, if you asked the average Dem voter

about the influence of the DLC, they wouldn't know what you're talking about. The DLC does an excellent job of keeping itself invisible while working behind the scenes to serve up repuke-lite status quo candidates who won't rock the boat to any measurable degree.

The whole thing's a sham.

[NorthCarolina]

18. It's Pretty Easy to Find Out About the DLC on Wikipedia

they have complete info on the DLC agenda, AND a link to a complete listing of DLC members. It is this conservative DLC infiltration of pro-corporate elitists that Kucinich is fighting so hard against from within the Democratic Party. I repeatedly hear people say "why doesn't Kucinich leave the Democratic Party", but if you take the time to listen to his response you will discover that he is fighting from the inside to return the party to its Democratic roots as an advocate for the people. A very noble pursuit IMHO.

[rayofreason]

17. Nevada was a setup.

I think the Clinton's knew they were going to win, that their inside pollsters and analysts had called it. So they built themselves up as the underdog, the victim of union strong-arm tactics. That way the political effect of the win would be magnified and, as is happening, the pundits would crown Queen Hillary as undisputed leader. Obama's expected win in SC will not count for much, since it is, well, expected.

Primary politics is so much about image and perceived momentum. Reality has a hard time competing with smoke, mirrors, and traps like the one laid in Nevada.

[RiverStone]

19. Actually, Obama made the biggest comeback in NV.

If if you recall, Clinton was ahead there by 20+ points a few months ago - look it how close it ended up and Obama even got one more delegate.

No need to panic --- Obama's about to hit a home run! :)

[Cha]

20. I like your

attitude, dude!

[CyberPieHole]

21. LOL...talk about putting some "spin" on Obama's loss in Nevada...

You think Obama will get his Jomemtum? I think people are wising up to the snake oil salesman and opting for an experienced woman to lead the country into prosperity. Hillary Clinton will do that. Obama will only promise you pie in the sky.

[RiverStone]

22. Hillary is so bought by the corporations...

That she and her old guard allies will lead us where we have been led before. I can't fathom how folks see her as an agent of change - she is nothing but an agent of the status quo.

But ya know Cyber - your mind is made up and all the rants from me won't do a dang thing to change that.

Obama has been my default candidate - no Gore and Kucinich was out of the running a couple of months ago. Edwards need a miracle in SC next week (probably won't happen). Obama is a uniter - Hillary is so divisive even among Dems.

I can't fathom why folks would want to move forward with such a divisive candidate?

But I'm sure you have a good reason (won't change my mind either).