What happens now... IF Obama Loses SC?

[Tellurian]

is he still in the game at 4-1?

What are the possibilities as Hillary's momentum increases nationwide?

[Fresh_Start]

1. I don't believe that will happen

if it does it clearly helps Clinton but doesn't put Obama out of the race.

[Tellurian]

2. Well thats what I'm saying..

How many losses can Obama sustain before it's an impossibility to garner the nomination?

[Fresh_Start]

6. he's not "LOSING", he's being edged out

that keeps him viable

A huge loss will destroy him but not these niggling ones

[neutron]

39. He'll say he Won, and she Cheated

Just like he did after NH and NV.

[MADem]

12. It's not states, it's delegates. These initial engagements are just beauty contests.

Look at the total delegate count earned by all candidates so far. It's chickenshit.

The magic number is two thousand and twenty five. The first person within easy striking distance of that figure owns the nom.

[Lucinda]

3. No one is leaving before Supah Dupah Tuesday

Hillary would have great MO though, with a win in SC.

[mtnsnake]

4. I think they're all in the game until Super Tuesday

There's plenty of time for one of them to make a big move or for someone to slip up.

[Tellurian]

17. OK..

Here is some info about Super Tuesday 08'

2008

Main article: Super Tuesday (2008)

"In the Spring of 2008, 24 states with over half the delegates to the national conventions moved to change their primary dates to February 5, 2008, creating the largest "Super Tuesday" to date. Newswriters and political pundits have noted that this will dwarf the Super Tuesday primaries in previous cycles, creating a "Tsunami Tuesday," among other superlatives. <3> With only four states holding elections on this year's other Super Tuesday of March 4, 2008, pundits in those states left behind have noted that "this year, however, Super Tuesday isn't so super."<4>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday#2008

[MadBadger]

5. You mean 3-1?

[Tellurian]

9. No,I counted SC as a hypothetical loss for Obama.. no Jinx intended

Then Edwards will stay on as well until after ST.

[MadBadger]

14. You counted Michigan

You knew what I was referring to.

[Tellurian]

18. Michigan..

Logic dictates the DNC will release the delegates at the last minute.. as they should do the same in FL.

[MadBadger]

20. As of now, they have no delegates, and should not be counted.

Especially Michigan where it was just Clinton, DK, and Gravel.

[VolcanoJen]

7. Since Democratic Primaries and Caucuses are not "winner-take-all"...

... that's kind of a moot question. It would only be 4-1 if it were, as you say, a game.

"Momentum" is an invention, an adjective of politicos and commentators.

[MADem]

8. He and Clinton are in this until Super Tuesday and possibly beyond.

If either one loses by a small margin, or if EDWARDS takes the prize and wipes the floor with the other two, it's all three going on to SUPER TUESDAY.

Super Tuesday is a key point on the journey. Not the only point, but that's a BIG delegate grab on that one day.

[Politicub]

10. Even more mud slinging on GMA? n/t

[bigdarryl]

33. that wasn't mud slinging g that was a statement he was making about big dog distorting his record ..

and making unsubstantiated statements about Las Vegas intimidation

[jefferson_dem]

11. What will Hillary do if she doesn't earn more delegates than Obama for the fourth time in a row?

So far, Obama has won as many or more delegates than Hillary IA and NV and tied her for delegates in NH. What happens to the Hillary campaign if she loses yet again in SC?

[Cha]

15. she and her echoers will

keep on trying anything to see what sticks..like the op.

[MADem]

22. SC??????

So far, Obama has won as many or more delegates than Hillary IA and SC ....

Got a crystal ball in your pocket, there, pal?

No, he hasn't. The Democratic nominee will get 25 delegates from Nevada. The loser of the nomination will get ZERO.

But nice spin...!

[jefferson_dem]

27. Dude. Chill.

It was a typo. Edited it to read "NV" now.

Obama was awarded a majority - 13 - of Nevada's delegates.

You are right, however. The Democratic nominee will be the Democratic nominee... :eyes:

[MADem]

29. I'm totally "chilled." But you don't write in the clearest fashion. At all.

It's sometimes hard to know what you mean.

No matter how often you repeat it, Obama hasn't been 'awarded' ANY delegates yet.

That doesn't happen until the party meets in a couple of months.

And if he is closing on two thousand twenty five delegates, he will be "awarded" TWENTY FIVE. If someone else is, he'll be "awarded" ZERO.

Only if there's no clear nominee by the time the NV party meets will he be "awarded" some number of delegates. And it MAY NOT BE thirteen.

You stay tuned, we'll see.

[jefferson_dem]

35. Point taken.

:hi:

Go Pats!

[MADem]

41. They're up, fourteen to nine.

They're having an incredible year...!

I still am amazed at how well they've done in recent years...!

[Cadwallader]

40. This should be it's own thread

since the syle here at DU seems to be tweaking the oppo & not making any significant statements about their own candidate's positions.

[THUNDER HANDS]

13. it's over if he loses S.C.

it's a must-win.

[MADem]

23. I honestly don't think so.

I think he'll soldier on through SUPER TUESDAY, particularly if the winner turns out to be EDWARDS.

[THUNDER HANDS]

26. i meant practically over

he'll still campaign, but he won't win.

[MADem]

32. That might well be true.

He can't keep getting petulant about second place finishes, and not expect people to not start noticing, that's for sure.

But SUPER TUESDAY is a fine mix of states--ANYTHING could happen. Look at this rich landscape of contests:



Currently 24 states are scheduled to hold caucuses or primary elections on Super Tuesday, 2008. Blue denotes Democratic-only caucuses (3), Red denotes Republican-only state conventions (2), and Purple represents states holding elections for both parties (19).

[cali]

16. what happens if hillary loses SC

what are the possibilities that she loses momentum heading into Super Tuesday? What happens if she gets virtually none of the African American vote? Huh? Huh?

[Tellurian]

21. I don't think she is expecting to win SC.. but then again she's full of surprises..

and by golly, she DELIVERS!

[MADem]

38. That's a valid question, too. If she gets ZERO support from the African American voters,

that could change the dynamic of the race entirely. I don't see that happening, though. She's not going to get ALL of it, she may not get MOST of it, but she'll get some, from supporters who like her on the issues.

People, no matter which candidate they support, who assume the AA vote is a monolith. make a massive mistake. AA voters tend to be both more engaged and better informed than many voter subsets, they'll weigh the candidates and the issues and choose accordingly. They do hold the "decider" card to no small extent in SC, certainly.

[OzarkDem]

19. He should pull out of the campaign

and throw his support to Edwards. Hey, you asked. :shrug:

[Tellurian]

24. Now, theres a thought!

Think his ego will bend to Edwards? I don't.

[Iceburg]

25. A) I don't think he will lose B) He should stay in until the convention

as should Edwards and Hillary.

[madrchsod]

28. he quits and succumbs to a fate that awaits us all

[FrenchieCat]

30. then your King and Queen gets their crowns?

[Kucinich4America]

31. If Obama loses SC, it will be to Edwards

Hillary doesn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning there. At least not honestly.

[Unsane]

34. Obama is winning SC

The question is: how does a SC win help Obama going into Super Tuesday?

[BenDavid]

36. HRC is in big mo across the country still, and even if the polls

show a closer race that was expected but even if HRC loses sc it will be seen as "and I hate to even say this".:cry: " a black and white election. Then it is on to 2/5 and even though there is florida HRC will win that too, and after 2/5 it will be clear that HRC will have more delegates and will I hope clinch this by March 11th.......

[Cadwallader]

42. I've been lurking here for several months

and one thing I've noticed is your record on prognostication , which should be encouraging for anyone who is not a HRC fan.

[Cadwallader]

37. It's the money

He's got more than Hillary, and this will kjeep him in it. It's looking more and more like no one is backing down before the convention, despite the Clinton organization's desire for tha status quo way of doing things.

This ain't the 90's, no one is going to be driven by the media this time around