Obama faces uphill battle to survive Super Tuesday

[sunonmars]

Ouch, you decide.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article3356193.ece

Mr Obama now faces the steepest of political hills if he is to survive Super Tuesday on 5 February. For now, he remains well ahead in South Carolina, where Democrats vote next Saturday. But his support is weak among white voters there, as it is in the South generally. The shifting momentum of the primaries battle risks losing him a lot of African Americans as well as they retain a residual affection for all things Clinton.

Many rank-and-file voters who attended the caucuses appeared to agree – seeing in Hillary Clinton a woman with the toughness and the determination to face down the Republican attack machine and strong-arm Congress into enacting a presidential agenda.

Whether or not they like her realpolitik approach – the reason many Democrats distrust or dislike her – has become only a secondary consideration.

Mr Obama demonstrated a marked lack of toughness on the campaign trail in Nevada, never more so than during last Tuesday's televised debate, when he gave an honest answer to the question of what his greatest weakness was. He was, he said, terrible with paperwork, and then looked hurt when the others held his answer against him.

Nobody doubts he is a sincere guy, but that may no longer be a plus point, especially since his campaign pitch appears so long on inspiring rhetoric and so short on substance.

"By promising 'new politics'," The Boston Globe wrote yesterday, " Obama has staked a claim on the passions of Democratic voters. But there are signs his cry for change may be sounding hollow or, worse, like a typical political slogan."


http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/20/obama_needs_to_add_more_substance_to_his_call_for_change/

But there had been signs even then that his stump speech - a stirring call to change, with direct allusions to the historic nature of his candidacy - had struck some voters as a little presumptuous. And Clinton was seizing every opportunity to portray his message as shallow.

Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire, pointed to two worrisome signs for Obama in yesterday's Nevada result: The loss of a state with a large Hispanic population, suggesting that he does not connect as well as Clinton with that growing voting bloc, and a problem attracting the support of working-class voters.

"Despite all the talk of her having had eight campaign slogans, Clinton managed to connect with working-class Democrats," Scala said. "Obama did not, with all the appeals to hope and change. That's part of Obama's problem; he appeals to voters who have the luxury of thinking about reforming the nation's politics. For working-class voters, it's more about healthcare."

But there are signs that his cry for change may be sounding hollow or, worse, like a typical political slogan.

[cali]

1. It's always been an uphill battle for him

He's going up against a political machine at least as powerful and ruthless as the bush machine. When you challenge something like that, the odds are decidedly against you. It's absolutely amazing that he's posed a credible challenge to the Clinton machine. And it's a damned good thing that the repukes are so weak this year. She has a chance in this cycle due to things breaking her way(the economy, for example), the weak repuke field and having a formidable machine behind her. I never thought we'd get rid of the Clintons that easily. They're over weaning ambitition and willingness to do and say anything to get themselves elected again, was always clear.

[Egnever]

2. interesting take

He definitely faces a challenge in the primaries. I think they are making assumptions based on Nevada that wont hold across other states though. Nevada was a strong state for Hillary from the get go. She was up by as much as 40 points in some polls only a couple of months ago. He may not have carried the state but he took damn near everything but las Vegas.

Las Vegas has a ton of senior citizens in it and they tend to break for Hillary. This demographic wont be repeated across the rest of the country. Super tuesday has a lot of southern states in it and if SC goes his way I suspect AL and GA will as well. Illinois is also super tues and I will be surprised if he doesn't carry that state easily.

I don't think if Obama carries SC we will have a winner on super tues either. This one may end up going down to the wire.

[Rydz777]

3. "For working class voters it's more about healthcare." Yes, but

it is even more about keeping their jobs. We are probably already in a recession and may be heading for a real depression unlike anything we've experienced since the 1930's. If the next President - who will be a Democrat - can't deal with that, he/she will leave office after four years looking like Herbert Hoover. The Repubs will be history but they'll be replaced by something worse.

I vote on Super Tuesday. At the moment I'm leaning to Edwards but I may switch to Hillary. I'm open to Obama but he needs to get specific.

[sandnsea]

6. Specific how?

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/fiscal/

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/poverty/

[cloudythescribbler]

4. I have been saying for months now how the front-loading of the primaries on Feb 5 ...

predictably and vastly favored whoever was the presumptive nominee going INTO the campaign (ie Hillary Clinton) over any challenger, no matter how realistically good they are at drawing support essentially from scratch (ie Obama).

This structure is an all-but impregnable fortress for nominating Hillary Clinton. This fact has not been seriously addressed, to my knowledge in ANY major column or by any pundit's writings anywhere. Anyone who has seen this particular interpretation (or spin) anywhere, please provide a link.

[sandnsea]

5. Obama won rural NV

Many of the Super Tuesday states are just like rural NV. California Indepenents can't vote in the Republican race. He has good support in Mass. Illinois is his. Obama is likely to do just as well on Super Tuesday as Hillary.