Can Dems win in 08 without the South? Matt Bai says NO.

[CTyankee]

His piece, "South Poll", was run yesterday in the NY Times Sunday Magazine http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/magazine/20wwln-lede-t.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

He says that winning the election without the South is possible "only in the same way that it's possible to shoot 10 straight free throws with your eyes closed."

Bai has been covering Democratic politics for some time now. He has a new book called "The Argument: Billionaires, Bloggers, and the Battle to Remake Democratic Politics" which I just finished and will "review" for DU in an upcoming post. He's obviously done a LOT of research into the state of the Democratic Party.

What do you think about "South Poll"? I think he makes a fair argument.

[DJ13]

1. Sounds right

I hope our party takes this into consideration before we nominate a candidate because Hillary is radioactive to the Southern male voters, and her attempts to hurt Obama have alienated a large portion of the Black votes we otherwise would be counting on.

[BenDavid]

2. I disagree.....There is two states in the south that are in play

and those are Arkansas and Florida....Now if we can remember, if HRC takes all the states that kerry won in 2004 and basically those same states that gore won in 2000 and adds Florida, well there you have the election....

Now say there is no florida again where will there be possible states. Okay...lets look at Ohio, will be in play more this tiem because of the damn bad economy and this gives HRC a push....There again is West Virginia that will be in play....Now, Nevada is in play and of course New Mexico that Kerry lost(gore won) will come into play based upon the stron showing by hispanic voters for HRC.

Maybe I can revise this later but off the top of my head this is why I disagree with south poll

[CTyankee]

3. I think Bai is saying that that's a lot of "ifs".

He argues that writing off the South has not worked for us, thereby validating what Howard Dean has been saying. There is a lot more on this in his book. He says that the Republicans started their "revolution" after their crushing defeat in 1964 by doing lots of organizing in every state.

I'd like to agree heartily that Ohio is different now than in 04 because of the economic situation, but I would hate to find myself (and my fellow liberals here at DU) on the day after the election, once again fuming that people "voted against their own economic interests."

[PaDem]

10. Virginia should be in play..........

as well.

[OHdem10]

4. Did you read the article at HuffPost regarding Obama faces

Resistence in the South?? It is not Clinton who has Southern Problems.

[CTyankee]

6. No, can you post a link? I think tho that we all acknowledge the problems

with us going into the South. That's not the issue. The issue is should we spend time and resources there. Howard Dean got a lot of flack for proposing to do that, altho his choice of words about the Southerner with his gun and the Confederate flag on his truck was unfortunate. He could better have talked about say, the women who work in low paying jobs, grinding out a living and trying to raise kids in terrible poverty situations, to give one example. Do we as a Party just leave her and her kids there to suffer their fate or do we compete for her vote?

[BootinUp]

5. Based on the info you have extracted

I would agree, I mean we have yet to see this contradicted.

[Tulkas]

7. yes, it has been done before

Need Ohio to switch to Dems,
Or the Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada block


Western strategy is gone if McCain is the opponent


Ohio Ohio Ohio, just like '04

[Frances]

9. Virginia will be in play too

[Hawaii Hiker]

8. I think they can win without the south....But we need to do well

in the interior west areas say New Mexico, Colorado (anybody have any dynamics on Colorado does that state have the strong potential to turn blue?)....I also think Iowa is in play (almost a lock for Democrats if its Obama, as he'll coast with the independent vote there)....Of course, there is also the dreaded Ohio, which will likely be very close again, regardless if its Obama or Clinton....I think Florida will be close to, but one thing that suprised me from 2004 was that Kerry only won Miami/Dade with like a 54-46& margin..I would think that could be area where Democrat gets like 65%+ of the vote, no?....