Maryland is a reliable blue state. Why isn't Virginia?

[fujiyama]

What are the main differences between VA and Maryland? Are they demographic? The reason I compare the two is because they both are right next to DC which is also reliably democratic. I know northern VA is pretty democratic, with a lot of professionals. So how's the rest of VA? Lot of fundies?

[kiahzero]

1. MAJOR demographic differences

No. VA might be similar to Maryland demographically, but Southern VA is just... scary. Don't forget, Lynchburg is the home of Liberty University.

[Atlant]

2. God, Guns, and Gays. (NT)

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

3. The Maxon Dixon line now runs through DC between MD and VA

instead of between MD and PA.

[mobuto]

6. Go to Alexandria and tell me that

The South starts at the Springfield Interchange.

[minkyboodle]

17. Its probably closer

to the Occoquan reservoir on 95.
Scott

[trogdor]

4. Too many brain-dead rednecks.

I drove through there on I-81 a couple of years ago. This is the pickup truck capital of the world. These are the voters Howard Dean tried to tell us about. One guy had a wooden cap on his pickup plastered with anti-abortion propaganda - the kind you see at demonstrations. My guess is, he doesn't drive that vehicle to work - or he doesn't really have a job.

[Redneck Socialist]

13. Hey, my pickup truck and I resemble that remark

Though I think my bumper stickers are a little different.:)

To answer the question: Guns, guns guns. Virginia is a pretty rural state and socially conservative.

[mobuto]

5. It depends

Norfolk is heavily Democratic, Richmond is heavily Democratic. Southwest Virginia can go Democratic - its very poor and very white - but its socially conservative. As long as abortion and gun control aren't the biggest issues you're associated with, Democrats should win Roanoke and environs with ease.

The largest hardcore fundie area is Southside - the biggest city in which is Lynchburg, hope of the Rev. Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. The Richmond suburbs are very conservative, and there are a lot too in the outer DC suburbs - Loudon County, Prince William County, parts of Fairfax, etc. The inner DC suburbs of course are extremely Democratic.

Virginia is definitely more conservative than Maryland, but you're right in that the growth of the DC suburbs has meant the influx of a lot of liberals. But the Commonwealth has enormous discrepancies and there are very different political trends going on in different parts.

Is Virginia winnable? Very possibly. If Mark Warner were on the ticket, the odds would obviously increase. But Warner, whom I've worked for, is too similar to Kerry in too many ways for him to be an effective running mate. He comes across as being aloof and uncharismatic and he has several hundred million bucks in the bank, just for starters.

[Thrill]

7. It has a chance to

turn for the first time in a while. They have been hit hard by jobs. And are known to not like the Bush tax cuts. Lets not forget VA also elected a Democratic governor in 1990 a black one at that. And the Governor right now was elected Governor at the same time the state voted for Bush.

[mobuto]

9. Not at the same time

The current Governor was elected six weeks after September 11, when George Dubya had a 90%+ approval rating. And still a Democrat won. I agree - a smart campaign that could appeal both to rural whites (on jobs and development) and African Americans could win Virginia. But if Virginia were won, we'd also win West Virginia, Tennessee and Arkansas, for sure.

[spooky3]

11. Also: VA Beach (near Norfolk) is Repub, and fundy Regents U. is nearby.

(remember Pat Robertson?).

I think it's largely an urban-suburban-rural thing as it is elsewhere. Maryland has far less rural space and consequently less rural (and RW) population than does Virginia.

One other factor is that Prince George's County in MD is one of the highest income predominantly black counties in the US. Many prosperous blacks move there if they want suburban DC.

[mobuto]

15. Except large parts of rural Virginia vote Democratic

look at the Southwest and the panhandle - they may be more socially conservative than urban areas, but they went heavily for Warner in 2001. They're New Deal Dems who only vote Republican when they feel alienated by what they consider to be an overemphasis of social issues. They're exactly the people Bush is targeting with the gay marriage brouhaha.

One other factor is that Prince George's County in MD is one of the highest income predominantly black counties in the US.

Not one of the highest. PG County is the highest. By far.

[OnBackground]

8. MD and VA

MD politics has a large liberal suburban population in Montgomery and Prince George's Counties (outside of DC) like VA does in NoVA, but also has a huge African American and fairly liberal block around Baltimore. Add that to a more conservative, but still generally Democratic population in much of Ann Arundel and even southern MD, and you see why the MD House delegation is 6D-2R with 2 D Senators, while VA is 8R to 3D with 2 R Senators. I'm going to writeup a quick primary outlook for MD on the American Street, http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/ in a little while, if you are interested.

[liberalitch]

10. "cuz dumplin'

we got pat robertson, the rock church and an ex-gov who cut the car tax so that I don't have enough history books for everyone..... but my repug neighbor's SUV sure looks nice!

[spooky3]

12. it's a good question that can also be asked about IL and IN.

[KaraokeKarlton]

14. It's guns, mostly

Many people who work in and around the DC and Baltimore area live in Maryland. Virginia is larger and although there are a few blue areas in the north, there are many gun owners throughout the state. Just about all gun states are red. Vermont is only blue because the Democrats here respect that the population is very, very big on hunting.

[On the Road]

16. Look at the Major Population Centers in MD and VA

In Maryland:

Baltimore: a blue-collar city with a large black population.

Montgomery County (Bethesda, Chevy Chase, Silver Spring, Rockville etc): White-collar upper-middle class. Lots of government workers, scientists, etc.

Prince Georges County: African-American majority suburb of DC with a few farmers thrown in.


In Virginia:

Northern Virginia: white-collar mixed Rep/Dem

Richmond: tobacco city

Norfolk/Va Beach: Navy, shipping, Pat Robertson

And more farmers than MD in between