ZOGBY IS OUT: HILLARY ONLY 7 BEHIND OBAMA ON THURSDAY

[Herman Munster]

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2428418520080125?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

"Obama still leads, but the lead keeps going down," pollster John Zogby said.

In the last day of polling on Thursday, Obama's advantage over Clinton, a New York senator who would be the first woman U.S. president, was only 7 percentage points.

[DS1]

1. Obama with 13-point lead in South Carolina: poll

from your article

[Herman Munster]

2. yeah but on Thursday's poll

his lead was only 7, zogby does a 3 day rolling poll.

[DS1]

4. it doesn't say that at all

[Herman Munster]

6. do you know how to read?

Read the article. Start on Page 1.

[jackson_dem]

7. It does

[robbedvoter]

19. Your graph actually confirms it. Directions of lines = trends. getting closer.

Open race. 3 way.

[neutron]

5. Edwards needs to get his tail out

I imagine the DNC will persuade him to remove himself after SC.

[chimpymustgo]

14. Pardon me. Reuters: "Edwards is in a battle for second place." Going nowhere but UP!!!

EDWARDS CLIMBS AGAIN

Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who won South Carolina during his failed 2004 presidential bid, has climbed steadily each day of the poll. He started at 15 percent and is now at 21 percent.

Edwards held a slight lead over Clinton among likely white voters at 36 percent to 33 percent. Obama had 18 percent.

"Edwards is in a battle for second place," Zogby said. "He's getting the lion's share of the undecideds."

The number of likely Democratic voters who said they were uncertain of their choice dropped two points to 11 percent, a still sizable figure one day before the voting.

South Carolina is the next test in the back-and-forth battle for the Democratic nomination. Obama won the first contest in Iowa but Clinton won the next two in New Hampshire and Nevada.

Obama has offered pointed criticism of not only Clinton but also her husband, former President Bill Clinton, who has criticized Obama and called the idea of his consistent opposition to the Iraq war "a fairy tale."

But the attacks have not dimmed admiration for Bill Clinton among the party faithful, with 75 percent saying they had a favorable view of him and only 20 percent holding an unfavorable view.

The rolling poll of 811 likely Democratic voters in South Carolina was taken Tuesday through Thursday. In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in order to track changing momentum. Continued...

-snip-

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2428418520080125?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

[joshcryer]

3. But his lead keeps dropping.

[Lucinda]

8. EXCELLENT NEWS!

:) K&R

[MadBadger]

9. You're a Fuckin Hypocrite Herman!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4189129

So when Edwards touts passing Clinton in one day, you discredit it. But here, its okay. You're such a hypocrite.

[book_worm]

10. That's okay even if Obama won by 7 or 8 points it's still a nice victory

considering that he won over Hillary by what? about ten in Iowa. Hillary won by only 2 or 3 points in NH and 5 or 6 in Nevada. So if Obama wins by 7 or 8 he still will have gotten more overall votes than Hillary in the contested primaries this far (and delegates) plus he has never come in third in any of the races (unlike Clinton who may end up third behind Edwards). But my guess is that when all is said and done on Saturday (and we'll know in less than 48 hours) Obama will win by ten or more points--it will be a nice victory.

[robbedvoter]

22. It was the upset that made news in NH (and Iowa). Obama had high expectations

I bookmarked your gloating - as promised: 18 points lead:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4167032
anything less - will not give him much MO for Super Tuesday.

[Maribelle]

24. There are factors in SC that were not so prominent in the other three states ....

and Obama, playing fast and loose with the truth, is clearly causing fractures which will reverberate in other states.

[karynnj]

28. Actually since Iowa,

the Clintons have played fast and loose with the truth. They have hit Obama with a barrage of attacks, knowing that an attack is easy to start and defense both makes you look defensive and takes more effort. From the NYT today, the campaign intends to keep BC as an attack dog. That he is attacking doesn't bother me, it does bother me that he is attacking with lies. Wolfson had said in 2005 that they learned that swiftboating works. I had a problem with Republicans who could ignore it - I don't think I can and I hate the thought that our general election candidate may engage in it. If she does, I can't, in good conscience vote for her.

Here is a short list of Rovian actions:
1) The choice mailer in NH - it distorted his views and was put out as a flier over the names of credible people, some of whom now feel used.
2) The Obama was inconsistent on Iraq rant - contained several charges. Obama needs to address the one that he said he was close to Bush in 2004. What Obama said was that, like Bush, the Democrats were committed to leaving a stable Iraq, but he then went on - as Kerry did - to speak of the need use diplomacy and internationalizing the effort. You can find similar comments from people like Dean and Clark. He also made many criticisms of how Bush was fighting the war - just like Kerry, Dean, and Clark. The Republicans, with their media allies, made the same Kerry is saying the same thing as Bush. It was a lie then about Kerry, it's a lie now about Obama.
3) The Clinton via allies did try to suppress voters in NY via that suit. That is fact. Bill's comments on the weights were wrong and the suit did not attack the weights, but the actual voting sites.
4) When it became an issue, they created the CU is intimidating people story. though I'm sure there were isolated instances where some low level union people overstepped, it is clear that there was no systemic coercion, given that HRC got more than half of them. The Matt Stoller post commented that a HRC union did a "better" job organizing the CU people, than its own union. Likely because the CU was intimidated by the Clinton charges. (Stoller twists things saying that it was because they intimidated people that people did not vote for Obama - it's been years since I took Labor economics but that is NOT the normal response to intimidation for a public vote.)
5)The distortion of the Patriot vote was pure Rove, especially as it matched HRC's.

What I don't get is that with all the party support and the media support HRC had - and she was the inevitable candidate, that as soon as anything hasn't gone their way, their first reaction is to lash out with no respect for truth. They have, in fact, damaged themselves and Obama with this. Is this a first couple we can be proud of?

[Thrill]

11. ONLY? LOL

[Clintonista2]

21. Umm considering she was down more than 20% on monday

Yes, *only*

[niceypoo]

12. I think the electorate sees Obama as a whiner

The endless whining and crybabying about every little bit of criticism from Obamas camp and Obamas supporters fortell what a future with Obama would bring.

[sunonmars]

13. the interesting thing about that poll is................

the attacks on Bill Clinton are not working, the public still love him.

All this bull shit about BC tearing up the party is complete horseshit.

[MoonRiver]

16. Anybody who's been an adult for the last 16 years,

knows that piling on the Clintons ALWAYS backfires. Our rw media just can't help itself, however. Obama is a political babe in the woods, so that explains his behavior.

Last night the Rethugs clearly knew one of them will be running against Hillary Clinton. No other Democrat's name was mentioned in regard to who they would be facing in the general.

[Tellurian]

18. Yes,they are using the Gore strategy to distance Bill from Hillary!

TG, Bill isn't intimidated by RW tactics and will carry on doing exactly what he's doing for our next president!



Love this pic.

Thanks to Lerwin for posting it again. I lost my copy in a browser update.

[Maribelle]

20. As the poll shows, Obama's attack against Clinton has lost him some of the black votes...

and a huge percentage of the white votes.

It appears Obama is the one that could be splitting democrats in South Carolina. The voters, who had solidly supported him, might be more perceptive than Obama gives them credit for being.

[robbedvoter]

25. oopsie! nd it was a strategy so well planned! Look at it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4185840

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Only About Two Hundred People Are Polled On One Day

The MOE must be ten percent or more...

[robbedvoter]

17. Like I said, anything can happen!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4180669&mesg_id=4193597

[sunonmars]

26. as i said, if Obama does not win this convincingly on a number of factors in SC

He may as well go back home to Chicago and write his withdrawal speech because the MSM will crucify him on Sunday.

The odds aare stacked against him.


If its a small win, he loses,

if its a tie, he's finished

if he loses to either Edwards or Clinton , its a knockout plain and simple.

[jefferson_dem]

23. Not surprising. She is the front-runner and should be expected to win.

I only hope Obama can keep it close.

[cobalt1999]

27. I'll be happy if she can just keep it close.

If the news headlines on Sunday is "Obama wins with 70% of the black vote" and "Hillary does better than expected", then I like her chances on Super Tuesday to take a commanding lead.