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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:10 AM
Original message
DUers have a short term memory problem
The polls are being posted fast and furious here, and trumpeted as if they were gospel.

You'd think we'd have learned our lesson, but nooo.

Here's the truth: We can't rely on the polls being accurate, and anyone could win South Carolina.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
1. for once i agree with you

They are kinda like all over the joint.

There seems to be a new poll like every hour on it and all of them grasping at straws in SC.

I'm just gonna wait until the results now. I have no idea anymore.
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. Statistical analysis has always sucked on DU
DUers too often claim one poll is superior to another based on which numbers they prefer, and they attach motivations to those numbers based on wishful thinking. It's lame, but it's not going anywhere.
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Uben Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. No matter who wins SC
....it will not provide any real changes to what is going to happen Feb, 5th. Even super Tuesday will not bring us a concrete winner, so let's let this thing play out. Let the best man or woman win, and then get them elected!
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
4. After New Hampshire, I think we're all holding our fire.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
5. Yes, it's wide open nt
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Ninga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:26 AM
Response to Original message
6. What polls do show is movement. And points gained or lost drives perception
it is getting harder to determine winners too far out



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Essene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:30 AM
Response to Original message
7. "anyone can win?" No, either obama or edwards can win. Hillary's done permanent damage
Edited on Fri Jan-25-08 07:30 AM by Essene
Let's be clear... even among blacks in NYC... her base... she's losing now.

Folks are outraged.

Obviously you wont see a lot of blacks speaking out because the Clintons and media are already insisting it's all just playing the race card. They will silently tell the truth at the voting booth. The only issue now is whether the media and clintons will get away with making SC into a "black thing" and thus causing a huge anti-obama backlash among whites going into Feb5th.

If that happens... there will be very low voter turn-out among blacks in the rest of the states.

And if they come back to the polls in Nov... it wont be for Clinton.

This story is way bigger than the DU hillary zealots and media realize. I think the Edwards supporters understand this, because... well... they are honest and sincere people.
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MethuenProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. I agree, Obama's Swiftboating of Clinton on Race has worked for him.
Shame, Barack. Shame.
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NavyDavy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. how very republicon of Obama!
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MethuenProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-25-08 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
8. The NH polls were pretty accurate.
They all said Obama would get mid-30s. He got 36%.
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