How much does Obama have to win by tomorrow?

[Ravy]

The expectations are so high.

I wonder what percentage of victory it will take for the pundits to sit up and take notice.

Obviously, to Obama supporters and his talking heads, one vote is plenty... but if he wins close, the story will be on the great Clinton or Edwards comeback, or worse yet, inject more race into the subject by saying that when people got in the voting booth, they decided they couldn't vote for a black man.

If he loses, I think it will be catastrophic for his campaign. Not that he would, or should get out if that happens, but going into Super Tuesday when you lost three straight contests you were expected to win would be devastating.

My guess is that anything in the 5-10 percent range of victory will be played as Obama was expected to win in the state where demographics favored his candidacy, and toward the upper end or with a margin of victory greater than 10, he will start looking (to everyone) like he can hold his own everywhere he goes.

Good luck to all the campaigns tomorrow. I will be rooting for Edwards, but really praying for any totals that won't result in more speculation and controversy as to any of our candidate's ability to win the nomination, general election, and being able to turn this country around when elected in November.

[KennedyGuy]

1. According to the Obaamnauts the past few days..anything but a 20 pt win is a loss

a devestating loss..

[jlake]

2. Anything less than 10% will mean poor coverage for O. If he loses, he is out of the race.

[Colobo]

3. He just has to win.

It's a horserace. A win is a win.

[NYCGirl]

4. Even one point is still a win. NT

[Joe the Revelator]

5. He just needs to win the most delegates...

thats all that counts.

[Occam Bandage]

6. 5.

[Colobo]

7. That's reasonable.

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. 10 points

to call it a landslide.

5 points and it becomes close.


anything less than five and Clinton can almost claim victory herself.

[robbedvoter]

9. 18 points. as celebrated here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4167032

[Radical Activist]

10. The most significant thing would be Hillary finishing third.

Losing SC would hurt Obama but it looks like he'll win. Another third place finish would hurt Clinton badly.

[Ravy]

13. I hadn't put much thought into that, but yes, that would make

a heck of a difference in this race, and get most of the coverage.

[robbedvoter]

15. Then she'd have 3 primaries vs the others one each. Then 4 on Tuesday.

it wouldn't be such a blow to her - but the end for Obama.

[Ravy]

16. Yes, if Edwards won, but if Obama wins by a "good" margin,

and Edwards beats Clinton, things would get REAL interesting.

[Radical Activist]

18. Except that Hillary was supposed to win them all

Finishing a few points ahead when you were up 20% a month earlier is not a victory.

[cali]

36. And if Obama wins, they each have two wins.

And if Obama wins and she comes in third, she's OK, but it does once more put a dent in her inevitable narrative.

[IndianaJones]

11. 8 pts. I am predicting 12. nt.

[moobu2]

12. 12 points

[smalll]

14. By 10 points - at LEAST! /nt

[Colobo]

19. No. By 25% AT LEAST!

[Occam Bandage]

22. IF ANYONE VOTES FOR HILLARY OBAMA MUST COMMIT RITUAL SUICIDE

[joshcryer]

27. Muslim style?

:evilgrin:

[Occam Bandage]

30. Self-beheading with a scimitar, preferably on YouTube.

You know the way that terrorists like Barack Hussein Obama bin Laden roll.

[Diane R]

17. He just has to win. On the other hand, if Hillary is third it's curtains for her.

[MADem]

23. He has to win comfortably. If Clinton is third, she'll go on to 5 February.

Curtains? Unlikely. Highly so.

[onyxred]

20. Double digits, IMO

I agree with those who say double digits.

[southern_dem]

21. More delegates

than Clinton is a win; but I'm still rooting for John anyway. :)

[Occam Bandage]

24. You know how you could have really saved some keystrokes in the OP? Written this:

"Obama supporters: Please write a low number. Clinton supporters: Please write a high number."

[Ravy]

26. I got a few honest replies.. but in general, agreed. *grin* nt

[madrchsod]

25. one vote more than the other person

[goldcanyonaz]

28. Triple digits!!!

Good luck tomorrow.

[ruggerson]

29. I think he has to take the whole goddamned state

100% across the board.

Hillary or John get one vote and it's all over.

[MoonRiver]

31. I don't know, but I doubt it will make much difference.

Super Tuesday is the day our nominee will be decided, maybe.

[global1]

32. Obama Supporters - Don't Fall For Bush Tactics Here.......

HRC supporters are setting you up. Set her expectations low meaning a high percentage double digit win for Obama and if it turns out to be a single digit win for Obama - HRC can claim victory.

Look what we got for eight years when we had another candidate set their expectations low.

How Rovian.

In the end - what will count are delegates - not how many primaries one wins. Remember in some states Place and Show also get delegates.

Edwards is coming on strong in SC. He won the state before. He could do it again. If he does - it is a horserace and he is in the thick with Barack and Hillary. If Barack wins and Edwards runs a strong second - HRC is on the ropes.

The MSM will over-analyze this primary and we'll be seeing the percentages of blacks, women, men, youth and any other group you could slice and dice for all three candidates.

[goldcanyonaz]

34. You've got your candidates mixed up. Clinton was accused of stealing New Hampshire, and...

Nevada didn't matter because Obama won more delegates.

Oh, and that was right here on this forum.

We, Clinton supporters are way outnumbered here, and most were playing around with huge percentages.

[book_worm]

33. by 100% if anybody votes for anybody but Obama it's a devastating loss.

sarcasm.

[sunonmars]

35. Its not the win, its the detail in the win that will decide it

If he becomes the "black" candidate today, dont be surprised if the MSM stab him right through the heart.

[JI7]

37. how many points did Hllary win NH with