Delegates V. Votes - an informative and "balanced" discussion of the state of the campaign

[jefferson_dem]

Delegates V. Votes
26 Jan 2008 02:23 pm

Clinton communications impresario Howard Wolfson has written a memo that nicely summarizes the strategic argument the Clinton campaign will make over the next two weeks.

After some throat-clearing expectations setting for South Carolina, he writes: "Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday."

As John Madden would say, "Boom." That's the line that tells you exactly how Clinton will campaign between now and Feb. 5.

For there are no delegates to be awarded in Florida. Clinton won't campaign there, but she will campaign for Florida -- and in all likelihood, she will win the votes of several hundred thousand Floridians on Feb. 29.

In Florida and beyond, watch for Clinton to focus on the forest, not the trees -- the national popular vote and the superdelegates who follow the herd, and not (so much) the earned delegates.

It's safe to say that, as of Feb. 6, Hillary Clinton will have earned the votes of at least several hundred thousand more Democrats than Barack Obama. Obama, on Feb. 6, might have a slight lead in earned delegates, depending on the number of states he wins. Or, the ratio of Clinton's delegates to Obama's will be smaller than the ratio of her popular vote total to his. States can be "won" and "lost" by the same candidate -- Nevada being one example. Votes are proportionally allocated by Congressional district, which poses a strategic quandary for all the campaigns: do they focus on "winning the delegates? Or do they focus on "winning the state?"

The Clinton campaign knows this. The Obama campaign knows this, too.

The Obama campaign's theory of the case can be called the "Delegate Dominoes." Since the nomination rests on -- and only on -- a foundation of delegate selection, the national popular vote difference is meaningless -- and the press should not be overly sensitive to its effects on momentum. If the press focuses on delegates going into Feb. 5 and coming out of Feb. 5, Obama has a correspondingly higher chance of avoiding the enormous crucible that is the media's declaration of a frontrunner. Here's why a post-Feb 5 media consensus about Clinton is so dangerous to Obama: for the first time in this race, it will be based on the votes of real people, and not the conventional wisdom that we pull out of our linked-at-the-pelvis rear ends.

Notice the distinction above between earned delegates and superdelegates. The Supers tend to latch their hitch to the winning wagons because a lot's at stake if they choose the wrong candidate. Clinton currently has a Superdelegate lead, and it's safe to say that Superdelegates, generally being timid, will come aboard if the voters give them permission.

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http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/post_11.php