RASMUSSEN FLORIDA POLL: Clinton 44% Obama 25% Edwards 19%.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_democratic_primary

What if Edwards beats Obama?

[AX10]

1. She will win Florida and 2/5 also.

[jackson_dem]

2. Edwards rising up 6%. Can he beat Obama in the Sunshine state?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

10. thats' a real good question

[MadBadger]

3. qwerja;f'adnasf

[Joe the Revelator]

4. I wonder what the polls would be if the delegates counted and people actually campaigned there...

nt

[jackson_dem]

5. I wonder how well Edwards would be doing if he ran ads in Florida...

;)

[desi]

9. He'd be kickin' Obama's whiny ass.

no doubt.

[Occam Bandage]

14. Just like he's done in every other state, right? Oh, wait, he's finished behind O every time.

[1corona4u]

26. I just came from a party....

and most of the people I had talked on Thanksgiving. Back then, they were all talking about the candidates. Today, most all of them were for Hillary, even 1 republican, one for Edwards, and 2 other republicans were still hoping for Romney, and none of them were for Obama. They were adamant about that. None for McCain. They were surprised when I said I thought McCain would win the nomination. Of course they don't spend time on places like DU or freeperville, so they have no idea what is said, or talked about by their supporters either, and I don't think they watch the talking head shows, from the sounds of it.

There were a total of 29 people there, from all walks of life. I was surprised that most of them think Hillary will win the nomination though. I, on the other hand, am not so sure, with all the trash talk from the media.

We'll see.

[tandem5]

8. true, but at least everybody's name is on the ballot. nt

[Knox Harrington]

22. Hahahaha

You're bitter just because your candidate was too dumb to campaign there. You think HRC didn't know what she was doing all along? I'm sorry my friend but this is a big boy's (or girl's) game, and if it takes a little bending of the rules to win, so be it. HRC is the only candidate who sees, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is who wins!

[skipos]

6. We need the Clintons down there asap. They need to see what SC witnessed.

That should make their numbers drop pretty quickly.

[Occam Bandage]

7. Congratulations! Clinton can win states in which nobody campaigns! So long as people

don't actually have to listen to her, get to know her, or get to know her opponents, she wins!

[frogcycle]

11. well put

[tandem5]

13. I know! If only Floridians had TV, the internet, and newspapers they could know the truth!

poor bastards!

[Occam Bandage]

16. This just in: campaigning does not affect people's votes. I wonder why they bother.

[Hutzpa]

12. The only race Billary wins

are ones with themselves in it.

no race!


bawahahahaha!

:rofl: :rofl:

[CTLawGuy]

15. can you help me

what is 44% of zero....?

thanks!

[AtomicKitten]

42. I think if you carry the 4 and divide by the square root of 7.6 --

it's still zero.

[joshcryer]

17. To those dismissing FL, the delegates will be seated.

So please get out of your delusions. Thanks.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

18. indeed

[tandem5]

19. yup nt

[Joe the Revelator]

20. Oh you must have a crystal ball!!

What am I having for lunch tomorrow?


In all seriousness though, nice joke you made in your post, but those delegates aren't getting anywhere near a seat at the convention.

[joshcryer]

23. Want to put $50 on that? I've had the open bet.

No one seems to want to take it.

[1corona4u]

28. Chicken shit?

[1corona4u]

32. You lose;

This St. Pete Times article essentially confirms what Florida bloggers, specifically those at the Florida Progressive Coalition, have been arguing all along:



... House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a round-table discussion with reporters in Washington that the Democratic National Committee can try to enforce its rules, but the party's authority essentially ends when the convention begins.

"The reality is if you want to know if Florida is going to be seated, ask the Democratic nominee as soon as one emerges," Pelosi said.

Dean agreed.

"At the end of the day, the nominee will make a decision, essentially about who gets seated," Dean agreed.

No nominee for President is going to tell voters in Florida that they're not going to seat their delegates at the convention.


Dean stressed that he doesn't think the spat will cost votes in November, stressing that Florida Democrats will focus on national issues.

I have one small quibble with Chairman Dean on that point. Other than President and a few Congressional seats, there isn't much up-ticket on the November ballot in Florida. If Florida Democrats are smart, they'll be focused building up the party's bench by getting more Democrats elected to the state legislature and at the local level. Need I remind Dean that his 50 State Strategy is about winning elections at every level in every state across the country.

Now, regarding the Primary, the message to Florida Democrats is clear: VOTE ON JANUARY 29 - IT WILL COUNT.

http://floridanetroots.blogspot.com/2007/10/floridas-democratic-delegates-will-be.html

[joshcryer]

34. I wish you didn't post this. Now no one will take my $50 bet. :(

[tandem5]

37. heh... don't worry there's always another thread. nt

[1corona4u]

39. They weren't going to take it anyway...

besides, they'll just come back now and say it won't matter....

[Joe the Revelator]

40. I don't understand your argument.

The only way that Florida matters is if Obama is leading Hillary going into the convention. He will be the presumptive nominee, and not seat the florida delegation.

[Occam Bandage]

45. And you think Obama will overrule the DNC to hand the nomination to Hillary?

:rofl:

[Occam Bandage]

24. You're in deep denial. The party isn't Clinton's plaything.

[joshcryer]

25. Millions of voters won't be disenfranchised.

Has nothing to do with being "Clinton's plaything."

[Occam Bandage]

29. They already were by their own state parties. While the delegates might be seated, the only

scenario in which that'll happen is if they wouldn't be the margin of victory for either candidate. The party is not going to buckle at this stage.

[1corona4u]

33. See my post above.

[Joe the Revelator]

43. Your post above would have to assume that Obama goes into the convention ahead

in which case, they aren't going to seat the delegates, if doing so will cause the nomination to go to Hillary. Get it?

[1corona4u]

46. We'll see.

[joshcryer]

If that happens expect a division of epic proportions within the party.

[joshcryer]

36. The only way they'd be in the margin of victory would be for Hillary.

And this is this scenario I've really hated. Basically, if their votes actually matter and have an effect on how things play out, then there will be a huge controversey.

[mckeown1128]

95. This is not an election for a government job...

This is a party election. It isn't being disenfranchised when the voters don't play by the party rules. If they want a say in the Democratic Party nomination process then they have to vote by the rules of the Democratic Party nomination process.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

27. Voters aren't Obama's or the DNC plaything

[Occam Bandage]

30. Obama has nothing to do with this. Their state parties chose this.

[joshcryer]

38. Obama would fight it if it was within the margin of victory.

And you know it. He'd basically become Bush 2000.

[Occam Bandage]

41. As he should. Candidates shouldn't fuck with voting procedures for personal gain.

[joshcryer]

48. Obama disenfranshising millions of voters isn't fucking with the vote for personal gain?

What a joke.

[Occam Bandage]

52. Obama isn't disenfranchising anyone. That would be the doing of their state parties.

[joshcryer]

54. He could chose to accept their votes or not, by not doing so is disenfranchising them.

[Occam Bandage]

55. Since when is this Obama's deal? This is a matter between the DNC and the states.

[niceypoo]

56. Right! Left Hook! Right! BODY BLOW!!

[joshcryer]

57. This is a matter between DNC and the voters.

If he represents the disenfrachising of voters, oh well. It's like asking Bush to count all the votes. Of course he's not going to do that, likewise I wouldn't expect Obama to.

[niceypoo]

60. Left Hook! Right! Left! BODY BLOW!

[Occam Bandage]

63. That's ridiculous. The state parties agreed to move up their primaries, and were aware

that the punishment for doing so was surrender of delegates.

[joshcryer]

64. The voters had no control over that. None whatsoever.

[jefferson_dem]

67. Then hold the dunder-headed Florida Democratic Party apparatus responsible

for fucking them over.

They screwed up, had a chance to fix it, but decided to go to the mat instead.

[Occam Bandage]

72. Which also should be mentioned. Compromises were offered and rejected. The DNC's hands are clean.

[joshcryer]

73. If I was in either state I would be pissed, but I'd be more pissed at the national party...

...thinking it's just "fine and dandy" to disenfranchise millions of voters. Especially if my "presidential nominee," chose to ignore my delegates because, well, it wouldn't bode in their favor.

[Occam Bandage]

77. That isn't the national party's doing. That is the state party's doing. It certainly isn't Obama's

doing.

[joshcryer]

85. The only situation where they wouldn't be seated, is if they mattered!

And the only way they'd matter is if they'd swing the votes away from Obama to Clinton! Obviously if they're not seated it would be for Obama to take power! That's the ONLY situation that these delegates are not seated!

[Occam Bandage]

87. Or so you believe.

[joshcryer]

90. It's how the polls are looking in FL and how MI went, so...

[Occam Bandage]

68. Indeed. Their parties disenfranchised them. They should vote them out.

[joshcryer]

70. They probably will, but not in time for their votes to matter. Is that what you want?

[Occam Bandage]

75. ...

Yes. If the delegates are seated, then there will be no incentive for states not to go all out in leapfrogging next campaign. Get ready for October/November 2011 primaries. Better the rules are upheld, and the FL Democratic Party be held responsible for disenfranchising voters.

[joshcryer]

82. But as we saw, it's highly likely that'll be seated, UNLESS THEIR VOTES MATTER.

So basically, it's a fucking double standard of epic propostions. There is no real punishment, if their vote doesn't matter, but if it does, if it could change results, then they are disenfranchised. That's not democracy, that's an oligarchy.

[Occam Bandage]

86. "As we saw?" Bullshit. That's "as some guy's opinion goes."

[joshcryer]

88. No, that's straight from Dean and Pelosi's mouth.

[Occam Bandage]

91. Oh, really? Dean and Pelosi said those exact words? Like I said, just some guy's opinion

of what will happen based on D/Ps shoulder-shrugging.

[joshcryer]

93. Yes, they said that the nominee would seat the delegates.

The only way those delegates wouldn't be seated, as you and Wolsh so happily pointed out (with completey disregard to ethics) is if Obama had the most delegates, and was indeed the nominee at that point, and by giving those delegates to Hillary, he would lose the nomination. ANY OTHER SCENARIO RESULTS IN THE CANDIDATE SEATING THE DELEGATES.

[Occam Bandage]

102. Actually, plenty of scenarios don't involve the candidate seating the delegates.

For instance, a candidate winning handily, and deciding that rather than create a civil war within the party in 2012, they will abide by the decision of the DLC and not intervene to seat delegates.

[jefferson_dem]

71. Exactly.

Sounds like all these "belly-achers" want to blame everybody but who is actually responsible.

[joshcryer]

76. You are only of this opinion because in the unlikely scenario we don't have a nominee.

And the delegate count is very tight... then it *might* bode in your candidates favor.

I hope to fuck this doesn't happen, however, because it would be fucking Bush vs Gore all over again.

[Occam Bandage]

80. I'm of this opinion because I don't want the party torn apart by feuding power struggles

every four years.

[joshcryer]

84. I'm not convinced of that.

[Occam Bandage]

89. Of course you aren't.

[joshcryer]

92. Maybe because you see no problem with power being concentrated...

...to those higher up in the party. And indeed, the very idea that millions of voters would be disenfranchised in order to give power to one individual.

[jefferson_dem]

53. It's a national party convention, silly. Why does anything but what the national party wants matter?

If Hillary wins the most delegates, they can ram it through, in the finest "smoky back room" fashion, if they want.

[Tatiana]

44. Do you know something we don't?

If she does get the FL delegates seated, she will definitely walk into a general election with a cloud over her nomination as the Dem candidate.

[jefferson_dem]

49. Hear Ye, Hear Ye. joshcryer has spoken. They will be seated!

We'll see.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/27/192143/621

[Joe the Revelator]

59. That is a great article that basically says Hillary has to win it without Fl and Michigan

Good luck.

[book_worm]

21. let's see what the SC win does to those numbers

not that Obama will win he has been following the rules and not campaigning there, but I doubt Hillary will win the straw vote by that much.

[jefferson_dem]

31. Will Hillary FINALLY win more delegates in a state...

only to have them not count?

Bwhahahahahah...

[1corona4u]

35. They will count. See my post above.

[jefferson_dem]

47. They will only be seated at the convention if Hillary has won already and doesn't need them.

It takes majority support and only if Hillary has a majority of the pledged delegation will she get that.

See thorough post with references here ---> http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/27/192143/621

[joshcryer]

51. So in other words, those votes count if they don't matter.

[jefferson_dem]

58. Something like that.

Unless Obama's and Edwards's delegates agree that Hillary deserves to win the nomination...with delegates from a state they didn't compete in.

Read the link. That's the most cogent descriptions of the situtation I've seen.

[joshcryer]

62. I understand the situation, and it's been reiterated for days now.

Sometimes the ethics of posters here astound me.

[jefferson_dem]

66. Ethics?

Who do you support for president again?

[joshcryer]

69. The person who gets the most votes.

THE PERSON WHO GETS THE MOST VOTES

[Joe the Revelator]

61. Your "post above" proves that you have zero idea what you're talking about.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. Florida

Florida is approximately 70% White, 14% Hispanic , 12% African American, 4% other...

It's almost demographically identical to the twenty two states and primaries that will be voting on 2/5 as well as the rest of the nation... IMHO, that's why the election results in Florida the last three presidential cycles so closely mirrored the national results...

This Tueday should give us a good idea of what Super Tuesday will look like...

[Joe the Revelator]

65. If the only thing you're basing that on is race

I know that Hillary supporters have a complete mind lock on racing being the only demographic that matters, but you're failing to take into account gender, education, socio-economic background, age and who knows what else.

You're little theory here doesn't hold water.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. You Would Have To Demonstrate

You would have to demonstrate that those variables differ substantially from the national median or mean and with the possible exception of age I say you can't...

Game

Set

Match

[Joe the Revelator]

79. You're asking me to prove a negative

You're contention that race is the ONLY thing that matters is just plain naive. You're letting your new found ego get in the way of rational thought.


Pretty


Fucking

Sad

[DemocratSinceBirth]

83. You Suggested That Florida Is Atypical

I asked you to demonstrate that is... You couldn't...

I'm not asking you to prove a negative...I'm asking you to cite a commonly used demographic variable that makes Florida atypical...

I suspect it's a little bit older than the rest of the nation with a tad lower median income but beside that it's not atyical at all...

It is what it is...

And saying fuck does not a fucking case make...

[Joe the Revelator]

96. Alright Ego, I'll play ball

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html

Play close attention to:

Persons over age 65
Hispanic Persons
Language other then english spoken at home
Bachlors degrees

All of those demographics are off the national average.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

98. Thanks For Making My Case

I added fast... There were thirty three indices...You identified four where Florida deviated , meaningfully, from the mean...

Of thirty three indices Florida was close to the national average on twenty nine on them or

drum roll please

....

....

EIGHTY EIGHT PERCENT OF THEM...


on edit-I bookmarked that site...Thanks for the link... I am a logical positivist...

[Joe the Revelator]

99. The ones I indicated have been the difference makers in the campaign so far

Drum Roll Please

...
...
....

You just made a fool of yourself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

100. You Almost Snookered Me And The Rest Of Us

22.2% of Floridians have Bachelor's degrees as opposed to 24.4 of Americans... A two percent difference is not significant...

And the percentage of African Americans and Hispanics is a bit higher in FL than in the rest of the country so they cancel each other out...

So, we are left with the my original observation that Florida is very representative of the United States except it has a tad bit more older folks , a tad bit more African American folks , a tad bit more Hispanic folks , and a tad bit more Jewish folks ...

Here's an analogy...If Halle Berry doesn't epitomize feminine beauty she comes damn close...

SCOREBOARD

[avrdream]

103. Ha! I love that Halle Berry analogy.

You rock, DSB.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. "I know that Hillary supporters have a complete mind lock on racing "

Not a big NeckCar fan, sorry...

[jefferson_dem]

81. Demographically, Florida may be representative (though I haven't verified that)...

but that's where the comparison ends this time.

Nobody has campaigned in FL. Floridians have not met the candidates...and had an opportunity to "look under the hood" and "kick the tires." FL is a beauty contest, with judges who are crippled by limited information about the contestants they are judging.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

94. 48%, 49% And 47%

That's the Democratic share of the presidential vote in the last three presidential cycles in Florida...That's less than two points off of the Democratic national share of the vote in the last three presidential cycles...

Florida is a bellweather state...

[jefferson_dem]

97. That doesn't address my point at all.

FL may be a bellweather under normal circumstances. These are not those.

[Tatiana]

101. Insightful...

:kick:

[Tulkas]

104. no delegates, nobody cares

[sunonmars]

105. polls in florida are pointless now, more than 450,000 have voted already

Hillary's taken that by a mile.

[Tatiana]

106. Proud2kickthis... n/t