WSJ, pg1: Obama Gains, But Still Lags in Big States

[DeepModem Mom]

Obama Gains, But Still Lags In Big States
By CHRISTOPHER COOPER and AMY CHOZICK
January 28, 2008; Page A1

Barack Obama's overwhelming weekend victory in South Carolina's Democratic primary gives him new momentum in the run-up to the near-national nominating contest a week from tomorrow, known as Super Tuesday. But Mr. Obama heads into the 22-state showdown as the underdog. The Illinois senator trails Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York by large margins in polls in most of the big states voting Feb. 5. And he lacks the time or resources to campaign intensively in many of those far-flung races to close the gaps.

Mr. Obama's 55% to 26% victory Saturday over Mrs. Clinton was far wider than predicted, and showed off the best assets of his campaign: a powerful ground organization, the perception that he is an agent of change in a party longing for it, and an ability to attract both white and black voters in a state where the electorate remains racially polarized....But for all of the attention Mr. Obama has garnered since his Iowa caucus victory at the beginning of the month, Mrs. Clinton has maintained her big lead in national polls -- and in polls in the big states with delegate prizes far greater than any state that has voted so far.

Among the major Super Tuesday contests, Mrs. Clinton has wide -- in some cases double-digit -- polling leads in California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Missouri and Alabama. Mr. Obama leads in his home state of Illinois and in Georgia. The demographics in many of those states also seem to play more to Mrs. Clinton's strengths, with big populations of Latinos and white women, groups that helped carry her to victory over Mr. Obama in New Hampshire and Nevada....

***

Mrs. Clinton appears to have the edge going into the coming week. Polling conducted since the middle of January -- after her thin-but-surprising victory in the New Hampshire primary -- shows that she holds a decisive and often double-digit edge over Mr. Obama in eight of the 10 most important Super Tuesday states. These states collectively will deliver more than 1,500 delegates; 2,025 are needed to lock up a nomination. But that advantage may be less solid than it seems. Recent polls in California, Arizona, Illinois and Tennessee show anywhere from 1 in 10 to 3 in 10 Democrats still undecided....Statewide polls are often unreliable. And because it's expensive to poll, they often fail to come out frequently enough to reflect changing voter sentiment on the ground....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120148052255320955.html

[madame defarge]

1. The money phrase...

Polling conducted since the middle of January

Let's see what the polls say this week, after SC. And more importantly, let's see what the voters say on Super Tuesday.

Go Obama!

[Dogmudgeon]

2. By Friday, we'll know

If it was a bump, his numbers will start to fall by the end of the week.

If it is the Big Mo, his numbers will continue to rise.

Steady numbers would indicate a bump, too, but NONE of these signals can be counted on to have more than a week's significance at a time.

--p!

[lapfog_1]

3. Since there are no "winner take all" primaries

(at least that's what I've read)... then simply closing the gap and making it competitive will be a win for Obama. Then we get to see the non-super Tuesday states and what they can do.

In any event, getting it close will likely mean that neither candidate will have this sown up for a long time.

If Hillary had come in a respectable second place instead of far back in SC, that does not bode well for her to sweep this. And I'm pretty sure that's why the sudden Florida interest on her part, along with the "seat the delegates from Michigan" fight that's likely to occur.

[Bullet1987]

4. Hillary may only SWEEP two states...New York and New Jersey

People will seriously begin to question her electibility in the General Election now after the butt kicking she got.

[lapfog_1]

5. What I meant to say...

was even if Hillary "wins" all 22 Democratic primaries and caucuses on Feb 5, if Obama is close in most of them, he wins by preventing her from having the nomination sown up. That makes the other states, who haven't yet been heard, important. If Obama wins the majority of those states, we will see a convention where no one can win on the first ballot. Heck, if Obama only "wins" a few of the remaining states, but keeps it close, we will not have a nominee on the first ballot.

And then things get interesting.

[book_worm]

6. they are still going by polls done before SC and the two Kennedy endorsements

it's likely that we will see some big gains in the days ahead for Obama.