Brand New California Poll-Clinton 49% Obama 32% Edwards 14% RCP AVG INCLUDED

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8156.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

[sunonmars]

1. Wow, her polls are holding up very well

I don't think SC is having an effect at all.

[neutron]

6. I'm sure Hornblower Kennedy will

have an effect.
CNN says he's saying HRC has no chance in a national
election.
Pretty negative statement from a guy who
claims he is going to save us from negative politics.

Fortunately, there are enough Kennedys to go around
for everybody.
'And Hillary got the best branch IMHO.

[sunonmars]

8. That was a big mistake, it will embolden clinton voters even more

CNN are fuckwits, they dont tell us, who can win and who can't.

[Beacool]

17. If Teddy really said that Hillary has no chance in the general election,

then he's really hitting below the belt. Those things should never be said around anybody who can then quote you. Does Teddy think that the base of the Democratic party is going to stop loving the Clintons just because he endorsed the new kid on the block??????

Even if Hillary were to lose the nomination, after the trashing that Bill has received lately, does Teddy still expect him to stump for Obama???

[book_worm]

2. poll taken between Jan 23-27 a long period of time and only one day after SC

it would be interesting to note what that one day showed. But overall this poll is mostly from before SC and, of course, the Kennedy endorsement.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

From the survey:

And perhaps most promising for the Clinton campaign, the new poll found that only 4 percent of likely Democratic primary voters had not made up their minds.

[goodgd_yall]

36. But this paragraph from the LA Times seems to contradict that

"Even before those events , the gyrations of the presidential season had California voters uncertain about their loyalties, the poll found. Among Democrats, 3 in 10 likely voters said they could change their minds--including more than half of those supporting John Edwards, in third place with 11% of the vote." I don't think Clinton supporters can breathe too easily just yet.

[goodgd_yall]

31. This is true, but here's a paragraph from the LA Times

"Among Democrats, there was little movement in the last two weeks, at least overall. The New York senator's 17-point margin was statistically the same as her 16-point gap earlier. But she held onto a smaller segment of liberals, men, the less-educated, and coastal and Bay Area voters, among others. She made up for it, however, by increasing her margin of support among Democratic women from 15% to 26%."

It's hard to say. Clinton may lose more votes with the Kennedy endorsements and the push Obama got with the win in S.C., but sometimes those kinds of things bring out people to vote for the candidate who appears as losing. Though Hillary isn't losing, the talk about Obama's large victory in S.C. may give voters the perception she is slipping. I don't think in Clinton's case that there is any thought that she is a sinking ship that must be abandoned.

[Beacool]

3. Great, thank you!!!

[DJ13]

4. These CA polls are deceptive

They only poll Democrats, but our primary now allows independants and crossover Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary.

If you've watched the past primaries you should understand who those votes will break for.

[sunonmars]

7. the USA GALLOP one did and found more or less the same thing

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Don't Think So

They use random dialing and then ask folks what primary they will be voting in...

[MoonRiver]

54. Deja vu, twice over!

I remember hearing this same argument about California, and crossover voting, in 2004 and 2006, or maybe it was when Schwarzenegger was voted in. And I remember somebody posting exactly what you just said about the dialing and questioning.

[rinsd]

14. Republicans are not allowed to vote in the Democratic primary.

Decline to state voters are.

"If you've watched the past primaries you should understand who those votes will break for."

Yeah imagine if one's nomination as the Democratic candidate actually depended upon votes from party members.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

5. Obama will be destroyed on Tsunami Tuesday

[neutron]

12. 'Slime then Whine" Obama

will hopefully be history.

[NJSecularist]

9. If Obama can get within 5-10 points of Hillary

in California, that's a win for him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. How Do You Figure?

If the dynamic doesn't change he will lose seven or eight of the ten largest states in the Union, i.e. CA,NY, OH, PN, MI, TX, FL ...

[XemaSab]

19. I read an analysis that said it's all about electoral votes now

:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Think You Mean Delegates

Electoral votes are what they award in the general election...Instead of trying to patronize me with your emoticons , perhaps you should acquaint yourself of how a nominee is seleted...

Now that I patronized you as you feebly tried to patronize me I will address the substance of your assertion...

The more votes you get the more delegates you get...If you are losing states it seems you won't be getting as many delegates as the person who is winning...

[NJSecularist]

22. I don't think anybody expects Obama to win CA

It's been Clinton territory for a while. But if he can get within 5-10 points and steal a few states that have been dominated by Hillary in polls, Obama's staff has to look at that as a success.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. He Needs To Demonstate He Can Win Large, Heterogeneous States , As Does Any Nat'l Candidate

~

[NJSecularist]

25. The only states that fit that definition on Super Tuesday are CA, NY, MA and NJ.

Other than New York, Obama has a chance to win (or come in a close second) in every state.

[jackson_dem]

28. He has no chance to win any of those states

In Massachusetts 2007 polling had him much closer to third than to first. He won't be close in any of them either, except maybe Mass. if the Kennedy, Kerry, and Patrick endorsements help.

[NJSecularist]

34. In 2008 MA polling Edwards was a distant third

And Obama will continue to bridge the gap after the Kerry and Kennedy endorsements.

I live in New Jersey, I know the attitude towards Obama, he has an outside chance here. He's spent more time here than Clinton over the past month.

[jackson_dem]

39. You're right. I missed them. 2008 polling also shows him getting killed by Hillary

Massachusetts

Flag of MassachusettsMassachusetts winner: To be determined
Primary date: February 5, 2008
See also <24>
Poll source ↓ Date ↓ Highlights ↓
Survey USA

Sampling Size: 586
Margin of Error: ±4.1%
January 22-23, 2008 Hillary Clinton 59%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 11%, Other/Undecided 8%
SurveyUSA

Sampling Size: 539
Margin of Error: ±4.3%
January 16, 2008 Hillary Clinton 56%, Barack Obama 23%, John Edwards 14%, Other/Undecided 7%
State House News

Sampling Size: 244
Margin of Error: ±6.2%
January 9-12, 2008 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 14%, Undecided 11%

Obama has no shot of winning New Jersey.

New Jersey

Flag of New JerseyNew Jersey winner: To be determined
Primary date: February 5, 2008
See also <36><37><38><39>
Poll source ↓ Date ↓ Highlights ↓
Quinnipiac University

Sampling Size: 464
Margin of Error: ±4.6%
January 15-22, 2008 Hillary Clinton 49%, Barack Obama 32%, John Edwards 10%, Dennis Kucinich 1%, Other 1%, Don't Know 7%
Monmouth/Gannett

Sampling Size: 475
Margin of Error: ±4.5%
January 9-13, 2008 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 30%, John Edwards 9%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Other 1%, Don't Know 17%
Research 2000/The Record

Sampling Size: 400
Margin of Error: ±5%
January 9-10, 2008 Hillary Clinton 48%, Barack Obama 23%, John Edwards 11%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Bill Richardson 2%, Mike Gravel 1%, Undecided 13%

[XemaSab]

24. Thanks for clearing up my profound ignorance

n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. That Wasn't My Intention

But you shrugged your shoulders at me as if I made a point befitting that of a moron...

[XemaSab]

30. That wasn't my intent

My intent was to say that I read an analysis arguing that it's all about DELEGATES at this point, and even if Obama comes in second in many Super Tuesday states, he'll still be adding DELEGATES to his total.

The shrug was to indicate that I didn't think winning delegates by coming in second was NEARLY as good as winning delegates by coming in first, so I thought the analysis was ultimately sub-par.

Sorry for the confusion.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. PEACE

Yes- as long as you are winning votes you will be winning delegates...But at some point the person that wins the most votes and wins the most delegates will be the nominee...IMHO, a brokered convention or superdelegates voting against the will of the people is a recipe for disaster...


And I say that regardless of who has the most votes and delegates...

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Polls seem to be pretty useless as of lately

They got New Hampshire wrong and they got South Carolina right but way off in terms of percentages. Seems to me that the unlikely primary voters are getting out to vote for both candidates.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

15. The only race so far where the polls were even close was NV

And I was surprised by that because I expected Clinton to win by 10% or more.

[jaysunb]

13. That's 140 delegates for Obama if this is correct

on 2/6. But, rest assured, it will be much closer.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. He Needs To Demonstate He Can Win Large, Heterogeneous States , As Does Any Nat'l Candidate

~

[jaysunb]

21. He will.

But, I remember hearing that he needed to appeal to the "white" voters in Iowa. DONE. Then he needed to appeal to the independent minded voters of New Hampshire. Done. Then he needed to appeal to Westerners including Latinos. Done. (lost vote total by 600, but gained more delegates--mostly because of rural Nevadans. ) Needed to appeal to Black voters who soooo love the Clintons. Double Done. Can he win in the South. Only Democrat to that lately.
I'm reminded of the old poll tests for Black voters back in the 50's. As soon as you were able to pay the poll tax, the bar was then moved to passing a literacy test, then prove you were more than 3/5 of a human <sarcasm> but you get my drift, don't you ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I'm Not Setting Any Bars

All I am saying is any candidate needs to show he can win a large, heterogeneous state...

For instance, JRE has been unsuccessful in passing that test in two primary cycles...

[jackson_dem]

32. Edwards won the 10th largest state in 2004

Granted it was his home state but the record needs to be corrected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Is Georgia The Ninth

CA-TX-NY-FL-PN-MI-IL-GA-NC

Which state am I missing?

[jackson_dem]

50. Ohio (7th). Georgia is now up to 9th and NC up to 10th. NJ fell from 9th to 11th

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. How Did I Forget Ohio?

I think FL moves up to #3 in the next census...

[goodgd_yall]

37. Nevada did not prove Obama had support among Latinos

Hillary was the one who won the Clark County vote. That is the area in Nevada where most Latinos live.

[BeyondGeography]

29. Like Illinois?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I Didn't Think I Needed To Add "Beside His Home State"

Thank you for bringing that to my attention...

[BeyondGeography]

38. California will be close, New York not so much

Illinois neither.

Super Tuesday will probably provide enough good news for both camps.

March 4, when Ohio and Texas vote, is looking like it will be quite a day.

[jackson_dem]

41. Obama's going to close a 17 point gap in a week in California?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I Suspect The SC Bump Has Not Been Felt Yet

I wonder what impact the Florida results will have...If Hillary wins by twenty or more points will the media be able to ignore it?

[BeyondGeography]

46. Whatever the outcome, the focus will quickly move to Feb. 5

Hard to manufacture media excitement when only one candidate is in the state, plus the Republican result will carry real weight and that's where their focus will be.

Whatever bounce she gets out of Florida will be balanced out from Obama's perspective by SC and Teddy. Which puts us back to where we started.

[jackson_dem]

48. How much of a bump will there even be? Nevada did nothing for Hillary

if Hillary wins big in Florida it should get attention. The wild card is what happens in the rethug race. If the media's favorite rethug wins expect less coverage about Hillary. If Romney wins it helps her in the short term.

[BeyondGeography]

44. Forget the polls

That number means nothing. Call me back if it's 17 points after Sunday night.

[Clintonite]

51. He should! The media attention he is recieving right now is unparralled!

He should get a nice bounce but it will not be enough to win.

[Jed Dilligan]

35. We'll see

It all depends on how "likely" the voters who turn out will be.

[AGirl]

42. This kennedys thing will backfire

People can see through it.

[Jane Austin]

49. See what through it?

That the Kennedys support Obama?

[Blue_State_Elitist]

45. Looking good.

My absentee ballot has already been sent in :)

[ruggerson]

53. Wow, and that's partially after SC

great.

[Tropics_Dude83]

55. What kind of insane democrat....

What kind of insane democrat would challenge HRC for the nomination? I mean. It is CRAZY, NUTS, WHACKED. These poll numbers are devastating. There was a reason Warner, et al., chose NOT to won.

What was Obama thinking?

Lights out! I say this as a less than avid Hillary fan to say the leas but even I can say that she's headed towards a crushing Super Tuesday. Probably a 50-30% national popular vote win and 900 at least of the 1,600 delegates.

26 points up among women!! 26 points!! 26 points!

This race is SO over. In fact, it was over before it began. HRC has an inpenetrable lock on the nomination. I see no way that she will lose it nor any way that she ever could have lost it.