LAT/Poltico CA poll: about half will vote by mail and Hillary leads that group 50-33

[rinsd]

By Cathleen Decker, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
January 29, 2008

<snip>

Clinton maintained a 49% to 32% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats, despite losing some support in key voter groups. Democratic women continued to power her effort, siding with the New York senator by nearly a 2-1 margin.

The poll was conducted largely before Obama's victory Saturday in South Carolina and the subsequent high-profile endorsements of him by U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Massachusetts) and his niece, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg.

The effect of those events was unclear, but even before the latest developments, the gyrations of the presidential season had California voters uncertain of their loyalties, the poll found. Among those likely to vote in the Democratic primary, 3 in 10 said they could change their minds -- including more than half of those supporting John Edwards, in third place with 11% of the vote. More than 4 in 10 Republicans, as well, said they could end up backing another candidate by election day on Feb. 5.


About half of voters are expected to use mail-in ballots -- which have been available since Jan. 7 -- and Clinton was romping over Obama among that group, 53% to 30%. Among those expecting to cast ballots in a traditional precinct visit, the race was a closer 42% to 34% in Clinton's favor. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was also running stronger among mail-in voters, if still behind McCain.

Under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, the survey questioned 1,820 registered voters from Jan. 23 through Sunday, including 690 deemed likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary and another 437 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error was 4 percentage points for the Democratic primary and 5 points among Republicans.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-me-poll29jan29,1,5092615.story?track=crosspromo

[BeyondGeography]

1. Yes, but your enemy is the people who are still thinking about it

[ellisonz]

2. High Turnout.

[Hoof Hearted]

4. I didn't think we had enemies, I thought we had voters.

How very unifying and hopeful of you to suggest voters as enemies.

[BeyondGeography]

12. Yeah...I oppose all the open-minded people who are breaking for Obama

That's it.

[rinsd]

6. Not really Hillary is still winning that group.

[BeyondGeography]

8. Doesn't sound like it

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/30/BAVUUO9E4.DTL

[rinsd]

13. One day of tracking in the midst of a super newscycle for Obama.

[BeyondGeography]

15. Whatever gets you through the night

Personally, I'd be :scared:

[Joe the Revelator]

3. I thought those ballots weren't opened until election day...

how do they know what they say?

What a sorry thing to hang your hat on.

[suston96]

9. It was an entrance poll? Pre-election poll? Maybe even an exit poll.....? nt.

[rinsd]

14. Its a regular opinion poll.

[Joe the Revelator]

24. What ,do they stand ay your mailbox with a clipboard?

nt

[rinsd]

11. Its a poll. Hence the subject line LAT/Politico CA poll

"What a sorry thing to hang your hat on."

So you think it would be a good idea to ignore early voters? To not court them aggressively.

You should be thankful your candidate is not that dense.

[William769]

16. He said this last night.

"voters who decided who voted today broke for Obama, with no campaigning. People who voted MONTHS ago went for Hillary.

Her camp is worried tonight. Don't let the mad hatter party fool you."

What you just posted blows that right out of the water, He usualy gets pissed when he is wrong. Thats why he's always pissed.

[rinsd]

17. Wolsh exists only to annoy Hillary supporters.

He barely participates in positive Obama threads.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

5. Obamaniacs will claim it doesn't count because people voted early

[Nailzberg]

18. You think all those mail votes are for Hillary?

Lots of military in CA that don't like her IWR vote.

[Hoof Hearted]

7. I was going to start a countdown to the first insult hurled at voters by an O supporter,

but your post was already a few seconds old when I opened it.

[sunonmars]

10. well i'm dumbfounded

Donna Brazille, anti Clinton apologist was on CNN and she said Advantage Clinton with Edwards out of the race.

I never thought she'd say that

[LostinVA]

19. I agree with your great post, except for one thing: please change "shrill"

It IS a sexist word, and it's often used as such a weapon against HRC here.

[sunonmars]

20. done, sorry didnt mean to offend

[LostinVA]

21. I would be

A hypocrite if I didn't ask you to change it -- I alert on everyone who uses it!

hehehehehehe


Thanks.

[sunonmars]

22. I near fell off the sofa when she said that

She never puts Hillary in a good light but she pecifically said, this be a real Advantage to Clinton in labour unions and white voters.

I was jawdropped.

[LostinVA]

27. Yeah, she hates HRC

[AX10]

25. Clinton and Edwards have the same voting bloc.

[tishaLA]

23. young voters don't; older voters do.

younger voters favor Obama; older voters favor Sen Clinton

[JackORoses]

26. they have no idea whether mail-in accounts for half the vote

every state so far has broken turnout records.
do you think CA will be any different?

It's interesting that Hillary's lead among mail-in votes in CA seems to match the Florida result.
Florida's flawed Primary is representative of a snapshot of the polls in states before any campaigning is done. It was a name-recognition vote.

Hillary leads among people who made up their mind weeks ago, but she is losing ground fast in the people who won't vote until Feb 5.
The more people see of her and Obama, the more support she loses.
This week cannot go fast enough for her.

[suston96]

28. Oh, I dunno....All those people voting in Florida saw the Kennedy endorsement spectacular....

...and still picked Hillary Clinton.

As to numbers, mail-in ballots ordered versus registered voters can give a pretty good idea of what's out there.

[sunonmars]

29. less than 50% thought it was in anyway important

[rinsd]

30. "mail-in ballots ordered versus registered voters"

Bingo!

[sunonmars]

31. am i right that if you order a mail in ballot, you can't vote in person

the mail in has to come back. Whats the rule?

[rinsd]

32. Once you are absentee, you are absentee.

You can mail in your ballot or drop it off at the local SoS office.

More info here - http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_m.htm

[JackORoses]

33. all those people in FL also knew that no delegates were being awarded

Imagine what the turnout could have been if the contest actually counted.