Not so fast about the newMA Survey USA poll

[CTLawGuy]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/MAPoll.htm


(this is a great site BTW)

among survey USA polls this is little change in the race, while other polls show it much closer.

Survey USA 1/30
Clinton 57%
Obama 33%
Other 7%


Survey USA 1/23
Clinton 59%
Obama 22%
Edwards 11%
Other 2%
Undec 6%

if anything, Obama picked up like 99% of Edwards' support and Clinton fell by 2%

Survey USA 1/16
Clinton 56%
Obama 23%
Edwards 14%
Other 3%
Undecided 4%

So this shows very little change.


Lets look at other contemporaneous polls

Rassmussen 1/28
Clinton 43
Obama 37
Edwards 11


WNEC 1/20-26
Clinton 43
Obama 15
Edwards 8
Other 3
and a shitload of undecideds (31%)

So don't start the party yet Clintonites. Only Survey USA has had clinton above 50%.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Facts be damned!! (K/R)

Thanks for posting

[CTLawGuy]

2. no prob

let's win this on the ground.

[writes3000]

3. Ummm, that last poll has Obama at 15%

Are you sure it's not 35%?

[CTLawGuy]

6. not sure

some polls end up with very high undecided %s.

that was my reaction to that poll.

[jackson_dem]

4. Strange

Rassmussen has them close but the others have Hillary leading by a huge margin. I think if Obama ultimately wins Massachusetts it will be part of a national landslide. It was never one of his strongest state. He was actually behind Edwards in the last 2007 Massachusetts poll. It was his Iowa bounce that helped him get ahead of Edwards. If there is something in the water causing him to surge in Massachusetts it will apply to the rest of the country too. I doubt that even Kennedy can singlehandedly erase a thirty point deficit.

[bernicewilliams]

5. How the hell do you know how much of Edwards' support Obama picked?

Are you a psychic or something?
This poll was conducted the same day Edwards retired. News of this event came out today.
Unless the respondents were political junkies who refresh their websites every 2 minutes, the impact of Edwards' withdrawal will not reflect in this SUSA poll.

[CTLawGuy]

7. because the last poll

did not have edwards in it. Notice how his name is missing.

[sunonmars]

8. However the Surveyusa poll was taken after Florida and Edwards

Rasmussuen was before Florida.

[CTLawGuy]

9. more significantly

it was before edwards dropped out, but Florida isn't going to matter. It wasn't a real fight, it got next to no media coverage, and the coverage it did get said she had no delegates out of it.

[bernicewilliams]

10. That is not true.

Poll was conducted the same day Edwards retired.
News came out on the 31st, unless like I said, respondents were political junkies who get online and stay connected just checking news.

[chascarrillo]

11. Made the morning TV shows, all over the radio...

The news came out on the morning of the 30th. The pollster didn't list Edwards as a choice.

That's how the hell we know how much Edwards support went to Obama.

[suston96]

12. MA RCP averages

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ma/massachusetts_democratic_primary-539.html

RCP Average 01/09 - 01/30 - C 45.0 O 27.5 Clinton +17.5

[TexasObserver]

13. RCP averages are worthless

First, many are outdated.

Second, many are unreliable. ARG, for example, has no credibility at all.

[suston96]

14. But of course. Only the polls and averages favoring your candidate are reliable....

...averages are numbers based on numbers and are used by some pollsters for tracking 3 or 4 days at a time.

That's why averages list the components of the averages so people can see where the numbers come from.

Don't worry, your candidate is improving every day.

[TexasObserver]

15. Some of us aren't as superficial as you

You won't see me dancing around shouting about some outlier poll, or trumpeting the value of today's latest BIG poll result.