Hillary only 11 behind Obama in Illinois

[jackson_dem]

A new American Research Group poll in Illinois finds Sen. Barack Obama leading in his home state over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 51% to 40%, with 8% undecided.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 34%, with 9% undecided.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/01/arg_poll_obama_mccain_lead_in_illinois.html

[jefferson_dem]

1. ARG.

:rofl:

'Nuff said.

[maximusveritas]

3. Seriously, why do they even bother polling anymore?

They should just close up shop and go find something they're better at.

[grantcart]

27. well ARG is only 13 points off the other polls in CT

[in_cog_ni_to]

2. Wow. I thought he had this state locked up.

I know 4 Hillary voters who haven't been polled. I'm sure there's more of us here. This could be very close! I'm surprised.

[City Lights]

4. LOL!

:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

5. No shit.

:rofl:

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[1corona4u]

20. They don't know what else to say....

it's nervous laughter;

"Nervous laughter is used to describe laughter evoked from an audience's expression of embarrassment, alarm, or confusion, rather than amusement. Nervous laughter is usually less robust in expression than "a good belly laugh", and may be combined with confused glances or awkward silence on the part of others in the audience. Nervous laughter is considered analogous to a courtesy laugh, which may be rendered by more of a conscious effort in an attempt to move a situation along more quickly, especially when the comedian is pausing for laughter."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nervous_laughter

[Occam Bandage]

26. While I appreciate your recent enrollment in Human Psych 1002,

you might care to look downthread to find the reason we're laughing. ARG is a terrible polling firm. If Gallup, Zogby, or Ras showed this, I'd be concerned.

[1corona4u]

29. Yeah, I saw that. I'm just not that naive.

[Occam Bandage]

32. Not naive enough to look at a polling firm's record before believing their results?

You have strange definitions.

[1corona4u]

36. I don't personally rely or believe in polls. As I have said many times.

[Occam Bandage]

37. So you think polls are bogus. People laughing at bogus things presented seriously is "insecurity?"

[1corona4u]

40. I never laughed...

so the question doesn't apply to me.

You just want to argue. I don't. You have argues everything I have posted today. Like you're looking for things to argue with me about...

[Occam Bandage]

42. No, you were claiming that the Obama supporters who laughed at ARG's crap polling

were exhibiting "nervous laughter," which does not exactly square.

I've disagreed with you in two threads. It has nothing to do with you. Get over yourself.

[jackson_dem]

43. If Hillary has a 13 point lead in NY why is it so hard to believe Obama has a similar lead in IL?

[City Lights]

24. Your post speaks for itself.

Did you help send what you refer to as an "empty suit" to Washington?

[in_cog_ni_to]

49. Indeed I did. He ran a much different Senate campaign.

He's shown his RW credentials since being sent to Washington. He never ran a "Hope"..."let's play nice with repukes"...."Come together, sing Kumbaya".... rhetoric campaign in his Senate run. If he had, he would NEVER have gotten my vote. LESSON LEARNED.

Should he LOSE this election and run for the Senate again, I will NOT make the same mistake again. I promise you.

[City Lights]

51. Thanks for answering/explaining.

:-)

[LostinVA]

31. " am so sick of the Obama supporter's arrogant, hateful, rude behavior"

Yup. I called two of them "little snots" yesterday, because they were acting like it.

[Occam Bandage]

34. I can't tell what's satirical and what ain't.

[LostinVA]

38. I know

[jackson_dem]

7. I figure Edwards supporters all moved to Hillary

If you live in Illinois but weren't supporting Obama already you were unlikely to choose him when it got down to two. This may explain the poll. It is ARG, though...

[in_cog_ni_to]

15. I was an Edwards supporter and so was my husband and we are both voting for Hillary.

What's wrong with ARG?

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

33. "I was an Edwards supporter and so was my husband and we are both voting for Hillary."

Thank You.

I hope Edwards voice remains a big factor in the upcoming Democratic White House!

[NJSecularist]

6. IMO, if this happens on Super Tuesday, he is screwed

He needs a decisive victory in his own home state to have a chance on Super Tuesday. He needs to. There are certain polls that are outliers, but if this holds true, Obama is fucked.

[LisaM]

8. It's HER home state, too, don't forget!

I always say, she is Cubbies, he's White Sox.

My college roommate, from Chicago, prefers Hillary.

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

39. Go Hillary!, GO CUBS!

[Nailzberg]

46. She's no Cub fan.

No Cub fan would ever wear this.

[HughMoran]

10. The same polling company has Hillary up 13% in CT

If Obama doesn't win IL big and take CT, he may be in big trouble. We'll have to see how the polling goes through Monday.

February 1, 2008 - CT and IL Primary Preferences
Democrats CT IL
Clinton 48% 40%
Obama 35% 51%
Someone else 7% 1%
Undecided 10% 8%

[NJSecularist]

11. What's so bad about ARG?

Why is it that Obama supporters have to discredit any poll that is not favorable to their candidate?

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. I think you know the answer to that.

If Obama was ahead in the ARG polls...they'd LOVE them.

[Occam Bandage]

22. ARG predicted HRC winning Iowa by 9, losing SC by 3, Romney winning IA by 9, Huck winning SC by 10.

They're ridiculously bad.

[MadBadger]

18. Take a look at their history:

Their final poll in Iowa was over 17 points off. They had Clinton leading 34-25 over Obama. That was a huge fuck up. In NH they had Obama up 9. In SC, they always showed it much closer than anybody else did.

[1corona4u]

21. And who fucked up the NH polls?

Oh, that's right, the same shitty pollsters that you Obama supporters rely on daily to make your case here....

[Occam Bandage]

23. Everyone. But ARG fucked up *everywhere* so far. And always in favor of HRC.

[jefferson_dem]

25. Personally, I do not dismiss polls, even those with results which are not Obama-friendly.

I dismiss bad polling firms. ARG is an absolute joke. If they showed Obama way ahead, I would be worried.

[Clarkansas]

12. How good has ARG been

this election cycle?

[featherman]

14. Obama obviously needs better than a 60-40 split in IL

Let's see how it goes when the votes are tallied

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

16. GO HILLARY!

[loveangelc]

17. hahaha ARG. which showed her up like 20 in Iowa and 2 in SC. ARG is poop.

[TSIAS]

19. I'm confused

Rasmussen has Obama up 60-24, before Edwards dropped out.

Nevertheless, Illinois isn't really being contested.

[HughMoran]

28. The issue is, Obama is counting on getting the lions share of delegates from Illinois

in order to be competitive on Super Tuesday. If he does not totally dominate Illinois, he could be in big trouble.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. ARG has been off on every primary state this election.

Which is why Obama supporters are laughing.

ARG predicted Clinton would win Iowa by double digits, she didn't.
ARG predicted Obama would win NH by double digits, he didn't.
ARG predicted Clinton was closing the gap in South Carolina (within a few points, if I recall), she lost by 30.

[zulchzulu]

35. Obama will win Illinois by 15%

Bookmark this.

[cooolandrew]

48. Yep despite Hillary's local Rezko stuff, Illinois like and believe in Barack.

[truebrit71]

41. "only"...he wins this State in a frigging stroll....

...

[goldcanyonaz]

44. Any poll that does NOT show Obama ahead is an outlier. I learned that here.

[book_worm]

45. Rasmussen has the race at 60-29 in IL

[cooolandrew]

47. If 8 percent undecided then he still wins if poll proves true.

[sunonmars]

50. 2 weeks ago this was 60% to 22% for Obama, big shift

[rodeodance]

52. and this is news--his home state.

[Tatiana]

53. Damn... I just realized there is a "jefferson_dem" and a "jackson_dem."

I don't know why I thought they were the same poster.

But yeah... it's still going to be a blowout in IL, similar to NY for Clinton.