Mark Penn really is over-rated, Axelrod is owning him, how to defeat Obama, and other thoughts

[synesthesia]

***before reading this, realize I'm an Obama supporter, mostly because I'm convinced he can be the liberal Reagan, and sell independents on progressive ideas (also, helping America's image abroad with soft power of a black candidate), etc, so don't get offended by my objective critique

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Given the nostalgia people have for the 90s, and the relative impression that Hillary is extremely capable, etc, etc., we should really be surprised this is even a contest. Hillary should have ended this by now.

I think Penn and the Clinton team really are not very good at politics. They got lucky in the past with better candidates, and are coasting on their 90s cred.

Their initial strategy was just to make her inevitable, which caused Iowa folks to backlash and spite them.

They don't really understand what Axelrod does, which is, to paint a narrative like an author that appeals to people's emotions and leads them through a story. Hillary has a lot of virtues they don't exploit. They don't really give emotional appeals as to why to vote for her, except for the feminist card (the New Hampshire cry was their only really good move so far).

Hillary's campaign is too wonkish when positive, and too scattershot when going negative at Barack Obama. If I were going to attack Obama, I'd go right at his biggest strength, his speeches and inspirational style.

How? Easy. The Deval Patrick campaign that Axelrod is using a blueprint. Really Deval Patrick used almost all of Obama's best lines, word for word. Emphasis on life biography, etc, etc. My sister, an Obama fanatic, really lost her Obama love when confronted with how similar the entire thing is. Run ads that show them side by the side, the speeches, the rhetoric, etc. It really makes Obama look manufactured, which is a hunch people have.

see: http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=10134

and...

http://thephoenix.com/printerfriendlyB.aspx?id=54627

Stress how he uses a teleprompter for his speeches. Over and over and over again. Just keep harping on how he's a puppet of Axelrod. Show Deval talking about 'the pettiness of our differences', 'the politics of fear', etc. use the clips. This might cause some racist backlash ('what, the white guy takes the credit!'), but it'd be slight.

Instead they attack him on Rezko or some minor detail here or there that no one cares about. People buy into the personality, and you have to fight the personality and not the details.

Penn's whole thing kind of reminds me of Shrum's campaigns, which also were terrible.

Axelrod really is the star of the Democratic party. He did a great job with Edwards in 2004 (who was the Obama of 2008, slightly tweaked).

Hillary will still win I suspect, but only because of built in advantages.

[slor]

1. What channel? n/t

[featherman]

2. Good insights - thanks for taking the time

Beneath the radar, Mark Penn is not well liked or even regarded as particularly capable especially by the progressive wing of the party. It was something of an odd choice for Clinton to make IMO. Very Shrum-like

[rodeodance]

3. Curious: what you mean by [not flaming you} with soft power of a black candidate)

(also, helping America's image abroad with soft power of a black candidate)

[synesthesia]

5. re: soft power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_power

It's a concept most people don't take into consideration. Hillary is a woman, but she's white and part of a dynasty,

Soft power can be as important as hard power (using the military, for example).

I'm writing these posts from where I'm living abroad in Israel, and even in the most-pro American country, Americans are seen as somewhat racist and bigoted.

If Israelis feel this way, imagine how Africa, Europe, the rest of the Middle East, etc. feel. It hurts America's power diplomatically.

Having a black president really makes the rest of the world doubt their assumptions about America's racism, lack of international fairness, imperialism, etc. People, go, hrmmm. Hence, a lot of soft power to work things out.

I know it sounds superficial to have a black president for the sake of it, but it'd really really really help, especially in the Middle East. Obama is seen as an international figure, grew up in Indonesia, has Muslim relatives (right wingers froth, but people around the world LOVE HIM FOR IT).

It's really really really important. Like 10 times more important than people realize. We can not be an isolated country. We need to regain world love.

[LostinVA]

8. Oh Gawd -- HRC is NOT "part of a dynasty"

That word gets misused on here alot.

[rodeodance]

16. I agree. that is part of the explanation that gave me a knee-jerk.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

17. Dynasty

dy·nas·ty (dī'nə-stē) Pronunciation Key
n. pl. dy·nas·ties

A succession of rulers from the same family or line.
A family or group that maintains power for several generations: a political dynasty controlling the state.


Don't see any misuse. :shrug:

[rodeodance]

14. thank you. very informative.

[1corona4u]

19. Bullshit.

I would like for YOU to prove to me, where you are getting your information from. Where did you find that;

"I know it sounds superficial to have a black president for the sake of it, but it'd really really really help, especially in the Middle East. Obama is seen as an international figure, grew up in Indonesia, has Muslim relatives (right wingers froth, but people around the world LOVE HIM FOR IT)."


I wrote the following to someone this morning, call me psychic;

Will he be able to repair our reputation in the world? Some say that because he's black, and he lived outside the country, he can relate more to other countries. I don't see it that way at all. It's even been suggested that because he's black, the rest of the world would have more respect for us, given that we have 'finally gotten over our racial divide'. I found that hilarious.

Since when does the rest of the world care what color our president is? This country is 80% white, 12% black. If I was in the Philippines, I'd expect their president to look like a Pilipino, not a white, because it would be 'fair'. It's not odd that we haven't had a black president in my mind. It is odd though, that we've never had a woman president. Men have suppressed every woman that has tried, and if they have their way this time, they will have succeeded again. That's definitely discrimination. Other countries have women presidents. This country won't allow it.

[rodeodance]

4. "Hillary should have ended this by now"--gosh, but when I run up with phases

like this--it is just a reader stopper!!

[LostinVA]

6. "the liberal Reagan" -- Oh boy

[Proud2BAmurkin]

7. Penn is winning.

[synesthesia]

9. *

Yeah, 'he' is winning, and likely will have the winning candidate. But seriously, it's Hillary we're talking about here. She has the potential to be such a good candidate, despite what people think. Such a good resume and the Clinton legacy is very highly regarded with democratic base. Seen as so smart and all that. Doesn't make gaffes, debates well, etc. Is not nearly as icey as she's being.

Penn reinforces all the bullshit about how 'divisive' the Clintons were with them trotting Bill out to play attack dog. People would have rejected this meme if it hadn't been waved back in front of them. And in the end, it really did no damage to Obama.

All of Obama's wounds have been self inflicted ('you're likeable enough Hillary', and snubgate). None of the actual Clinton attacks stuck really.

They should have kept Bill as an elder statesman.

Really, if they had just done nothing at all, and just kind of chilled, I bet they would have won the nomination anyways. The campaign has been pretty awful.

The crocodile tears at the NH primary was good though. I bet it was Bill's idea. They played the media like a fiddle too in getting them to 'pile on' and then overcover the entire thing. But one brilliant stoke does not erase an overall inept and uncreative campaign.

[rodeodance]

18. Hill could have done it on her own without the 'sideshow" yes.

[Strelnikov_]

10. " he can be the liberal Reagan, and sell independents on progressive ideas "

Yep, me too.

Gobama.

[Dogmudgeon]

11. Interesting insights -- thanks!

<MODE partisan=OFF wonk=ON/>

My own view is that Penn is Hillary's factotum, while Axelrod is an active player on Team Obama. Hillary is clearly gifted at politicking; Obama is more introspective, so he's going to require a more engaged team.

I have been unaware how similar Patrick's approach is to Obama's. I'll have to check it out.

Almost all of Hillary's attacks on Obama have been apparent blunders made off-the-cuff, while Obama's attacks on Hillary are disciplined and occur in the context of speeches. (And the "snub" is an aberration; I do not think it was a snub at all, but a misinterpretation of a photograph.) This could work to her favor, especially if she decides to discontinue the attacks and Obama ratchets them up. People may start to think that Hillary isn't really intending to attack, while Obama IS.

But I am sure that both teams will be on their best behavior until at least next Thursday.

Many people claim that Hillary is "calculating", but I think she is exceptional at improvisation, while Obama excels at ratiocination. I have read a number of his essays and the man has a (Bill) Clintonian level of intelligence. They are two of the most formidable statesmen in our Democracy's history.

Hillary's town hall event on Monday night is a big risk. It is too close to Super Tuesday to provide maximum bounce, and if the commentariat talk it down all day, it could have a purely negative effect. It will depend entirely on how she handles it.

The biggest problem Team Obama has now is that they are experiencing a huge, media-assisted bounce. Once Super Tuesday is over and its own effects have worn off, there could be a period of wandering in the desert while Hillary benefits from a long, cumulative trickle of endorsements and good news. I strongly believe that the mass media are trying to drive the primaries and the election as close to a 50/50 split as possible to keep the ad money coming in. The real risk is how it set up Al Gore for his "loss" in 2000.

I am still of the opinion that, like McCain, Hillary will a) win the nomination, b) choose Barack Obama as her running mate, c) choose several of the other Democratic candidates as cabinet members almost immediately so they can run as a team. McCain is credibly reported to favor Huckabee for VP to make peace with the social conservatives. If he has (pardon the expression) the audacity to invite Ron Paul for a cabinet position, he will have re-built most of the Conservative Republican coalition.

Of course, I could be wrong.

We live in interesting times.

--p!

[synesthesia]

12. *

Pig, brilliant post, I want to respond to more of it when I get back home, lot of interesting points

But as a quick thing, in terms of the Deval Patrick-Obama thing

read this,

http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=10134

and...

http://thephoenix.com/printerfriendlyB.aspx?id=54627

there's a bunch of other good blogs about it that I will dig up when I have time, they really say the exact same things (got no problem with it, IT WORKS to get people to vote democrat)

Deval actually had to switch saying 'yes we can' as his campaign theme to, 'together we can', because a reporter called him out on how Obama was using it, and they didn't want to make it TOO OBVIOUS

It amazes me, the Clintons haven't pounced on this. Fear of racism backlash (giving credit to a white guy for 'creating' the success of a black guy allegation? I don't quite know. Maybe they polled it and it didn't stick with people.

[synesthesia]

13. *

Some stuff re: what you said.

I agree, the funny thing is, Obama is the polar opposite of his public face. I kind of think Mathin Luther King was as well.

Obama IS very introspective. In fact, he's an introvert. At Columbia, apparently he kind of just stuck to himself according to peers. He's a deep and nuanced thinker, and a brilliant mind. It's amazing how he transforms into charismatic in speech. That's why the debates really hurt him (last night was his best by far though). It shows who he really is. An intellectual. A nuanced intellectual, like, uhh, Al Gore. It's really ironic.

I agree the snub was not really a snub. It's absurd to think someone as smart as Obama is actually 'offended' and 'mad' at Hillary for political theatre. They both know it's a game. Give me a break. He probably didn't see her, or felt anxious, or something else alltogether. To think he'd make the strategic error of snubbing her on purpose, when he is such a political mind, is really not rational.

NONETHELESS, perception is reality in this circus. And the perception was that of a snub. So it was a self inflicted wound. And one thats bigger than people realize IMO. It will stick. Tall arrogant black man snubs poor white woman, etc.

Totally agree on Obama's intelligence. I've read a lot and thought the same thing. I bet him and Bill and Hillary would have a blast together, hanging out, shooting the shit on politics. Him and Hillary even have Chicago Saul Alinsky roots.

The media definitely gravitates to make things a horse race. I'm not sure it's so deliberate though. It's almost like a gravitational pull that's organic. Nonetheless, I too, have always felt the Obama thing will run out of steam. It's a pretty self contained phenom.

If the primary season had been shorter like in the past, great, but with this type of length, how long can you keep up a 'movement' campaign without making it seem 'Washington'.

I actually don't think she will tap Obama as a running mate. One, I'm not even sure he'd want to be 'tainted' by her. I think she will get trounced in 2012, largely because she will inherit a county in terrible shape, and will be blamed for a lot of problems outside of her control. Obama is smart enough to anticipate her becoming a political leper and being patient for the future. In her case, I feel the Clintons might not 'trust' Obama enough. He's too independent minded. They are a secretive bunch.

Although he's in a tight situation. Say he loses. He realizes that a decade in Senate will make him seem old hat and 'typical' (say to run in 2016). He knows Hillary will beat McCain (and she will) in 08, and no way he stages a primary challenge in 2012 (will be perceived as too 'ugly' given what happened in 08). He could resign and take the Illinois governor seat. Does that make him seem too ambitious? Not even sure what he should do.

The lack of good options for him really might make him accept a VP nod. Hrmm...

[1corona4u]

15. What?

You said;

(also, helping America's image abroad with soft power of a black candidate)


Please, explain.

[synesthesia]

20. *

corona, read this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_power