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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 05:40 PM
Original message
The problem with focusing on delegates rather than popular vote...
...is that popular vote wins are seen by the people as clear mandates. Clinton was polling *single* digits when he made his run in 1992, but after winning Illinois he slowly destroyed the rest of the candidates, even though they continued to pick up delegates, his margins got bigger and bigger. Remember the whole "Comeback Kid" meme? Hillary basically mirrored that in NH (though when Bill "came back" he only placed second). Granted, large wins, of more than a 15% margin, are necessary to catapult a candidate forward, the fact remains that popular vote wins are seen more favorably than someone "going after delegates."

All that said, I think Obama has a good chance to go over the top in some states, but I believe if he wants real momentum he needs to win those states, not just half the delegates.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. Clinton campaign: "it's delegates that count"
"It's useful to win states, but states don't vote -- delegates do," said Harold Ickes, who is heading up the delegate operation for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

"This is very much a race for delegates at this point," said Ickes, a longtime Clinton insider and aide to President Bill Clinton.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3124420220080131
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. And who whined that they "got more delegates" in NV???
Nonexistent delegates, who haven't been selected, or seated, yet...???

What an amusing post!
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Obama's campaign has been parroting that for months, HRC is clearly taking that talking point...
...as her own because she wants to be able to say she "won" a state just because she got half the delegates, just as Obama did with Nevada.

But this doesn't make a nominee, state wins do, not "getting half the delegates."

Prove me wrong. I've never in my life heard of candidates focusing primarily on delegates.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. It's all about delegates
Otherwise they would just make every state winner take all and not have super-delegates at all.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Because it's been a long, long time that things have been this evenly
split and likely to remain so through March. We're getting into uncharted territory.
And it is all about the delegates now just like the election is all about the Electoral College.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. True. The MSM makes these highly divided campaigns. We won't ever have a united country as long...
...as the media creates horse races that wouldn't have existed otherwise.

But you and the other poster seemed to miss the point of what I'm saying. State wins = momentum. Delegates = meh.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-01-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Not when it's reported like this
Nevada 13 delegates Obama - Nevada lights up on the map

Regardless, when Obama wins states like Idaho and Colorado, people are going to wake up and take notice. There's no way Hillary gets any momentum at this point. The best she'll do is win states she should have, and by a lesser margin. Tuesday will be her last hurrah.
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