Clinton to ride out Obama surge
By Dave Marash in Washington DC...If Barack Obama can pull off upsets in any of the three states in the New York City metropolitan area, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, it could be a sign of a national landslide, according to veteran political observers. But, they agree, this is very unlikely to happen. Maurice Carroll, a former New York Times political reporter who now runs the respected Quinnipiac Poll, says Obama has been making up ground in recent weeks.
"Hillary Clinton had a two to one lead just a month ago, and making up that big a difference seems all but impossible," says Carroll.
Obama's best chance may come in New Jersey, says Carroll, where polls show the Illinois senator closing a smaller gap than the one in New York.
In both New York and New Jersey, the Clinton campaign has signed up almost all the local Democratic leaders, putting at its disposal, election-day operations which can, especially in New Jersey, be very efficient. While Obama has been endorsed by some younger legislators in all three states, none of them has the political organisation to match up to what Clinton will have available. It was a similar alliance, Clinton and the state Democratic leadership, that worked well in Senator Clinton's key win in the New Hampshire primary last month. Analysts say some New Hampshire voters who had pledged support to Obama did not follow through on election day, in part, perhaps, because they were not pushed to the voting booths as efficiently as the state party's pro-Clinton turnout machine....
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