Obama may tie or in fact beat Hillary by a few points in CA on election day but it DOESN'T MATTER

[Herman Munster]

47% of the votes in California are projected to be early voters who mail in their votes by absentee ballot. According to polls, Hillary has at least a 20% lead among these early voters in California. So now it's just a math game.

If 53% of CA voters vote on election day and Obama ties Hillary, she will win California by 9% based on her strength among early voters.

Worst case scenario for Hillary is she loses California to Obama by 5% on election day, with the strength of her early voters she would still win California by 6% or so.

[msongs]

1. I will write in al gore if write ins are allowed. this year, no more e-vote machines here! nt

[neutron]

2. Somebody's out Freeping tonight

[still_one]

24. no offense, but on what basis do you indicate that a discussion about evoting

is "freeping"

[rhett o rick]

30. As only you would know. nm

[still_one]

22. Yes you can do write-ins. The Secretary of State decertified the touch screens

most will vote by hand in this election

[Levgreee]

3. Where do you get information on how many people are early voters

[Nailzberg]

16. The percentage is about right. However, the idea that gives HRC a 20 pt edge, is iffy.

That's how many people requested mail-in ballots. I've read that, of the mail-in ballots, a quarter have been returned. Ballots must be received by election day. They can be mailed or hand delivered.

A lot of people hold off to see how the campaign develops, so just because they early voting opened a month ago when Hillary had a commanding lead, doesn't mean the votes were made immediately.


Despite the rapid growth in voting by mail, academics who study the phenomenon offer some broad generalizations about who those voters are.
“They're older, they're a little bit more partisan and better informed than most,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California San Diego. “They're people who are more likely to have their minds made up. Their vote is going to be less responsive to the political winds than those who turn out on Election Day.”

They also tend to vote late, which raises questions about how effective efforts to lock up mail votes early will be.
“More and more people are doing it,” Kousser said, “but what hasn't changed is that the vast majority of people who vote absentee vote the weekend before Election Day or on Election Day.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20071124-9999-1n24absentee.html

The article also points to the 20% independent vote in CA. They are locked out of the GOP primary, but not the Dem primary. And that vote likely favors Obama.

[CyberPieHole]

4. I sent my vote in for Hillary Clinton...

I hope she wins California.

[still_one]

27. I sent my vote in for Obama, I hope he wins California /nt

[Joe the Revelator]

5. How do you know how these people voted

SInce they don't open the ballots until election day?

Also, that 47% includes people voting republican ballots.

[Herman Munster]

9. when poll companies poll voters they ask how they actually voted

[Joe the Revelator]

12. So where is a link/break down of one of these polls?

[still_one]

25. It is BS. Absentee votes are counted first after the polls are closed and

NO ONE knows what they are until after the polls close

[Joe the Revelator]

28. Exactly. Its another Clinton tactic to supress turnout.

[still_one]

29. Too late I already voted absentee in California for OBAMA!!! /nt

[bernicewilliams]

6. That's a very good observation

In order for Obama to win CA, he would have to beat Hillary by a large margin among Super Tuesday (non-early) voters, due to the large number of early voters that already cast their ballots.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. So you should have nothing to worry about, big winner!

Why bother posting this?

:shrug:

Oh, right...

[KennedyGuy]

8. I think its highly unlikely..

Remember New Hampsire, the media is trying to prop up Obama to keep the horserace alive...

[Levgreee]

10. Obama didn't lie down and let them vote Hillary before he campaigned

""The fluidity and uncertainty in the race would normally lead people to hold their ballots," said Paul Gronke, who directs the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore. "What is cutting in the other direction is that the campaigns are out there mobilizing people to vote early."

"They're getting hammered by these campaigns," Gronke said.

It isn't a coincidence that Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are running their first California TV ads in the northern part of the state, which typically has the highest concentration of early voters."

"Obama's campaign said it has placed 500,000 "neighbor to neighbor" calls trying to lock in early voters in California and Arizona. Absentee voters in Phoenix have gotten visits from Obama canvassers. In Obama's home state, Illinois, elected officials in Chicago helped to kick off early voting activities for the senator.

The Obama campaign said it also has pursued early voters in Tennessee, Utah and Georgia.

"All Obama supporters have been reminded about early voting and been given the tools to do so," said Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt."

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. Ca will end up about the same as Florida.

[Zueda]

13. Have you considered that 20% of CA's 15.7 million voters are indies and cannot participate

in the GOP contest ;)

[featherman]

14. Actually, Herman, it seems only 22% of them have voted by mail

I don't know if that is as of today or what. I'll try to re-find the article and post a link. (should have saved it)

Add on edit: there is also a percentage (I personally know several) who get their ballots by mail but prefer to go to the poll and drop them off. Makes them feel more like they've voted rather than sent a Christmas card. Just saying... don't expect that 47% all voted two weeks ago or even last week

Ah here is something from Google about this. It seems you may be jumping the gun to think these are all early, already voted ballots:

" Myriad complications arising from California's earliest-ever statewide election have left registrars worried that they will end Election Night with up to 2 million ballots left uncounted, about 22 percent of the expected vote total./snip/

/snip/• More than half of all voters will cast mail-in ballots, but a large percentage are expected to mail them at the last minute or drop them off at polling places on Election Day. Those late ballots will be tallied only after the precinct count and first must go through a time-consuming verification process.

http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8137237

It's not as straightforward as you and I thought a few days ago.

[ErnestoG]

18. Damn those FACTS! The bugaboo of any Hillary supporter....

[Levgreee]

15. Also, where do you get "at least a 20% lead"?

"Clinton, leading by 15 percentage points in a late January poll, is trying to summon the political magic that gave her husband commanding victories here in 1992 and 1996. She's counting on a big payoff from efforts to identify and lure absentee voters, who could account for more than half the ballots on Feb. 5."

[rufus dog]

17. and I will be out voting for Obama on Tuesday

WOO HOO

[scheming daemons]

19. So... you prove the point....

....those that voted BEFORE they really got to know all the candidates went for Name Recognition and picked Hillary.

....those that waited and got to know more about Obama decided to vote for him.


Is *THAT* the narrative you really want coming out of Super Tuesday?

[featherman]

20. Here's a little more that may blunt this perceived Clinton edge

"As of Thursday, McWilliams estimated that his office had received about 39,000 vote by mail ballots for the Feb. 5 primary election, of the approximately 81,000 ballots sent out. About 48 percent of all Solano County voters chose to vote by mail, he said."

http://www.timesheraldonline.com/ci_8139720

So if this average bears out, then slightly less than half of the vote-by-mail ballots have been returned as of yesterday bringing the likely "early vote" total to less than one/quarter statewide. Finally, it's likely that at least a percentage of these came after the Kennedy announcement which may (or may not) have cut into the perceived Clinton lead of early voters.

Extrapolating all this your 20% edge is, of course, reduced to 5% or less of what promises to be the final total. I could also go into the possible impact of Edwards/other votes from early mailers versus the much reduced Edwards/others from later/same day voters and how it would affect the final Clinton/Obama totals but it's a point or two, perhaps.

I could be wrong but my feeling on the ground in CA now is that Clinton doesn't gain much or any delegate advantage from CA.

[featherman]

31. Well I was expecting a response especially since the original post

was "all about the math". If it is indeed all about the math, then you must have been talking about my particular specialty. So what's up?

[still_one]

21. Hmmmm, they didn't call me, and I voted for Obama absentee

and since absentee ballots are kept secret until after the election, and then counted first right after the polls close

If I didn't know better I would think you are bias for Hillary

No one knows how California will go because of all the young that are not being polled

[KittyWampus]

23. Oh it matters if Hillary tanks that badly. She's bleeding support nationally. She was ahead HOW much

and all she can do is rely on early ballots to eek out a win?

[Spider Jerusalem]

26. fun fact:

It may not matter if Hillary polls a higher percentage of the total vote, because that's not how the delegates are apportioned. If Obama loses 45 to 55, in total vote percentage, he may still come out on top in total delegate count (as he did in Nevada). This is a simple and basic truth of the process we have that far too many people seem totally ignorant of.