FL and MI, when seated, will net Clinton 114 delegates. It will not be that close.

[tekisui]

The delegates will be seated by either winner. The total net change will be plus 114 for Hillary Clinton.

MI-79 for HC
55 for Uncommitted

Fl-108 for HC
73 for BO

Obama or Clinton will assuredly win the Nomination by more than 114. They will be seated, and it will not effect the winner.

[kdmorris]

1. Again, so what??

We didn't have any part in choosing the nominee.

So what if they delegates are seated? Of course they will seat them if their victory is already assured, but that's not the point, so why do people keep saying it like it makes it all better that the delegates will be seated after the nominee is chosen?

[tekisui]

3. What solution do you have at this point?

I think it's shit what happened. I know the voters didn't cause it to happen, but what to do, now?

Seat the votes casts makes sense to me. I'm sorry that you didn't play a part, but lots of states, due to late voting dates don't "play a part".

What other option do you see?

[kdmorris]

5. There were never any good options

after the State Democratic parties screwed us all over. I'm just kind of upset that anyone thinks seating the delegates makes a difference, especially with Michigan. Since Hilary was one of the few Democrats on the ballot there, and the other two front runners were not, then it is clearly unfair. If there is only one person on the ballot, how the fuck is that fair?

I truthfully think it would be better to NOT seat the delegates, since everyone seems to believe that seating them will somehow fix this. It doesn't. And then, the people of Floridia and Michigan need to dump their party leaders and get other people who aren't just Democrats In Name Only (Karen Thurman had to change her party affiliation to run for Chairwoman of the Florida State Party. She's a Republican that changed to Democrat so that she could be elected.

[tekisui]

6. I actually agree with you.

I think they should sick to the pre-chosen punishments. Like you said, Michigan is blatantly unfair.

The thing that bugs me is the people running around acting like the Dems won't vote in the General or that they will vote puke out of spite.

[kdmorris]

7. People who do that are idiots anyway.

I don't think there's a high percent of people who will do it though.

I certainly plan on showing up on Election Day, for two reasons:

To vote for whatever Democrat happens to be running.

To vote NO on the new amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman.

[tekisui]

8. Scream it loud.

I said, here, the other day that the Dem voters would still turn out in November and was accused of insulting the intelligence of Florida voters.

I felt I was respecting their ability to understand the options.

[sunonmars]

2. Unless Florida delegates tell Barack to take a hike and give them all to HRC

Can they do that?

[tekisui]

4. I don't think so. They are pledged.

[featherman]

9. No delegates were selected in FL or MI

That's the point of the DNC invalidating the primary. I'm not quite sure why this is confusing. There was voting but not delegate selection. Two separate processes.

This is how it is likely to work out:

Scenario #1: no delegation seated - never, ever gonna happen.

Scenario #2: only super-delegates represent each state - not gonna happen

Scenario #3: having only two viable candidates remaining makes this easier for the DNC negotiations

The DNC sets the convention rules. They are the absolute authority in this. That's how it works. Because the primaries violated the DNC's convention rules as to how delegates are awarded the results are null and void and cannot be used in any way to apportion delegates. This part is a no brainer.

But the likely outcome is that either a full or partial (penalized) delegate slate will be seated. It will likely be comprised of delegates selected in one of two ways:

- evenly split between the two remaining contenders or apportioned according to overall total delegates won by the end of the full nationwide primary season (55%-45% for example)
- the campaigns will be asked to select the delegates of their choosing to be seated
- the super-delegates are part of the total delegation but remain uncommitted until the first ballot voting

It's always all about the delegates and I foresee no way that FL and MI remain unrepresented.

[tekisui]

10. Thanks, that was very helpful.

:hi:

One more question, if I may. I don't understand the "first ballot voting". Is there then a second ballot, does it have to do with thresholds, and is this when Edwards delegates would come into play?

[featherman]

11. At some point in the convention the balloting for Presidential

nominee begins. State rules differ but generally the delegates that were selected in the primaries and caucuses will vote on the first ballot according to how they were chosen.For example State XYZ: 14 for Clinton, 12 for Obama, one for Edwards, one for Kucinich (if it had turned out that way, just an example).

The super delegates who are Senators, Governers, Representatives, Party Chairs, and other heavy hitters (about 20%) vote any way they wish.

If the first ballot comes out where no candidate has a majority then it goes to the second ballot. All delegates are "released" on the second ballot and free to vote anyway they choose

And a second ballot is taken. But in between the ballots a lot of arm twisting and favor calling and just judgment decisions are made. The voting will then likely move toward the candidate who is perceived as the better, stronger candidate. Eventually a consensus takes place and the party unites behind a candidate.

Last time this happened was 1952 when it took Adlai Stevenson (IL) three ballots to prevail over Estes Kefauver (TN). Kefauver became his Veep running mate but they lost the general to Eisenhauer/Nixon as we know.

[tekisui]

12. Thanks again!

[my3boyz]

13. I guarantee you that

they will NOT seat those delegates if Obama is ahead and it makes a difference between him or Hillary winning. All of his supporters (especially African Americans) would be furious if they DNC changed their decision so that Hillary could win the nomination. If he legitimately lost I think most of his supporters would vote for the nominee. If it was taken from him then I seriously doubt if his supporters would vote. Which would mean McCain would be the next president of the United States. DNC better think long and hard before they tick off a large part of their base.

[tekisui]

14. For it to have an effect, the delegate count would have to be so close.

2,082 for BO
and 1968 for HC, less than 113 delegates separation.

But see the posts upthread. Featherman does an excellent job explaining what actually happens. The delegates from FL and MI will get a vote, but not an effect.

In essence the delegates will count, not the voters.

[joshcryer]

15. I guarantee you that if the delegates cannot be seated, there will be a brokered convention.

[joshcryer]

16. Uncomitted would probably go to BO on a tabled vote, out of fairness. So it's closer than that.