How many and which states will Obama win on Super Tuesday? I say 15 out of 24 contests go to OBAMA

[Dems Will Win]

Here's the list and my predictions:

Alabama primary OBAMA (by a hair)
Alaska caucus OBAMA
American Samoa primary CLINTON
Arizona primary CLINTON
Arkansas primary CLINTON
California primary OBAMA (by a hair)
Colorado caucus OBAMA (by a hair)
Connecticut primary OBAMA (by a hair)
Delaware primary OBAMA
Democrats Abroad primary OBAMA
Georgia primary OBAMA
Idaho caucus OBAMA
Illinois primary OBAMA
Kansas caucus OBAMA
Massachusetts primary CLINTON
Minnesota caucus OBAMA
Missouri primary OBAMA
New Jersey primary CLINTON
New Mexico caucus CLINTON
New York primary CLINTON
North Dakota caucus OBAMA
Oklahoma primary CLINTON
Tennessee primary CLINTON
Utah primary OBAMA

That gives Obama 15 out of 24 on Super Tuesday. As I explained in an earlier thread, Obama is then likely to take 19 out of the remaining 25 contests.

Final count would be Obama winning 36 contests and Clinton 17, with FL and MI not counting.

Obama would be the nominee unless something big shakes up the race.

[sunonmars]

1. you seem optomistic,lol, we'll revisit this on Wed morning

[Zueda]

2. You have to consider the likely possibilty of Clinton shenanigans...

as observed in Nevada. I expect these to play out in California.

[Dems Will Win]

3. Not going to happen. CA has the best elections I've ever seen

It's too damn big. Clinton hsa no ground game or even many precinct captains. It's all TV ads for her.

Obama has TV and 5,080 precinct captains, the first ground game ever in a CA primary!

He's taking the state.

[BenDavid]

6. You going "all in" on that forecast?

[Bullet1987]

7. I have to slightly agree...Obama looks good in CA

But I don't expect him to win big. The delegates will likely be split almost down the center no matter who wins (unless something surprising happens). People ignore the fact that CA is an Open Primary for the Dems and not Republicans...so you'll get a LARGE number of Indies who come out and support Obama. You cannot come close to comparing CA to FL.

[WinkyDink]

15. "LIKELY POSSIBILITY"?? Spoken not like a Democrat.

[Bullet1987]

4. I don't think there's any way of knowing how these states will fall

since the majority of them don't even have polls coming out. Though, I will say that there's no way Clinton sweeps. I think Obama picks up at LEAST 10 (or he better if he wants to stay in this), but that's just a minimum...he'll definently want...if not NEED to win more than that for pure PR purposes. Obama has a more interior strategy...he's appealing to states that Clinton is all but ignoring (maybe to her own detriment). Clinton has a coastal (and maybe Southern) strategy.

[no name no slogan]

5. It ain't about the states. It's the DELEGATES

He can win AL, AK and OK, but they won't add up to one NY.

BTW, he's currently trailing in MN by 7 points. You may want to revise that count.

[Zueda]

8. It's a good thing it's not winner take all...

This election is going to last at least until March.

[Bullet1987]

9. Obama has Illinois as well, where MOST polls show him with a 30+ lead

don't forget about that one. And he's also polling very well in CA.

[joshcryer]

13. If he doesn't start winning a lot of states, momentum will shift.

Clinton '92 was "all about delegates" and he was polling in the single digits in the earliest part of '92. There was a short horse race but once he got his momentum he blew the others away because of the percieved "win" of a state.

[no name no slogan]

19. It will be harder this year, because of the compressed season

By Wednesday, nearly 1/2 of the states will have voted, and most of the convention delegates will be allocated. If a candidate doesn't get the majority of the delegates Tuesday, s/he is going to have a hard time getting any kind of momentum together.

[joshcryer]

10. I bet you $50 you're wrong.

[robcon]

11. Polls are more unreliable than usual: almost all include Edwards.

That having been said, Clinton has a lead in 10 of the 15 contests for which polls are available, Obama has four, and CT is too close to call.

Clinton leads in 4 of the 6 big states: NY, CA, NJ and MA, while Obama leads in 2 of the 6: IL and GA.

http://www.pollster.com/

[grantcart]

29. but except for NH they have been consistently unreliable in under

reporting Obama's actual voting record by 5-15%

[robcon]

30. unusual spin, grantcart.

Instead of saying sometimes they have been quite inaccurate on all sides, you try to portray it as one candidate's underpoll.

Don't you think most DUers see through you?

[grantcart]

31. well your 100% right except;

1) Its not mine. Has been extensively examined and discussed as for example below
2) Its not spin. Its a well documented trend (see chart below) with all of the election except NH. NH's unusually dynamic situation due to some well reported emotional moments immediately before the election seemed to make it more volatile than others.
3) It is significant enough that pollsters are wondering if there may be something of a reverse 'bradley effect' going on. Others are suggesting that it may be because of the younger age demographics of Obama's supporters there may be a bias because younger folks are more inclined to have only cells and no land line and therefore are generally reported in polls.

http://poblano.dailykos.com/

One thing we've seen emerge in the results of both Florida and South Carolina is that Barack Obama has materially outperformed his polling averages when the actual votes were counted. Although this trend was contradicted in a big way in New Hampshire, it was also the case in Iowa, as well as in the "uncommitted" primary in Michigan.

A summary of the primary schedule to date is included below, including final polling averages from Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com. Because some people prefer RCP's method and others prefer Pollster, I have simply combined the two estimates -- that is, I've taken an average of averages

[ShadowLiberal]

12. I think it's very hard to predict this now

I think it's nearly impossible to predict who will win what states now, especially given a few things that make predicting it harder.

1) Remember the polls being wrong before, in NH they predicted Obama getting a 10 point win, but he lost by a few points. In South Carolina they said he would only win by like 10 or so points, but he won by like 27 points, a much bigger blowout then anticipated.

2) I've read that polls taken immediately after one state votes with another state voting very soon aren't always the most accurate.

3) I don't know if this is going to screw up the tally or not, but lots of people voted early, which could be hard to track in polls they conduct.

4) Edwards suddenly dropping out of the race hasn't been recorded in all of the polls yet.

I think that we'll be seeing a LOT of narrow wins reported on Tuesday night (narrow as in within 5% of each other).

I'm really hoping that Obama wins myself, but I'm not too confident on that yet, and my state doesn't vote for another couple of months.

[WinkyDink]

14. I say you are way wrong, re: CA; AK; KS; UT; MN; CT; CO.

[Perky]

22. You are not watching the state polls then

[Dems Will Win]

24. Polls

Democratic Primaries

State
Date
Clinton
Obama

Alabama
01/31/08
46%
41%

California
01/29/08
43%
40%

Connecticut
01/29/08
40%
40%

Georgia
01/25/08
35%
41%

Massachusetts
01/28/08
43%
37%

Missouri
01/31/08
47%
38%

New Jersey
01/30/08
49%
37%

New York
01/21/08
51%
30%

Tennessee
01/30/08
49%
35%

[Seen the light]

16. I'll play

Alabama primary OBAMA
Alaska caucus CLINTON
American Samoa primary OBAMA
Arizona primary OBAMA
Arkansas primary CLINTON
California primary CLINTON
Colorado caucus OBAMA
Connecticut primary OBAMA
Delaware primary CLINTON
Democrats Abroad primary OBAMA
Georgia primary OBAMA
Idaho caucus OBAMA
Illinois primary OBAMA
Kansas caucus OBAMA
Massachusetts primary CLINTON
Minnesota caucus OBAMA
Missouri primary OBAMA
New Jersey primary CLINTON
New Mexico caucus CLINTON
New York primary CLINTON
North Dakota caucus OBAMA
Oklahoma primary OBAMA
Tennessee primary OBAMA
Utah primary CLINTON

[Dems Will Win]

18. Alaska will go Obama, thanks to it being a caucus and KNowles has

endorsed Obama. Knowles has the only machine in the Dem party up there. Also there is too high a black population in DE for Obama to lose that one.

CA you might be right but a near even split would be a big victory for Obama nevertheless!

[Unsane]

17. Flip California and Missouri and I agree with you.

Obama's goal is to get out of Super Tuesday looking competitive. He has the advantage long term IMO.

[Sir Jeffrey]

20. My guess...

Alabama primary OBAMA (by a hair)
Alaska caucus OBAMA
American Samoa primary CLINTON
Arizona primary CLINTON
Arkansas primary CLINTON
California primary Clinton (Obama screwed by early voting..loses by 6 or 7 points)
Colorado caucus Clinton
Connecticut primary OBAMA
Delaware primary OBAMA
Democrats Abroad primary who knows...I'll say Obama
Georgia primary OBAMA
Idaho caucus OBAMA
Illinois primary OBAMA (with +59% bonus)
Kansas caucus OBAMA
Massachusetts primary CLINTON
Minnesota caucus OBAMA
Missouri primary Clinton
New Jersey primary CLINTON
New Mexico caucus CLINTON
New York primary CLINTON (and basically, if she doesn't get the +59% bonus she will lose the nomination IMO)
North Dakota caucus OBAMA
Oklahoma primary CLINTON
Tennessee primary CLINTON
Utah primary OBAMA

Clinton wins: 12
Obama wins: 12

Big headline? Obama pulls 60% in Illinois but Hillary pulls sub 55 in NY.

Other points:

Obama keeps it respectable in the states he loses. The only "big" loss of the day is Hillary in Illinois.

No knock out punch and the race goes on, but Obama comes away with serious momentum.

And note that I am being somewhat cautious here. I really think Obama has a chance to pull out Missouri and Massachusetts. I think Rasmussen's Mass. poll is closer than SurveyUSA's.

[Dems Will Win]

23. So that's the lowest on this thread of predicitons

Obama 12 Clinton 12

Looks pretty good for the Omentum freight train even there.

[Sir Jeffrey]

26. Yeah, I prefer pessimistic projections...

it is better to have lower expectations and surpass than higher expectations and fall short.

A 12-12 split is seriously great news for Obama...especially considering how "inevitable" Hillary was a few months ago.

Obama has tapped into something pretty damned big in the last month or so.

[Perky]

21. Stae PVs are meaningless....It really comes downto vote spread at the congressional District level.

ANd I think we are going to see a push...No clear winner.

[cloudythescribbler]

25. Even if (as is my guess) you're wrong about CA and MN (and Utah HEAVILY for Clinton), & maybe 1 or 2

others, I'd still say that Obama will have done very well, and have survived an almost insurmountable firewall to STILL be seriously in the running for the nomination.

[LordJFT]

27. Obama gets 9 but takes cali, which gives him a huge boost

[Dems Will Win]

28. Looks Like I was wrong about NJ, Obama may win that as well,