Breaking: Gallup tracking poll confirms huge Hillary surge post debate

[Tropics_Dude83]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104107/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

48-41 up from 44-41 for Hillary.

Rasmussen which has been posted had a similar surge with the numbers being 45-37.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

We seem to be seeing the beginning of a post debate Hillary surge.

[ruggerson]

1. I had a feeling this would happen

[neutron]

19. I suspect a HUGE backlash against msm Swiftboating

Right wingers fell for Swiftboating. Dems are the educated sector.

Dems can smell KO BO a mile away.

They aren't about to let party millionaires tell them to vote.

Hard working dems want the qualityi of life they enjoyed when
Clinton was in office.

[robbedvoter]

27. My friends and neighbors are coming to vote for her BECAUSE of that.

I keep getting feedback daily from people who used to protest her for the war.

[rodeodance]

53. great:-)

[still_one]

62. Let's see what they say when we DON'T leave Iraq

Her vote on the Kyle/Lieberman amendment essentially said that

[Auntie Bush]

63. You must have really smart relatives who can see through

all the stuff being thrown at us by the MSM.

[still_one]

61. and what are you going to say when Hillary says we can't leave Iraq because of Iran?

You do realize that the Kyle/Lieberman ammendment which she voted for said we would remain indefinitely in Iraq as long as Iran is perceived a threat

[DURHAM D]

46. Two things happened in that debate that were very important for Hillary.

(1) She made Democrats feel proud. She took away Obama's "can't we all just get along and break bread together" appeals to the other side. She did not directly address Obama's pandering but she talked favorably about Democrats and the Democratic Party. She pressed that Democrats are historically on the right side of issues. She asserted the need to stand up to Republicans. She made Democrats feel good about being Democrats.

The Obama effort to get the youth vote by disparaging seniors has wounded many Democrats. The Obama pander to fundamentalists has wounded many old liberals and the GLBT community and supporters. The sexist attacks have wounded many feminists/women. It seemed like the party was being infiltrated by someone other than Democrats. Hillary understands that fear. She gave us a reason to remember why we are Democrats and why we take pride in our choices.

(2) A lot of undecideds and some with soft support for Obama viewed a debate for the first time. What they were treated to was an extremely knowledgeable and well prepared candidate who was also very charming. Next to her was an obviously younger person with fewer specifics and and a lot of potential. They watched a very pleasant younger man who was differential and respectful to the older woman. Everyone finished watching with the idea that these two like each other. Therefore, a vote for Hillary could also be viewed as a vote for Obama. She can go first and he (once he has more experience) can go next.

The funny thing is that the shift started with the snub. Obama knew he had some ground to make up in the pleasant department. He actually went too far but that's politics.

[adapa]

64. nice analysis, it rings true to me- If I was undecided & watched the debate

I would have noted Hillary's command of the issues. I have to assume there are a number of undeciders in superTues states that are actually looking at the two sets of policy's & making that determination which is best for them & their philosophy's.

Clinton/Obama = dream ticket

[still_one]

65. Really, everyone I talked to, Democrats and independents say just the opposite

What are you going to say if she gets the nomination, and loses the general election, are you going to blame it because of gender? Maybe the blame may be due to the Clinton haters, that would seem reasonable, or just maybe it might be due to her judgement. She has been all over the board on Iraq. You want to know all the positions on Iraq, ask her, she has had everyone. Stay, leave, more troops, less troops, etc. etc. etc.

Her vote on the Kylee/Lieberman amendment tell you exactly where she stands on Iraq and Iran

[KennedyGuy]

2. Not suprising...not at all...

[Perky]

3. Depends in large measure where those polls were taken.

If it works to her advantage on Super Tuesday is thre real question.

[BenDavid]

4. Now that is what I call, "keeping the faith"....lookin' good uh huh

oh and all these fair weather democrats jumping ship when things seem to be going against HRC, ( and how easy it is that some democrats fall for the lies the whore media says ) this is what I would tell em: All right you fair weather so called friends, can I tell you something? We're gonna win this thing. We're gonna get the votes we need and we're gonna win this thing. And you know what I'm gonna do after that, I mean that very night, I'm gonna go to Sam & Harry's, I'm gonna order a big steak, and I'm gonna make a list of everybody who tried to fuck us. Thank you, thank ya very much..

Yo King! Elvis has left the building

[Seen the light]

Do you know what the word "huge" means?

I mean, sure, guess there was a very slight bump there, but going up 4 points isn't "huge."

[Tropics_Dude83]

9. In one day it is

And I say this as someone who isn't exactly Hillary's #1 fan.

[jlake]

25. Yes it is. She DOUBLED Her lead over Obama in one day.

If the roles were reversed the headlines would read:
"St. Obama DOUBLES Lead over Hillary in One Day"

[Auntie Bush]

66. Damn, it makes me sad to see that picture.

Maybe if Hillary wins she'll give that well deserving man a cabinet post.

[Cameron27]

5. She rocked that debate

I was hoping to see some numbers confirming it. Yea!

[BootinUp]

12. we need a rodeodance For The Lady ~~~~post

[goldcanyonaz]

15. Yes, we do!

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rodeodance]

57. EXCELLANT

[rodeodance]

56. `ALL FIRED-UP FOR THE LADY~ YES SHE CAN, YES WE CAN, YES SHE CAN~

JUST JOINED YOU ALL
hi all

[Teaser]

6. We don't see the beginning of anything

I love how every move in these polls is either interpreted as a groundswell toward Obama, or a move back to Hilary.

It's just numbers bouncing around. Samples roll off the moving average and the numbers change. They'll change back and forth forever.

[The Delegates]

7. Almost within the moe eom

[Neshanic]

8. Everyone I spoke to that was iffy about her, now is voting for her.

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Woohoo!

:woohoo:

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

79. HILLARY 08!

NO IF's ANDAS or BUTS!

She is the best candidate without a doubt!

Hillary will CRUSH McCain or Romney!

EASILY!

[BootinUp]

10. Well it was her best debate performance

to date.

Obama was also strong, but I felt Hillary needed to do better and actually delivered.

[Rock_Garden]

13. This is the trend that will last until Tuesday.

[MonkeyFunk]

14. Nice

and not unexpected.

One thing she's managed to do beautifully in these debates is come across as warm, funny and likeable. She was already perceived as smart and strong. She's rolling everything up into one very nice package.

[Indenturedebtor]

30. I was extremely turned off by her in all the other debates

In this last one I was more impressed again with Obama than her. She smirked a lot less I think that helped.

[Straight Shooter]

31. Warm. Funny. Likable. Elegant.

And much prettier than people expect, considering all the horror stories and the "shrill" meme.

[MoonRiver]

16. That's my girl!

:kick:

[sunonmars]

17. Yup, i think the polls are beginning to settle for Hillary

All polls today have seen Hillary gain and settle close or near the 50% mark.

If this is sustained, she'll go big on Tuesday

[aquart]

21. And the Obama people will say the fix was in.

Because it can't ever be that people of sense decided against the shining glorious wonderful NEWNESS of their candidate.

[sunonmars]

23. I have to say the Alabama poll today kind of stunned me

50% of white voters have an unfavourable view of Obama there. I mean what does that say to you about those states and his view of I'm going to win those.

[aquart]

44. I haven't a clue.

If we know one thing about this election, the exit polls are the only ones that have been right.

But I notice that now we're seeing emphasis on how WHITE Obama is, how his mixed ancestry has him comfy in both worlds and that's how he'll bring us together. Used to be, when a nation was conquered, a myth would arise of a woman "raped" by a god (belonging to the conquering nation) who would then give birth to a hero savior combining the heritage of the god (conqueror) and the woman (conquered). That's the myth they're tailoring Obama to. Our messiah.

Hey, it worked for thousands of years.

But it's TRIED and TRUE. Not CHANGE and HOPE.

[jasmine621]

70. If the media had reported the Obama statement his supporters might not vote for Hillary

the way they reported her MLK statement and Bill's Jesse Jackson statement and with as much negative spin, Hillary would have tripled her lead over Obama in one day. Many Dems just haven't heard about that bit of slime.

[surfermaw]

78. You mean like they did when the Big Dog went in the College counties and came home with Hill votes

[Little Star]

18. You go girl!!!!!!!

[emilyg]

20. Go Hillary!!!

[CJCRANE]

22. She looked presidential.

Obama was good too. I hope he gets the VP nom.

(John Edwards and Wesley Clark need to be in the cabinet as well).

[cd3dem]

35. Clinton/Clark 2008

Clark is the wise choice for VP... you need someone that is a strong supporter by your side... Clark will hold the National Security part of the ticket... the VP needs to be someone who can handle Bill as first hubby... Edwards and Richardson are in the cabinet and Obama ????

[CJCRANE]

38. Sounds good.

Clinton/Clark might be a good match-up against McCain. Obama has the youth vote though so he needs to be involved somewhere too.

[cd3dem]

40. the question is... what happens when you take too many senators out of their state?

will there be another democrat to take their place? will there be a special election or will the governor appoint someone? we don't want to lose the senate that took us so much work to obtain!

[CJCRANE]

41. Good point.

The question then is...will they campaign as

"Clinton/Clark 08"

or

"Hillary/Wesley 08"

?

:shrug:

On edit: fingers crossed, don't count your chickens etc

[cd3dem]

51. Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich of Illinois is a democrat so???

[CJCRANE]

55. Aha!

This is getting interesting!

In that case it looks like Obama has everything to play for.

[monarch]

24. Good news! n/t

[jlake]

26. Great. Her sparkling personality and warmth were showcased.

When people actually see her - and not hear about her through the Hillhater filters, they like her.

People may like another candidate better, but there is NO justification to HATE Hillary.

[MonkeyFunk]

36. exactly

she was able to do that in NY, and now she's doing it nationally. People realize the image they had of her doesn't match the reality.

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

87. Hillary is likable AND has substance ....Konowledge is a GOOD thing!

[rodeodance]

54. and she have a sence of humor which counts.

[Steely_Dan]

83. Nice Pic

He would have made a great President.

-P

[bunnies]

28. Now we know where the Edwards supporters went. nt

[ruggerson]

29. Yep

n/t

[mnhtnbb]

37. I didn't watch the debate. I would prefer the known corporatism from Hillary

to the unknown world where Obama's dreams might land.

[DURHAM D]

48. Good point. eom

[suston96]

32. Must be looking over Rasmussen's shoulder......

[NJSecularist]

33. It's pretty sad that the majority of these people just listened to the crowd

(which was obviously Pro-hillary) to form their opinion then actually listen to the debate and realize that both candidates both did commendable jobs and both were about equal in that deabte.

[The Backlash Cometh]

39. Take whatever Gallup says with a grain of salt.

Of all the pollsters, they're probably the least reliable when it comes to objectivity where Democratic interests are involved.

[Unsane]

42. I think you mean "hugh."

And yes, I'm series.

[Peregrine Took]

43. He should have distinguished himself and he didn't.

[NewHampster]

45. Rise Hillary Rise

Rise Women
Rise Latinos
Rise Seniors
Rise Uninsured
Rise Unemployed

Rise

[robbedvoter]

47. I think I'll bookmark it for the "she cheated' complaints

[rodeodance]

59. oh naughy you

[Lucinda]

49. Excellent! Thanks for the post.

:hi:

[mdmc]

50. I am shocked that she don't have it all wrapped up by now

What went wrong?

[Justice Is Comin]

52. You don't want to piss off

the AARP.

They is voters.

[rodeodance]

58. when it all washs out--no voter likes to be forgotten

[Gloria]

60. The Harry and Louise ad may have ticked off people, too....

[NoBorders]

67. What, the Entire Nation watched the debate?

So this this is a huge surge? OK. with the margin of error, it could also mean essentially nothing. Staking everything on wildly varying national polls is foolish. Polls are not very accurate this time around, we've seen that.

[still_one]

68. Interesting how you only represent part of the story

Perhaps you missed THIS PART:

"The gap between Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains in the single digits. In the most recent tracking period, Clinton holds a seven-point lead over Obama among Democratic primary voters nationwide, 48% vs. 41%. This is up from three- to four-point leads Clinton had the previous two days, but it is still a much closer race than a week ago when Clinton led Obama by 15 points."

Incidently, 48 + 41 adds up to 89%. So 11%, are they undecided, for a third party candidate, who knows

What about the young people who aren't polled?

In addition, the game is about delegates and which states

I am so glad that you feel the need to boost your insecurity

[Tropics_Dude83]

69. I saw this kind of analysis of the final Bush/Kerry polls as well

The polls were flawed. Kerry was surging. Didn't happen that way. I'll trust the polls thanks. As for the undecideds, they seem to be breaking decisively for Hillary. This nomination battle is 72 hours away from ending with a crushing Hillary victory. In fact, it ended on January 8th in the snows of New Hampshire when she pulled off that stunning upset victory.

[still_one]

73. Undecideds will break for Hillary? That is what you think

In California, Independents and nonpartisan can vote on the Democratic ballot.

The L.A. Times and the San Francisco Chronicle both endorsed Obama

As far as your "crushing" victory is concerned, it most likely we remain undecided after Super Tuesday

It is all about delegates

[ErnestoG]

71. "Surge" LOL - 4 points?

It fluctuates more than that in a single day, dude.

[Tropics_Dude83]

72. well Obama was gaining 1/2 points a day until the debate

In the gallup poll. What happened after the debate? Hillary reversed the slide and gained 4 points in 1 day. I bet that if you took the Friday numbers all by themselves, it'd probably be something like 50-38 for Hillary to bounce 4 points in 1 day.

[still_one]

74. I don't buy that assessment for a minute /nt

[BlackVelvet04]

82. You're really starting to look desperate... n/t

[still_one]

86. I am not desperate, for what.? Yes, I want Obama to win, but I will vote for Hillary if she

is the nominee

Frankly, this is just a matter of one opinion verses the other

have a good day

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

75. Hillary showed them she is likable. That turned the whole thing.

Everytime she takes the opportunity to speak in her own voice instead of listening to political advisos she wins people over.

She totally destroys the media's and Repubs slanderous image of her.

[Tropics_Dude83]

76. Exactly

Which is why even though I am far from her #1 fan, I think SHE is the favourite to win the presidency and not Mr. "less jobs, more illegal immigrants and more wars" Mccain. Her debate performances in the fall will sway a lot of people. I personally don't find her likable at all but people who watch the debates do.

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

85. Clinton is a winner and can take the center.

McCain simply stands no chance against her. NONE.

[npincus]

77. Yuck.

[cgrindley]

80. You don't understand "MARGIN OF ERROR" do you?

the poll's margin of error is +/- 3%

With that margin of error, the results could range from:


Hillary 45 and Obama 44 today... from Hillary 47 and Obama 38 a while back

to

Hillary 51 and Obama 38 today... from Hillary 41 and Obama 44 a while back

[Quixote1818]

81. I think Hillary pulled more from Edwards than Obama.

Notice how Edwards dropped four points and Hillary went up four. Obama stayed the same.

[BlackVelvet04]

84. It was obvious that Hillary

had a much better grasp of the issues. All Obama had was the "I'm smarter because I didn't support the war". Well, when he does that he also tells a large majority of Americans how wrong they were since they also supported the war.

I think another thing in Hillary's favor was the fact she was consistently given questions meant to embarrass her and stir up shit and not once did you falter and give Wolfie what he wanted. People didn't like it.

[crimsonblue]

88. big whoop.

Wasn't the pro-hillary crowd chanting just a couple of days ago that daily tracking polls are notoriously inaccurate? And now someone is touting it? N/T