If Obama Can Keep Clinton Under 30% In Illinois, He'll Win Super Tuesday

[THUNDER HANDS]

because Hillary isn't going to keep him below 30% in any state, and the margins will be so close they'll essentially get an equal number of delegates.

Illinois, being the third-largest state in play, is going to go HUGE for Obama - much bigger than California or New York are going to go for Hillar - IF they go for Hillary.

So if he keeps her under 30% there, then he can walk away with +50 delegates, which in a close race, could just give him the spike he needs to come out on top.

But that's the key number, 30%.

[sunonmars]

1. and if he doesnt

there will be a perception thing here.

If Hillary triumphs in 15 states, The perception delegates or not, that he lost.

[NJSecularist]

3. It depends on your definition of "triumphs"

If Hillary wins in 15 states, but wins by 1 or 2 points in 7-9 states, the perception will be very different.

[bernicewilliams]

2. So if Clinton gets 30%, she wins, and if she gets 29% she loses?

Wow...That's an importance percent right there.

[RL3AO]

4. If Clinton wins 15 states, it won't matter. She will be protrayed as the winner.

[The Delegates]

8. Doesn't matter

Won't matter how she is portrayed by the media because this race will go to the convention if the delegates are close.

Also, expect Obama to put a large chunk of his money into making sure the public is aware of the delegate count.

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Wrong, the media and the campaigns are talking about delegate counts now

Thats the only thing thats going to matter.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Also, the media isn't going to have head to head state counts on screen

but I'm damn sure they will have a head to head delegate counter updated in real time.

[TomClash]

5. Hillary will win NY but . . .

the City is trending away from Hillary and he's closing the gap statewide.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

6. The big unknown is early voting

Obama probably won't do as well in early voting that took place before he really got his momentum. The deciding factor on Tuesday may very well be how many people voted early. I think Obama will clean up among voters who do their voting on Tuesday.

[Evergreen Emerald]

7. That is his home state. Why wouldn't he be able to do that?

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. because Hillary also is from Chicago

but people seem to forget that, becaues she's from Chicago, Arkansas or New York, depending on where in the country she's currently campaigning.

[tritsofme]

17. Hillary hasn't lived in IL for decades.

Nothing significant in her political career happened there.

[MadBadger]

10. NY is Hillary's Home state, and Obama will get over 30 percent.

[Radical Activist]

14. Clinton has staff in Illinois

and has been fighting for delegates.

[Jai4WKC08]

11. Better do the math again

If Obama takes 70% in Illinois, which is pretty extreme, it will earn him 107 delegates. Hillary only needs to get 46% in NY to make up that same number. Every additional 1% gives her 2 1/3 additional delegates, and while he loses as many, for a net gain of almost 5 delegates per percentage point.

She is likely to do as well in NY as he does in IL, but it will earn her MANY more delegates. Or do you honestly think NY will be close too? Don't hold your breath.

[sunonmars]

12. New poll 52% for Clinton 34% for Obama, she's +18 and going back up

[NJSecularist]

16. Your math is wrong

If Obama wins 70% of the Illinois vote, he'll get 130 delegates.

[Jai4WKC08]

18. I'm only counting pledged delegates

I would expect him to get all of IL's super-delegates, but Hillary will get all of NY's and there are more of them too.