Why is Obama not campaigning in California?

[senseandsensibility]

As far as I can see, he is campaigning very hard in other states and leaving the big enchilada to Hillary. She's basically camped out here. She's getting a lot of positive and FREE air time from the local media, too. And California's media is very expensive.

I did go to his website to see if he had any appearances planned, and couldn't find anything. I think this is a mistake. He has a chance here, but people need to hear him in person.

[libertee]

1. He's not been heard of in NYS either...

[neutron]

56. I thought Oprah was

going to cover CA for him.

[sunonmars]

57. problem is its the biggest state to blow off and thats what Californians will think

They'll think he's sent his minions

[Perky]

2. It is the math.

The state is pretyy much going to split evenl vecause of the way delegates are allocated...his time is psent better elswhere. The bigger question is wht hasn't Mark Penn figured this out?

[Flabbergasted]

10. That's it.

[loveangelc]

13. How do you figure that? I think he should still try and get his % point number up.

[NJSecularist]

19. As I posted in the thread below...

California was never realistically his. He's doing all he can, but likely it will go to Hillary.

If Hillary wins this race 51-47, Obama will consider it a victory. She'll likely only get 30 more delegates than him. He can win those delegates and more back in his small state strategy.

[KittyWampus]

34. IMO, 60-40% delegate split is a victory for Obama. Realistically, since early ballots

and the "Spielberg/Reiner" crowd (monied stars who like supporting status quo).

[NJSecularist]

37. I don't think Hillary will win the state by 20 points

Nothing in recent polls would indicate a 20 point win for Hillary.

[senseandsensibility]

39. No, not the last poll I saw anyway

Does anyone have a link to the most recent CA poll?

[loveangelc]

40. despite the ~early voting~ ?

[NJSecularist]

41. Yes

This race will be won or lost on Tuesday, not by early voting.

[loveangelc]

43. But everyone is saying that half the votes have been cast....which I would think is overwhelmingly

for her..?

[NJSecularist]

44. That's wrong

Half the votes have not already been cast.

Only 22% of the potential voters have already voted.

[loveangelc]

47. Everyone is saying half the votes have been cast though.

22% overall or on the Democratic side??

[Perky]

You get Delegates based on how you do in a Congressional District

if bothe candidates get over 40% they split the delegate evenly.

[sunonmars]

3. too many states, too little time, that was always his big problem

He's having to go to the very vulnerable states to try and pick up pace. I'm not sure theres anything he can do.

[MADem]

4. Lowering expectations? Didn't Oprah do a gig for him?

He's dumping a shitload of money into Massachusetts--OBSCENE amounts of advertising. I think he's worried about the Kennedy-Kerry-Patrick Holy Trinity's ability to sway their electorate???

[sunonmars]

8. I don't see Mass going for Obama whatsoever

I think it will be a Hillary blowout there. If it is, its the big embarrassment for him, Kennedy and Kerry.

[loveangelc]

17. How is it an embarrassment when the media has been saying its safely in the Clinton column?

I dont think anyone really expected it to be a swing state at all...

[sunonmars]

18. well as far as i can see many polls still put her in the 50's there

[loveangelc]

35. well thats why most people think its not contested.

i didnt know it was automatic that because a senator from your state endorses someone, they are automatically expected to win the state. thats news to me. It's not an embarrassment or a shock if Clinton wins..its a HUGE embarrassment if Clinton loses or wins by a smaller amount than expected.

[MADem]

25. It tarnishes the reputations of the Senators who endorsed him, suggesting that

their constituents don't have much regard for their opinion, or the opinion of the Governor, either. IF Clinton prevails, that is.

Like I said, he's spending/wasting? a lot of ad money here. If it's not competitive, why bother?

[loveangelc]

36. How the hell does it tarnish their reputations? You are funny.

[MADem]

51. You seem to have a curious concept of what an endorsement involves.

The idea behind it is that supporters of the endorser will shift their allegiance to the endorsee, based on their opinion of the endorser.

It's not an academic exercise--it is meant to assist in the persuasion process to earn the endorsee more support.

You're the "funny" one in this exchange, not me.

[loveangelc]

65. But who really thinks a solidly Clinton state will go Obama because of 2 senator endorsements?

Every news station has said that MA is definitely in the Clinton column. If its even close, that's a huge embarrassment for her, not for the senators.

[MADem]

66. I love all of this "If it's even close, it's a win" bullshit.

It's actually NOT. If it's close, it's still called SECOND PLACE.

The art of lowering expectations is in full swing, though!

When the governor and the entire Senate delegation isn't in synch with their constituency, that's problematic--for the politicians. They'll need to "get correct" and start listening.

[MADem]

20. And Deval, our gov and one of his early endorsers, if that's the way it plays out.

Time will tell. If he can't get close, it will be a MASSIVE waste of dough. BIG ad buy in a "not cheap" market.

I voted for all of those guys (the Senators many times over) and their endorsement leaves me cold. It doesn't sway me in the slightest.

[DJ13]

5. Tomorrow theres a big rally planned in LA

With Michelle, Caroline Kennedy, and Oprah.

[MadBadger]

6. He thinks he can do well enought to take delegates away from her...and

Hes sending Oprah, Caroline Kennedy, and Michelle tomorrow to LA.

[ellisonz]

12. The Closers.

[libertee]

15. Oprah doesn't surprise me..Caroline I expected more of..don't know why..n/t

[Olney Blue]

7. I'm sure he has surrogates there working hard. It's tough to decide

where to be, I imagine.

[senseandsensibility]

14. Yes, there's a current thread in GDP about Kerry

appearing in SF for him this morning. I still think Obama needs to BE here. Hillary is getting a lot of positive press from the local news stations the last few nights. She's been interviewed by the local news anchors, too.

[sunonmars]

21. I honestly think California is not going to be as close as you think

Those early ballots are going to be a lethal knife i think.

[NJSecularist]

29. Only 22% are early ballots

And that is divided among the GOP and the Democrats.

So at best, these early ballots will comprise only 11-15% of the vote.

Not nearly enough to decide the race.

[Zynx]

31. If 22% are early ballots for both parties, they are also 20-22% or so of the

Democratic vote, it would stand to reason.

[NJSecularist]

33. That is divided up between both parties.

22% of the vote for both races.

[Zynx]

46. I was commenting on your 11-15% number.

Where does that come from?

[sunonmars]

58. according to yahoo

Consider the case of California: In the "Super Tuesday" state with the largest number of delegates at stake, it is estimated now that as many as half the votes will end up having been cast prior to February 5. That's more than 2.3 million votes, some of which were cast around the time of the New Hampshire primary.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080202/cm_thenation/45279382

[gulliver]

71. Pretty sure Zynx is right. In fact it is probably a lot more than 22% Dem.

Let's say there are 100 total voters, 50 Dems and 50 Republicans. 22% of all the voters pre-vote. So that's 22.

Assume half of the 22 were Dem and half were GOP. Then that's 11 Dems. 11 Dems out of 50 is 22%.

So that is 22% Dems if Dems and Republicans are actually evenly represented in the total number of voters. But that is not true in CA. In reality, there are a lot more Dems, of course in CA. And also, Dems are tending to vote at historically high levels vs. Republicans.

So the percentage of Dem votes already in in CA would be significantly higher than 22%. (I don't know that 22% base voter figure is right, though. Just getting it from this discussion.)

[Bullet1987]

59. Not to mention everyone seems to ignore the Indie Factor...

who's to say ALL of the early Dem ballots came FROM Democrats?

[sunonmars]

60. its been touted most of the earlies backed Clinton with about 60% of them apparently

[suston96]

9. Tomorrow with Oprah, Kennedy etc......?

[NJSecularist]

11. He's sending Kerry, Ted and Carolina Kennedy and Oprah there

But as somebody said, it's the math.

There are 370 delegates at stake here.

If Hillary wins 200 of those delegates, and Obama wins 170, it really doesn't matter much. Obama can win most of the small states and get that difference in delegates back using his small state strategy.

[senseandsensibility]

42. Do the polls show him ahead in

those small states?

[sunonmars]

16. Only 2 days campaigning left because Tuesday is buggered for stumping.

[MADem]

53. Superbowl Sunday is kinda hosed, really. I'm not a fanatic for football,

but I'm off to a Superbowl party with the family, myself. Of course, it IS the PATS, so maybe I'm being a bit provincial.

Though I have to admit, in the last ten years or so, I've attended at least five gatherings of that nature, and not even paid attention to the game, at times...they're great social occasions...!

[sunonmars]

54. So campaigning on Sunday is screwed too for Superbowl,that leaves Monday,lol no time

[Lucinda]

22. I think he has a big rally planned tomorrow, with Caroline Kennedy and Oprah

[sunonmars]

24. but as California primary votes are going to be into the millions

You'd think he's be in too see it out, California can be very flippant for voting. If Clinton has racked up a 1/2 million or more lead from early ballots, there will be problems.

[Lucinda]

32. I agree. Someone said he had a good ground game in place in California

Maybe he's counting on it? And his super bowl ad buy?

[sunonmars]

38. might backfire, i go nuts if political ads come in the middle during superbowl

[senseandsensibility]

45. He does have people on the ground

There are groups stumping for him and calling for him, even in the small towns.

[BeyondGeography]

23. I dunno...Why is Hillary still there trying to lock it down?

[sunonmars]

26. The bigger the percentage difference at the end, the more pressure on Obama to fall.

If she take New York wide and Cali wide and NJ and others, then the pressure will be on to quit, i think

[Cha]

28. 'Cause it's not such a

sure thing, after all?:)

[Cleita]

27. He thinks he has us in his hip pocket?

I dunno, maybe he's campaigning where he thinks he has a chance.

[Bullet1987]

61. WTF? Clinton can afford to camp out in Cali

because she's leading in the majority of the states. Obama doesn't have that luxury. He can't afford to stay in CA for 3 days.

[Cleita]

67. It must be nice to have all those corporate donations. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

30. He is and Obama is going to do very well in California.

I think it's more telling Clinton has pretty much camped out there. Neither candidate has to win California, since it's not a winner take all primary. If Obama picks up a big delegate count and wins these other states he's doing well in, he'll be declared the winner Tuesday. And even then, he still stands a really good shot at taking California.

[caligirl]

48. He was in LA yesterday focusing on the Latino vote, an important effort.

[senseandsensibility]

49. I agree

But Hillary is all over the northern part of the state, and she's getting a lot more attention. She's not just flying in for quick events.

[sunonmars]

55. he did an outreach at a latino college on Thursday, only AA voters turned up

http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8137257?nclick_check=1

He does have problems with these voters i think

"When I talk to my friends, we all say we're going to vote for her," said Sal Arciga, a 25-year-old phone operator having a carne asada burrito a table away from where the senator from New York sat.

What does he think about Barack Obama, running against Clinton for the Democratic nomination?

"O-who?" he asked, putting his burrito down, thinking about it. "I think he needs to come and eat here."

And that's essentially what Obama will have to do if he expects to break the Clinton stronghold on the huge and influential Latino vote here in California. He's got five days to do it, and he made an dramatic attempt Thursday with a rally at a Los Angeles trade college just hours before the final Democratic debate before Tuesday's primary. The event was billed as an outreach to Latino voters.

The only glitch? Most of the crowd was black.

[demo dutch]

63. Latino caucusgoers and primary voters in Nevada and Florida voted almost 3-to-1 for Clinton.. Link:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/local/stories/DN-olivera_02met.ART.North.Edition1.4572321.html

Quote:
Latino caucusgoers and primary voters in Nevada and Florida voted almost 3-to-1 for Mrs. Clinton. A similar pattern is expected to emerge Tuesday, when 22 states hold Democratic primaries or caucuses.

[cgrindley]

50. Better idea: why doesn't Obama just use his powers of teleportation?

I'm beginning to think that everyone here has collectively lost her and his mind.

[rox63]

52. Obama spent a couple of days in CA earlier this week

He was at several big events over that time.

[sunonmars]

62. just heard from some callbankers for Clinton in California, the debate swinging the undecided to her

They said Upstate California is swinging heavily to Hillary.

Debate mentioned as reason for final decision.

Also noone is polling Asian americans but staff noticing them trending Hillary bigtime.

[MonkeyFunk]

64. He is

tomorrow.

God, why don't people do the most basic bit of research before asking dumbass questions?

[cooolandrew]

68. Thank you for clarifying, Cali could score big for Barack.

[NYCGirl]

69. My theory is that they don't really care about the answers. They just want to

push their agenda forward.

[tishaLA]

70. Obama is here tomorrow

and let me tell you: I've been phonebanking for Sen Obama and volunteering at events and his organization in the LA area is unlike anything I've ever seen (I also know they are incredibly organized in OC, which has the 2nd highest number of Democratic voters in CA behind LA County). Where I phonebank, we have regular gringos like me, Spanish- and Korean-speaking Omama spporters, etc. who are calling people and getting out the vote. If you knew how many people will be taken to the polls on Tuesday, you'd be amazed.