Rasmussen Markets - latest odds

[HughMoran]

For what it's worth - this is what the "futures market" for the upcoming Democratic primaries looks like.



EDIT: It's updating constantly - see the numbers change here -> http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rasmussen_markets_democratic_presidential_primaries

[rndmprsn]

1. 10 to 12

yep

[agdlp]

3. Good numbers :-)

[saracat]

2. Interesting.They are NOT betting Obama if I read this right!

[demo dutch]

5. 12 wins for Hillary out of 22 (I think)

[scheming daemons]

9. Which would mean this is nowhere close to over on Tuesday

...

[saracat]

4. Am I reading this right? This would be a rout of Obama and a decicive Clinton win? Am I right? Anyon

[Uben]

6. No, it isn't a rout

Why? Because delegates are doled out proportionate to the percentage of vote they get, unlike the republicans that have a winner take all approach.

[scheming daemons]

10. No....

..it likely means either a 12-10 or 13-9 win for Hillary in states....

...and something like a 900 to 800 win in delegates.

Since Obama is ahead in the Feb 9 and Feb 12 states.... it means that on Feb 13, we're likely to be almost dead even in delegates.


Hillbots will spin their "win" as decisive.... but unless Hillary beats Obama by 300 or 400 delegates on Tuesday, this thing will still be going into March...

[loveangelc]

19. since when is obama ahead in feb. 9th or 12th states? im not attacking im just wondering...

does D.C. have delegates?

[John Q. Citizen]

12. No, it's bets on who will get 50% + 1 in any given state. Even if the other candidate

gets 50%-1 the bet pays of.

In terms of delegates (all that really counts) It's going to be a lot closer. As of now.

A lot will depend on GOTV efforts, weather, etc,

This race will probably continue quite a while longer. Some of the states in the next few weeks are better for Obama. He

leads in delegates currently.

[awaysidetraveler]

7. Future's market? What a load of trash! She's got an 8 point lead, according to this very site.

[bigwillq]

8. I have no idea what is going on here.

Anyone care to explain? :shrug:

[awaysidetraveler]

11. It's meaningless. Rasmussen is posting percentages of bets, it's an odds based on what people bet.

[bigwillq]

13. I am not a betting man.

But thanks for clearing that up for me.

[awaysidetraveler]

15. That's smart of you: after all, most gamblers are losers.

And house odds are usually suspect.

[John Q. Citizen]

14. It's not meaningless at all. But it also isn't reflective of either candidates

delegate count after Tuesday, which of course is what counts.

I support Obama and I think this race is going to go on a long time.

[awaysidetraveler]

16. What makes you think the race will continue a long time?

[John Q. Citizen]

17. Each state awards delegates on a proportional basis. At this point Obama has

the most delegates.

After Tuesday, Hill may be leading, but no where near enough delegates yet for the nomination.

The next round of states to vote have a number of them favorable to Obama. So he may very well catch up.

It may be march before the whole thing shakes out or even longer.

[my3boyz]

18. All

of the pundits say this will not be over on Tuesday. It is NOT winner take all! Even if she wins the state he will still split the delegates with her. The way they decide how to split them is kinda complicated but it is based on how many delegates each district has (or something like that). Obama has the money and he is not going anywhere after Tuesday. She will have the delegate lead according to pundits but not enough to win........

[HughMoran]

20. Yep, in fact if you update the link in the O/P, the odds have changed

They change regularly - Alabama is very slightly tilted toward Hillary now.

I know it's meaningless, but seeing where people are willing to "put their money where their mouth is" is somewhat interesting. Watching it change over time shows how some people are perceiving the "mood" out there.