Breaking: Field Poll shows HUGE change in California race!

[calteacherguy]

Clinton 36
Obama 34
Undecided 18

Just reported on KTVU T.V. Oakland....

[Bicoastal]

1. Whah? Is that ALL of California or just Oakland?

[calteacherguy]

4. Likely voters in Californnia...S.F. Bay area is Obama 41%, Clinton 31%!

just reported!

[senseandsensibility]

8. WOW

Those numbers for Obama are incredible.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Fuckin' A, teach!

[Cha]

18. That's 'cause they're

smart cookies there and they know what's up..and it's not bizasusual.

[Hoof Hearted]

43. LINK to this POLL? PLEASE????

hellooooo?

[Hoof Hearted]

44. So far it's FICTIONAL, or at least it lacks evidence. No link to the poll.

still waiting.

[Cha]

2. Wow, California! Way to get down

to business..guess Ben Affleck knew of what he spoke. :)

[Azathoth]

3. That, my friends, is a *race*

:woohoo:

[senseandsensibility]

5. I knew it

Obama could clinch it if he'd appear here for the next couple of days straight, like Hillary has been doing. And he needs to come to the Bay Area!

[Drunken Irishman]

7. He's coming!

[calteacherguy]

9. I agree, he really should I think.

Of course I'm no political strategist, but I think with that many undecided an appearance here could put him over the top.

[sandnsea]

27. Oprah, Michelle & Caroline

I think he thinks he's already gotten all he can out of CA and that the women are the ones who need to be reached now. He's got to shore up the northeast, I don't know why those people are being so goddamn resistent.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. GOBAMA!

[Alexander]

11. This is exciting! Here's hoping Obama takes California!

[bluestateguy]

12. How many people have already voted early

I worry that Hillary has already bagged a lot of early votes in California, and that this may be too late.

[Azathoth]

13. Pollsters usually take that into account n/t

[AP]

14. Also shows McCain closing on both of them in head to head.

[Pirate Smile]

15. That may explain why she has been planted there for days.

[NJSecularist]

16. It doesn't really matter who wins the race if it is this close

Both candidates will go away with the same amount of delegates

[Hoof Hearted]

17. I looked for a link on the site and couldn't find one, do you have a link?

?

[marlakay]

19. heh I talked my mom in CA to switch from

clinton to obama...caroline sent her over the line...

and my daughter says if its obama and not hillary against mccain she will vote for obama. she is in CA too...she is an independent.

my mom voted for kennedy in the 60's...I asked where she votes and she said they vote right at her senior apts (citrus heights), they make it real easy on the old folks...

[Kermit77]

20. Wow that close and 18% undecided!

An undecided usually break for the more insurgent candidate - hence Obama.

Obama might win California! That would be a huge story on Wednesday morning.

[WillyT]

23. Yep... And They'll Be The Last Polls To Close, I Think...

gonna be a long night.

Think I'll take Wednesday off, LOL!

:hide:

[ForRusty]

21. lol! Yay for democracy! ^_^

I prefer Hillary but will be happy with either candidate. Still, I think Clinton will win California. That's my prediction at least. :) On the other side I live in Kansas and expect Obama to carry this state.

[HughMoran]

22. Wasn't it 43-40 in another poll?

I don't see a HUGE change? (other than this poller has a huge undecided number)

[Muttocracy]

24. big change from a week ago, but not from the one you mention:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

[jefferson_dem]

28. Hillary -3, Obama +7 since the Field poll two weeks ago.

That's big change.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2260.pdf

[loveangelc]

25. Wooooooooooooooooooow. (/flava flav)

Does anyoen really believe most undecideds will go for Hillary? I dont.

Damn those early voters lol.

[caligirl]

32. No i don't. I think they are more toward Obama.

[CoffeeCat]

35. I think most HIllary fans...

...are all ready firmly planted in her camp. Hillary has been
the "frontrunner" for many, many months. Either you're in her
camp, or you're looking for something else.

That's why he surges so late in these polls. Hillary
can hold onto those supporters who have been with her
for the long haul. However, once the Obama campaign
rolls in to town, he starts winning new people and
people who are undecided.

It happened in my state of Iowa. I watched the entire
process, and it truly is amazing.

[caligirl]

37. That opinion article was actually very good on this question, can't find it

yet. I think now its at DKos. But the writer said at this point the movement is to Obama by undecideds. And those changing their minds or unsure tend to go to Obama. Their are more in that group who are less than willing to support Hillary. Those with Obama stay with him. Not so with Hillary. If I find the article I put it in its own thread. thread.

[jefferson_dem]

26. Bingo!

Yes. We. Can.!

Please forward ---> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY&eurl=http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGBMy

[mrreowwr_kittty]

29. Still think he'll lose b/c early votes broke so much in Clinton's favor

But this is still excellent news. He'll pick up a lot of delegates!

[caligirl]

38. Someone said the polls take the early votes into account in their

numbers. So its already accounted for in this poll. Guess they can determine a % of early votes went for each candidates in the polling process.

[loveangelc]

41. That's what I was thinking...but then record "early voting" didnt seem to help Guiliani too much...

everyone was saying there was a lot of early voting in FL that would help Giuliani but it didnt...it matched the polls pretty much.

[ErnestoG]

30. Breathin' down Warbird's neck!!!

I love it!!!

If Obama takes California, sheeesh...how many electoral votes is that....

[CoffeeCat]

31. Please read the NYTimes Magazine article...

...on the delegate breakdowns by state.

I'm still reading this article, so I'm still learning. HOwever, it
sounds like California will be dead even--unless someone breaks out
and really has a surge in the polls.

It sounds like, to win the majority of delegates in a district, the
candidate must win by a pretty big majority. I forget the exact
threshold, but it was high. So, the delegates will be split even
in almost every district that has an even number of delegates.

The article mentions that both camps are now focusing on CA
districts in which there are uneven numbers of delegates--just
to give them that edge in districts where the delegate count
is uneven. That extra one delegate will be awarded to the
candidate who has the majority.

Amazing. Truly amazing.

We are heading into a Super Tuesday, in which CA will most likely
be even, or damn well near it.

[NJSecularist]

34. You are 100% right

Even if Hillary has a decisive win, say she wins by 15 points, she'll likely only get 40 more delegates than Obama does.

Such is the weirdness of the delegate allotment system in California.

[CoffeeCat]

36. Thanks for your input...

I skimmed the article for a few minutes while I was watching a movie.

I appreciate your input.

It is a "weird" system, as you said. However, it's such an enormous state.
I like that it would take an immensely decisive win to run away with California.

If someone is going to walk away with that big prize--they should really earn it.

:)

[Thrill]

33. No surprise. Thats why Hillary has been there so much.

[Colobo]

39. GOBAMAAAAAA!!!

[GoldieAZ49]

40. Baraaaaaaaaaack the vote!

[BringBigDogBack]

42. Great news.

K&R

[tavalon]

45. I've heard this tune before, and

I'm not biting a second time. I knew HRC was anointed from the beginning and I still know it (hate it, but know it. Forgot it temporarily after Iowa) and this is just the MSM making it into a fair dinkum horse race, that's all. In the end, Obama's fortunes will fall and HRC will be installed as planned from the beginning. This primary season is tiresome. I liked it better before I stopped believing in our side.