Will the southern states of the U.S.A. vote for a black man for president?

[glarius]

This is a very sensitive question to me, and I have been afraid to broach it before, but I have been thinking about it since I first saw what a positive effect Barack Obama is having. I'm wondering if, even if he is selected as the Dems candidate, will the southern Dems along with the rest of the southern citizens, vote for a black person for president? I sort of suspect they would not. I hope I am wrong.

[MadBadger]

1. I think Obama would win Virginia.

[Bicoastal]

2. If he wins ONE Southern State (not counting Florida), it'll be one more than Gore won in 2000 nt.

[jasmine621]

30. Now just why do you think so many strange endorsements are coing out for Obama?

You know damn well they won't.

[AtomicKitten]

3. Obama transcends race with many voters.

Yes, we can.

[sandnsea]

4. It was just answered

in a different thread.

I think this is a really cute tactic. People 'from foreign countries' are now trying to undermine people's confidence in our politicians.

[glarius]

10. I don't understand what you are saying.

I am sincerely concerned about the outcome of your election. I want a Democrat to win. I don't care who it is as long as it's not another war-mongering Republican. McCain scares the shit out of me. I think Obama is inspirational and would welcome him as your new president.
P.S...You must realize that my country is greatly effected by who is in charge of your government. Of course I'm interested.

[MediaBabe]

18. Hi Canada

Most of my friends think race will play a part in this election. They do not think that white southerners will vote for a black man. I don't know. I'm thinking that maybe they're right. Bigotry and racism is deeply ingrained in some areas. It's impossible to erase it in a few weeks of campaigning.

I'm waiting til at least after next Tuesday to worry about it. Maybe it'll be a moot point. Go Clinton.

[Cha]

25. That would be the way a clintonite

would see it..listening to the clintons too much. We're better than that as a country.

[zabet]

33. Not necessarily so.

I live in a small Southern town and
the norm here is, rebel flags in peoples'
yards, on their license plates, on bumper
stickers, hats, t-shirts, you name it, you
can buy it with a rebel flag on it.
There is even a store towards the SC
state line that specializes in these items
and racist items, it does a thriving business.
Racism runs long and deep in the Southern
states. Not so blatant in all aspects of
life around here but, it is glaringly evident
if you choose not to turn a blind eye to it.
I wish we were better than that as a country
but I know we haven't quite made that goal,
we have made gains but we haven't made the goal.

[JVS]

35. I'll vouch for Glarius as a real DUer and not some kind of plant.

Although Glarius' stance toward the continued occupation of Quebec leaves much to be desired.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

5. I think southern states are unfairly characterized as being more racist

I don't believe it will be a factor in this election.

[BootinUp]

17. I have seen these kind of comments before

but I have never seen a study that reinforces that view. Granted things are a lot better in the South, but I live here in a mixed race marriage with 2 kids, and I have to say I don't see what you do. I grew up in So Cal so I do have a frame of reference.

[The Delegates]

6. I think Obama would win...

VA and SC.

Louisiana is a possibility if Obama makes an effort.

North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia are also possibilities (#7, #2, #4 in terms of black populations)

[NOLALady]

11. I don't know about Louisiana.

Without the help of New Orleans, Democrats are in trouble.

[The Delegates]

14. I was having this discussion with a lot of my classmates

(I go to college in Louisiana)...

If my quick unscientific poll is worth anything, it will be damn close.

[NOLALady]

20. If the youth vote

can pick up the slack left from the residents of New Orleans, we might have a chance.

I'm in Slidell (Duke Country). I have been targeting all of the young I come in contact with... mostly the Friends of my kids who come over. I'm getting all of them registered. I constantly find an opportunity to preach about the importance of this election. I can only hope that they are REALLY listening and will pass it on to their peers as well as family.

[splat]

13. The female population is pretty strong in those states, too

[BadgerLaw2010]

24. A Democrat is going to win South Carolina? What planet are you on?

[NOLALady]

7. I have no faith that they would vote for a black man.

JMHO.

[aquart]

8. Rather than a woman? You betcha.

[splat]

15. There are more women than blacks, though, to cancel that effect

[Recursion]

9. The south is still where most black Americans live

And the deep south approaches parity of white and black populations.

So I'm going to say "yes".

[Zynx]

28. Problem, the blackest any state is is roughly 35% in MS.

Whites vote 85% Republican in many of these states.

[napi21]

12. I really doubt it. I live in Ga,. I'm not black, but racism is very

alive and well here in Ga! However, RWers are the majority in the rural areas, and they would never vote for ANY Dem....EVER! So it's a tossup as to why, but no I don't think he'll win any of the deep south sates.

[NightWatcher]

21. I think he could take Georgia. He will take the Dem vote Tuesday here

There are a lot of rural haters down here, but there are a lot more of us (progressive thinkers) and the rw haters are dying of old age everyday and being replaced by young people who have not been taught how to hate.

[Dawgs]

32. There is no doubt in my mind that he could win Georgia.

Hillary, on the other hand, loses easily.

[last_texas_dem]

16. No

But, in fairness, most southern states aren't going to vote for a Democrat of any color. FL and VA are possible longshots, and Clinton might have a shot at AR, but I think it's very unlikely that any other southern states will be voting for the Democrat in the general election this year.

[Tweed]

19. It depends on your what your definition of 'win' is

Take a look at these maps. Notice that Gore and Kerry actually won several counties in each Southern state as opposed to losing nearly every count in the entire Great Plains and Mountain regions. Then take a look at different Southern state percentages:

Virginia
Bush 54%
Kerry 46%

Arkansas
Bush 54%
Kerry 45%

North Carolina
Bush 56%
Kerry 44%

Tennessee
Bush 57%
Kerry 43%

South Carolina
Bush 58%
Kerry 41%

Georgia
Bush 58%
Kerry 41%


Turnout will be at an all-time high among African-Americans if Obama gets the nomination. In addition, Democrats have been turning out at a much higher rate than Republicans for the primaries. Given the sizable African-American populations in each of these states and Democratic enthusiasm, Obama would have no problem polling at least even in the first three states and making things 'interesting' in the last three states.

Obama certainly faces an uphill battle to win any Southern state, but if he brings all of these races close enough, the Republicans will have to start spending money to insure victory. Money being spent in Georgia is money NOT being spent in Ohio, Florida, etc. Every cent spent in a 2000 and/or 2004 Bush state is a victory for Obama. So just like it depends on what your definition of is, is, your definition of 'win' has to change from state to state.

[fortyfeetunder]

22. Which reminded me of something...

Consider this == once the word is out on the international street that some Americans won't vote for a presidential candidate because of gender or race, then we have re-established ourselves as the racist buffoons of the world.

[NC_Nurse]

23. Some of them. More than will vote for Hillary I bet.

Dems don't usually carry the South. There are a lot of black folks down here though, and a few of us progressives.

[elizm]

26. I live in SC and Obama is our ONLY hope of winning here...

Will South Carolina vote for a black man for President? Hell yes we will!

[Zynx]

27. Short answer, no.

Virginia and Florida are possibilities, but virtually everything else no. I can break down the statistics, but I don't need to.

[Orangepeel]

29. maybe, maybe not. but those who won't probably would vote R anyway

regardless of whether the D nominee is black, white, latino, male, female, christian, jewish or whatever.

[knowledgeispwr]

31. Southern states don't generally vote dem PERIOD...but

I think certain states, like VA, NC, TN, FL go could dem this go-'round, mainly if Obama is the dem nominee. In general, I think the party is dumb to write off the entire South.

It's not just southerners that have problems with race in the US, and gender is a problem as well.

You have broached this subject before, on another thread.

[TexasObserver]

34. I think he'll win half the states in the South

Not sure which ones.

[mnhtnbb]

36. NC has Dem Governor and Dem State House. Edwards was able to win

a Senate seat, but the well-known African-American candidate, Harvey Gantt, twice lost a Senate race. We now have, of course, Liddy Dole and Richard Burr, two Repubs in Senate seats.

In other words, NC will go Dem for State races, but forget trying to elect a black man to
President with NC voters. It won't happen.

[mnhtnbb]

37. PS--NC voters twice rejected Bill Clinton's COS, Erskine Bowles, for Senate.

NC voters won't help elect Hillary POTUS, either.

[annie1]

38. anyone who won't vote for a black man would be voting republican anyway.

[depakid]

39. Depends

Someone like Colin Powell, circa 1999-2000- with military experience and gravitas would carry some southern states.

A young, inexperienced and idealistic Democrat like Obama won't carry a single one.

Then again, he wouldn't need to in order to win, provided that he runs a more or less perfect campaign in the rest of the nation, and manages enough of a majority there to offset Republican vote fraud.

[JackRiddler]

40. Actually, the question here is whether the NORTHERN states will overcome their own racism.

Racism and the "Bradley effect" are hardly exclusive to the South, which probably won't vote for Obama any more than it did for Gore or Kerry.

[VotesForWomen]

41. they will before they'll vote for a woman, not that that should have anything to do with anybody's v

anybody's vote.