CA State poll (not Zogby) shows huge gains by Obama, McCain

[ariesgem]

A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California's Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.

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But the Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That's down from the New York senator's 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October.

But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday's primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.

"It's an unusually volatile election, with a very high number of undecided voters and so many moving parts," he said. "It could be a very, very close election."

The head-to-head matchups between the Republican and Democratic candidates highlight both Clinton's loosening hold on California voters and McCain's growing strength in the state.

Clinton now clings to a bare 45 to 43 percent lead over McCain in a projected California presidential vote, down dramatically from her 17 percentage point margin just two weeks ago. Obama now holds a stronger 47 to 40 percent margin over the Arizona senator, but that's only half the 14 percentage point advantage he had in mid-January.

Both Democrats still run well ahead of Romney, collecting more than 50 percent of the vote in those matchups.

Obama's California campaign team said the latest polls reflect a hard-charging effort to track down potential voters in every precinct - undeterred by polls that showed the Illinois senator behind by double digits here for most of the race.

"If we hadn't laid the groundwork for the last year, we couldn't be delivering now," Debbie Mesloh, spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, said Saturday.

Averell "Ace" Smith, Clinton's California campaign manager, said the last-minute dead heat is to be expected in the nation's most populous state, which is "critical" to Clinton's effort to win the nomination.

"We always knew it would tighten," he said. "But we're incredibly confident in the organization we have to get out the vote."

The new poll shows why Obama's campaign has been targeting decline-to-state voters, who can cast ballots in the Democratic primary. While Clinton has a 37 to 31 percent lead over Obama among Democrats, Obama leads by an overwhelming 54 to 32 percent among nonpartisans, who will make up an estimated 13 percent of the primary voters.

The poll also highlights the dramatic split the Clinton-Obama battle has caused in the state's Democratic Party. Rich versus poor, young versus old, liberal versus conservative, men versus women: Each of those groups has lined up on different sides of the primary divide.

While people aged 18 to 29 back Obama by a margin of 11 percentage points, voters 65 and older support Clinton, 40 to 18 percent. Voters with household incomes of $40,000 or less back Clinton by an advantage of 11 percentage points, while those making $80,000 or more are strong Obama supporters.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1

Nervous time. This is going to be a close one.

[NJSecularist]

1. Now that the Hillbots can't discredit Zogby

What will they do now?

Clearly their candidate isn't the inevitable candidate everybody thought she was.

[LadyVT]

2. Polls

I would recommend looking at pollster.com, as it collects every poll done, and then provides the weighted averages. It shows Hillary up several points in California after the debate. It also performs its own daily polls. In my large (California) county, most everyone voted early--we don't trust voting machines, so we get absentee ballots. It's already mostly over.

[shanti]

3. guess they'll just have to duke it out

i'm voting my conscience in the primary. :shrug:

[BootinUp]

4. 18% Undecided in CALIF? That Poll is meaningless.

[LilyMunster]

5. Why do you say that, Jim.

With Edwards gone, it seems only logical. No need to dismiss it out of hand because it does not favor Hill.

[BootinUp]

8. Because similar to NH there could easily be break

of those undecideds that makes the poll look awfully inaccurate on voting day. Too much movement in too short of a time. In most elections the undecided number comes down this close to the vote to less than 10% at least thats what I recall.

[LeftCoast]

9. The numbers will continue to fluctuate until the day of the election

I know a lot of people who are still undecided. In fact, most people I talk to seem to favor a candidate, but are still not 100% decided (myself included).

[LeftCoast]

6. Historically, the Field Poll has been remarkably accurate.

I'd trust a CA Field Poll over any other.

[LilyMunster]

7. Me too.

I don't think Jim likes the results (Wes has endorsed Hill).

[LeftCoast]

10. I think there's a lot to like in this poll if you support Obama

He's got some strong 'mo' as they say. Clinton supporters, on the other hand, can rightfully point out that their candidate is still in the lead. It all comes down to the only poll that matters - Feb 5! :)