Obama has to win well on Tuesday or its over

[sunonmars]

If Obama can't put Hillary away on Super Tuesday, they are going to gather around the established name candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Its a case of if you set out to kill the queen on the chessboard, you better bloody well do it.

He's had numerous chances to put HRC away and its not working.

He failed in NH to put her away, she came back and beat him against all odds.

He failed in Nevada to kill her off,she won by taking over 50%.

He won S. Carolina by a large margin and she still went took Florida a few days later by 300,000 votes. Perceptions are perceptions in the eyes of the voters.

If he does not win ST by a long way on Tuesday, he will have failed again for the 4th time.

He has not also bested her in debate after debate.

A tie is not an option for him on Tuesday and i think he knows that. You cannot win by tieing. Obama is the challenger, if he can't beat the perceived heir well, then he'll lose.

If Hillary takes Georgia, along with Tennessee and Alabama. i think its all over.

The Southern states were being claimed as Obama's for the last month, if the party see's Hillary as strong down south or better than he is. Then its over.

This is all about perception. We'll look at the figures Tuesday night and see how bad it is for either then.

It might be for Obama, close but not close enough.

[glowing]

1. Did anyone ever really think that Hillary wasn't the next chosen one.

[sunonmars]

2. I never deny the possibility she might not win, nothings for sure

[glowing]

51. With the machines picking the votes, I have no doubt.

[cali]

3. Nope. He doesn't have to win

try educating yourself. He does have to come in close. The states following Super Tuesday look quite favorable to him. And if he does well in her backyard she's the one that people are going to be casting a dubious eye on. She needs to win by a substantial number in the tri-state area.

[still_one]

44. Absolutely right on /nt

[pampango]

4. "Why the clock may favor Obama" in the New Republic.

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/02/02/why-the-clock-may-favor-obama.aspx

"...Obama isn't playing for a win on Tuesday. Just something that approximates a stalemate. (I'd say that means carrying 8-10 states and 45 percent of the delegates up for grabs.)

The old conventional wisdom was that a long, drawn-out fight benefits Hillary, since all her natural advantages (fundraising ability, name recognition, establishment support, access to free media) will kick in once Obama's momentum fades. But, increasingly, I think a drawn-out fight favors Obama. Not only is he raising money at a phenomenal clip ($32 milion in one frickin' month!), but Clinton-fatigue is starting to take its toll. (Such is the nature of "fatigue" that it only gets worse over time.) Conversely, people seem to like Obama more the more they see him.

The other thing to keep in mind is that, if Obama can just survive February 5, then he's back to a schedule that's perfectly manageable for someone with so much money and such a large organization. There's not a day on the primary calendar between Tuesday and the convention that has more than four contests scheduled.

Obama tends to do better the more time he can focus on a specific state, (so) I see this slightly benefiting him."

---------------------

It will be interesting to see the results on ST. A big Hillary win or an Obama upset would, obviously, make a huge difference. A narrow Hillary win, along the lines described above, would make it either lead to the conclusion that Obama's campaign has peaked or that a long drawn-out fight might favor Obama.

As long as we don't self-destruct in the process. ;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Pennsylvania, Texas, And Ohio Will Not Have Voted Yet

~

[pampango]

6. Texas and Ohio are March 4. Not sure about Pennsylvania.

What is your view on the importance of those three states?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. TX Is The Second Most Populous State In The Union, Pennsylvania Is The Fifth, Ohio Is The Sixth...

That says it all...

[geiger]

8. Clinton Fatigue, indeed.

[saltpoint]

7. If there's a blowout, pressure will be brought to bear on the less

triumphant candidate to drop out and endorse the other.

But no one knows if there will be a blowout and if there is no one knows which campaign is blown out.

It could just as easily happen that they more or less split the delegates and headlines and momentum and the nomination race continues into the coming weeks.

[sunonmars]

I think after what happened with Edwards, the DNC will be talking to both Wed morning

I think they want this overwith asap.

[saltpoint]

10. They may be hoping for an outcome that will put the wind to the

back of their end-it-quick wish, but the voters could complicate things.

At the moment, subject to change I realize, the polling is very close in California, Missouri, Alabama, and Minnesota. They're both going to come away from it with significant delegate pick-up.

It's going to be kinda wild to watch.

[geiger]

11. amazing, isn't it, how they want the voters out of it?

[saltpoint]

12. Well, we're a persistent bunch.

I'll see you in line at the polls, poli speak. It's a big deal, especially after 8 years of despair and deceit from the Bush administration.

[geiger]

19. there is so much positive energy and involvement and excitement

i fear they fear "losing control." Power to the People, indeed.

[sunonmars]

13. I reckon the most telling thing will be the superdelegates shift on Tuesday night

Thats where we'll see wheres it gone.

[saltpoint]

14. Yes -- I hope the cable news talking heads will at least attempt to cover

that aspect.

I'm fearful that instead we'll get a 20-minute interview with Chuck Norris on the Huckabee campaign.

[sunonmars]

16. yeah or some old wrestler or actor endorsing a cream cake.

The MSM needs a bloody good slap sometimes. Why can't they focus on the fucking issues.

[KittyWampus]

23. no they don't, it just gives GOP ONE target to trash for more months. The ambiguity helps the Left

right now.

[fujiyama]

9. He needs to do well

At least win a few states and preferably a big state like CA ...as well as the southern states vital for his campaign.

[Little Star]

15. The shine will certainly start to tarnish, if he does not have a

very strong showing on Tuesday. Hillary is the energizer bunny, the clock that takes a licking and keeps on ticking!

[sunonmars]

17. send that Hillary, She's powered with Duracell, Obama your ordinary battery.

[JCMach1]

18. Exactly how will that happen?!? Proportional delegates mean that the process continues after Tuesday

Both will win states... and a few states may even surprise. It goes on from Tuesday because no one will clean-weep the thing and both candidates are too stubborn to give up.

[Vinca]

21. Obama doesn't need an overwhelming win on Tuesday to be the

nominee. If they split it 50/50 he's still fine. Hillary might need an overwhelming victory on Tuesday to stay alive since she was the presumptive candidate when this began.

[Kahuna]

22. Bull crap. And oh yeah. Keep your day job. nt

[Thrill]

24. NO Hillary has to win Super Tuesday....Because Obama

is going to take the VA, MD, and Washington area

[Joe the Revelator]

25. HRC has to win Super Tuesday, Obama has to survive.....

Then he can pick up the late primarys starting with the Beltway trimary.

[AX10]

26. Hillary will comeout ahead on 2/5.

But the pundits and Obamanation will be spinning it as a win for Obama.

[alcibiades_mystery]

32. There is no doubt Hillary will win 2/3 of the Super Tuesday states

None whatsoever. You have zero to worry about.

[AX10]

34. Are you trying to tell me that we have nothing to worry about?

Because I am not falling for it.
I am working for Hillary's campaign. I will be taking many Hillary supporters to the polls on Tuesday.

[alcibiades_mystery]

49. Do your best, of course

But

1) You're going to win
2) You're not the underdog, but the overwhelming favorite
3) Hillary's nomination is a virtual certainty

I'm not trying to depress anything. Do your damndest. I'm just one guy who won't be the least surprised when Hillary wins 16 states outright, including CA (by 6% at least).

You Hillary supporters DO have nothing to worry about, or to be such monumental assholes about. You're winning. By a lot.

[IDemo]

27. You forgot the bullet points and the "Forward this to everyone you know" n/t

[jefferson_dem]

28. Totally baseless.

Stupidest post of the day.

[GoldieAZ49]

29. Wrong, the delegate count will be tight

and this primary will continue into March or longer

[Sulawesi]

30. Hillary has to win well on Tuesday or its over

I changed the names, genders and a few state names in your post, just to show how subjective it really is...


"If Hillary can't put Obama away on Super Tuesday, they are going to gather around the change candidate, Barack Obama.

Its a case of if you set out to kill the new energetic upstart, you better bloody well do it.

sHe's had numerous chances to put Barack away and its not working.

sHe failed in IA to put him away, he rose up and beat her against all odds.

sHe failed in SC to kill him off, he won by taking over 50%.

He won S. Carolina by a large margin and she took Florida a few days later by 300,000 votes as the default candidate. Perceptions are perceptions in the eyes of the voters.

If she does not win ST by a long way on Tuesday, she will have failed again for the 4th time.

sHe has not also bested him in debate after debate.

A tie is not an option for her on Tuesday and i think she knows that. You cannot win by tieing. Hillary is the incumbent, if she can't beat the perceived challenger well, then she'll lose.

If Obama takes California, along with Missouri and Alabama. i think its all over.

The Northeastern states were being claimed as HRC's for the last month, if the party see's OBAMA as strong in the Northeast. Then its over.

This is all about perception. We'll look at the figures Tuesday night and see how bad it is for either then.

It might be for HRC, close but not close enough."

[alcibiades_mystery]

31. Obama will win FOUR states Tuesday

[AX10]

35. Which ones?

And why only four?

[alcibiades_mystery]

48. IL, AL, GA, and you pick 'em

Hillary is the overwhelming favorite, despite the whiney baby crap of the Hillary supporters. Her organization is tighter and more entrenched in all states, and she has the support of major GOTV players. Her nomination is a virtual numerical certainty at this point, and all this fighting is just sideshow.

If Obama wins more than four states, I'll place "I'm a monkey's uncle" in my sig line for two weeks. It ain't gonna happen.

[book_worm]

33. Don't worry Obama will do well on Tuesday.

[saltpoint]

37. Agree. He seems to be packing large venues with enthusiastic supporters.

Sounds pretty successful.

[AX10]

38. Large venues with packed audiences is a "guaranteed" victory.

Just ask Presidents McGovern, Mondale, and Kerry.

[saltpoint]

40. Hi, AX10. Just suggesting that those folks are Democrats, too.

I like it when citizens show up for political events. Or go to plays and films, etc. Whatever it might be. Far better that than stay in and watch more drek on cable.

The Obama campaign is drawing many enthusiasts. Final outcomes notwithstanding, the process is thriving.

[AX10]

41. I am saying that we have seen the picture many time before.

Large crowds does not equal a victory.
That is all.

[saltpoint]

42. They don't equal victory always but sometimes they do. It's roughly 50-50, right?

[AX10]

43. When it comes to overflowing crowds, no.

[DainBramaged]

36. I guess he couldn't be Vice President either?Not good enough?

And be the best damned President in our lifetimes in eight years? All or nothing?

Pathetic.

[Occam Bandage]

39. Hillary has to win Super Tuesday. Obama has better funding and a better infrastructure after that.

[Tellurian]

45. If Obama doesn't win CA, it's Over!

[mrreowwr_kittty]

46. Okay, please clarify for me: Am I supposed to think HRC is the underdog or not?

I can't tell from your post. If she has a narrow victory on Super Tuesday, will it be "an amazing come-from-behind win"? Or will it be an affirmation of Her Inevitableness's inevitable-ness?

Which is it? :shrug:

[cloudythescribbler]

47. This sets the bar unrealistically high -- Q: what would be a "surprisingly strong" Obama showing? nt

[WillyT]

50. Yep... Talk About The "Expectations Game", LOL !!!

:shrug:

[BootinUp]

I would be surprised if Hillary

takes Georgia or Alabama. Tennessee yes.

[DUyellow]

52. she is broke $$$$