California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (mydd)

[jefferson_dem]

California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday
by Jonathan Singer, Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:33:41 PM EST

Three new polls out of California, and three different results:

Field Poll (.pdf) Mason-Dixon Zogby
Clinton 36 45 41
Obama 34 36 45

From this mess of numbers, one thing stands out: Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama has put California away. For a period in time so close to election day, the proportion of Democratic voters remaining undecided -- or at least telling pollsters that they are undecided -- is rather remarkable. This is a very fluid race in California, as it seems to be across the country. While we might have had some inklings as to what was going to happen in the first four contests (even if those inklings proved ultimately to be incorrect), it's hard, at least for me, to come to the conclusion that either candidate is genuinely a frontrunner going into Tuesday, either around the country or specifically in California.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/3/143341/4344

[Unsane]

1. GOBAMA

[Azathoth]

2. No matter how you look at it, this is a victory for Obama

Hillary was supposed to clean up on Super Tuesday, now she's running furiously just to break even.

[IsItJustMe]

3. I have no clue either. The only thing I can say for sure is that Obama has most certainly closed

the double digit difference between them in the last couple of weeks. Whether it's enough, who knows?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

4. It's not.

[cali]

5. Diaper change needed for you

you really are in all out panic shit your panties mode.

[Alexander]

9. You're right, Obama will win CA by a large margin.

Undecideds tend not to vote for the candidate they are most familiar with.

[cloudythescribbler]

16. IF -- Obama carries CA, even by the slimmest of margins, HRC is in DEEP TROUBLE

but not the other way around -- indeed, Obama could lose CA, and get somewhat fewer delegates and votes on Tsunami Tuesday, but come out of the election with a "surprisingly" strong showing, continuing to surge through Feb -- as Jefferson_Dem pointed out in a thread that I don't know how to locate -- with a stronger showing than HRC from Feb 6 to just before March 4. Hillary, on the other hand, would be in a DESPERATE situation if Obama carries all the states clearly leaning to him AND the heavily contested CA.

The key is at what level is Obama's performance considered "strong". If he equals or bests HRC, then SURELY that is the case, but even if she is stronger but not strong enough to stem his viability surge, he could still win quite plausibly.

[GoldieAZ49]

6. Obama the candidate of change and hope

Hillary the candidate of washington status quo and hopelessness

It is obvious what appeals to the American voters

[mitchtv]

8. He is also the candidate for nuclear power plants

which to me , is a deal breaker. This Edwards supporter has gone the other way.

[GoldieAZ49]

10. I am all for Nuclear Power Plants

France uses 80% nuclear power, it will be the best alternative energy program for us

They can put one in my backyard

[mitchtv]

11. you are in a distinct minority

especially in Calif
it is also too expensive if it were safe

[GoldieAZ49]

12. I have been to SONGS in CA

and the Palo Verde nuclear generating plant in Arizona they are both supplying Cal and AZ

you prefer the rolling brown outs in CA?

It is safe, don't buy into the politics of fear, the oil companies want you to stay in fear, it is in their financial best interest

[mitchtv]

13. as long as the spent fuel is kept in AZ

and not schlepped over the rails and Highways to some state that doesn't want it(NV)) .False choice brownouts or Nukes

[cloudythescribbler]

18. sorry but the decades of debunking nuclear energy CANNOT be laid at the oil companies' feet

I speak as one who has been totally against ALL nuclear power plants (not just against building new ones -- no new ones in US started since Three Mile Island) since before Seabrook 77.

Nuclear power is BOTH too dangerous (even if meltdowns were made impossible so much that Price-Anderson could be comfortably repealed) AND too expensive. It is sheer power politics at this point that is holding wind energy, solar thermal, solar voltaic, and the VASTLY DISTORTED hydrogen energy transformations back.

For example, the pro-nuke NY TIMES talks about the 'dangerousness' of hydrogen fuel and its transportation when IN FACT, there has been on the shelf for THIRTY YEARS technology that EASILY manufactures metallic hydrides (eg Magnesium Hydride == MgH2) that are completely safe SALTS, which produce water vapor as the byproduct when combusted.

The policies of ecocide are so disgusting and dishonest it's beyond belief.

[cloudythescribbler]

17. Actually, in the debates, when nuke power came up -- the positions were more complex than ...

is being portrayed here.

Edwards said flat-out "No more nuclear power plants". Obama said that the various 'technological difficulties' (including specifically safe storage -- they were discussing Yucca Mountain) would need to be resolved before building more nuke plants (which pretty much precludes new ones for the foreseeable future). Hillary's position was described (without her contradicting it) as "agnostic" on nuclear energy, which is the position I trust THE LEAST. I suppose that the HRC policy would, as is the status quo, essentially go to the highest ( Power AND money) bidder.

Note that even if one is TOTALLY against nuclear energy, as I have been for over 30 years (since BEFORE Seabrook 77), it IS necessary to have research to figure out what to do with the waste problem we have, which is critical even if every nuclear power plant in the world were shut down tomorrow.

[Frances]

7. I think both of our candidates are excellent

There aren't that many Dems in my red spot in a blue area, but I've seen more Obama signs than Hillary signs.

Yesterday about 12 people with Obama pins on had lunch in our local cafe. I think they were going out to canvas for Obama.

My husband voted absentee for Obama while I will probably vote for Hillary.

Both candidates are great IMO and I hate all the bashing that's been going on.

[goldcanyonaz]

14. I agree. Nice post.

[Frances]

15. You know, I think a lot of my hesitancy about Obama

is because of DU.

It's true that some Hillary supporters posted inflammatory things, but I personally saw a lot more obnoxious posts by Obama supporters.

I now think Obama will be the nominee.

I hope that Obama supporters will reach out to the Hillary supporters with respect.

If Obama becomes President, he will need Hillary's support in the Senate to help pass the legislation he wants.