Politics 101: Don't nominate a candidate with the highest disapproval

[featherman]

rates (Clinton - 48% disapprove) in modern history. This is the heart and soul of my support for Obama. It should be a no brainer.

Take it from a long time, pragmatic pol.

Anybody who wants to call me a cultist or tyro or the usual junk that floats around here should probably take a look at my profile.

[Bread and Circus]

1. got a link for the most recent poll that indicates negatives/disapproves of each

of the candidates?

[featherman]

3. Yeah I saw one a couple days ago - will dig it out and post

[CatWoman]

2. you have a real point there, Featherman

[featherman]

4. This isn't recent (August 2007) so I'll keep looking

Gallup: Clinton disapproval rating 48%

http://www.examiner.com/a-892056~Hillary_Clinton_struggles_with_high_disapproval_ratings.html

[LadyVT]

5. HUH?? what is your source?

How Democrats View the Candidates (%):

Clinton Dec/Jan/Feb
Favorable: 75/79/80
Unfav: 22/19/15
Don't know: 3/2/5

Obama Dec/Jan/Feb
Favorable: 69/73/76
Unfav: 20/20/16
Don't know: 11/7/8

Source: http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=392

Fact: There's hardly a difference.

[fenriswolf]

6. i think he was talking about in the GE

which she has a high disapproval rating when you take into acount the entire country not just those that have a D on their ballots.

[featherman]

9. Yes, sorry, for the general election

[stevedeshazer]

7. That's only among Democrats

The OP is talking general election.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

15. Democrats. We need more than them to win. nt

[LadyVT]

22. We won't know until...

We won't know what the Republicans and Independents really think, of whom they really disapprove, until the Dem nominee has been decided. There is a lot of politicizing going on-- I believe the Republicans would prefer Obama as a candidate against McCain--and they've almost got him after all the media bias out there (I counted the positive and negative headlines over the past 2 weeks on just CNN alone, and they are overwhelmingly positive for Obama, overwhelmingly negative for Clinton...so much for media objectivity...you can count for yourselves).

[Olney Blue]

8. If Clinton is the nominee, what do you suggest to deal with this?

[fenriswolf]

10. bitch about it here to all the hillbots after mccain woops her

because as much as alot of dems don't like her the repubs hate her and the name clinton.

[GoldieAZ49]

11. be glad mccain works with dems

[H2O Man]

14. The Clinton camp

was aware of the high negatives well before she announced. It creates obvious problems. However, keep in mind that the polls that people post on DU are usually national polls. Wining elections is a matter of winning a group of the most important states. A person can win the presidency, even if they lose the popular vote, or even if both the democrat and republican get less than 50% of the votes.

The Clinton campaign is convinced that they can get the numbers needed to win, even with her high negatives.

[featherman]

19. It is a DEM year and the GOP brand name has been damaged

I am less concerned than some with Saint John McCain. If the MSM turns on him a little bit for his not-so-straight-shooting it may even out the playing field for us. I do not think he is as strong a campaigner as some think. Losing to George Bush does not impress me much.

[H2O Man]

20. Life always imitates boxing.

What looks to be a relatively fight is only going to turn out that way if you go into it fully prepared, taking nothing for granted.

[featherman]

16. I believe she has done it to some degree during the campaign

by getting out there are describing herself and her beliefs rather than letting others and the MSM do it for her. She has helped herself. But it is a long hill to climb and I am guessing that changing so many minds among casual voters, independents, men (I'm sorry to say) and moderate married women (think traditional voters in WI, MI, OH, IA) is gonna be a difficult, expensive task. (Luckily she will be well funded in the general).

It's a big concern of mine for the GE if she wins the nomination. We would be setting up a candidate with high approval ratings (McCain, if he gets it) versus one with higher disapproval ratings than one would like. Not impossible but difficult.

In this scenario I worry most about WI, OH, IA, and MI from an electoral point of view.

Even with a 54%-46% women's vote plurality overall in the 2004 GE we couldn't defeat George Bush. Clinton would gain among IND women but lose a percentage Kerry's IND men vote. Would it be enough? It's a legitimate question.

[Olney Blue]

25. Thank you featherman, and H2O man for your thoughtful posts.

I'm a liberal Dem, and I want to WIN. I'm still undecided (my primaries aren't until Feb 12, so I have a bit longer to ponder this.) I could support Obama or Clinton without reservation if they were our candidate in the GE. I love Clinton's wonkiness and gravitas and I love Obama's optimism and consensus building desires. I suppose I am waiting for Tuesday to see what happens- I have to hope that Dems smarter than me have figured all this out..... it will be an exciting day!

[GoldieAZ49]

12. the difference between the two of them, Hillary demands, Obama attracts

[Laurab]

13. I agree - it IS Politics 101

Why that's so hard for some people to understand, is beyond me.

To the poster above me - If Hillary happens to win, all we can do is support her as best we can. She'll need EVERY dem vote, as well as independent and crossovers. The way it's looking now is that she's not going to get even every dem vote, much less many independents, and surely not many republicans. It will take a HUGE GOTV effort by everyone who wants a dem in the WH, and I'm still afraid it won't be enough.

[fenriswolf]

17. I dont know if all the dem votes in the world

could help hillary especially after the mandatory health care guffaw, her long long history, her name, and bill. It's gonna take a miricle to get her elected if she wins the primary.

[Laurab]

21. I agree with you.

Although many HRC backers have disagreed with me, it seems obvious to me that she's NOT going to get all the dem votes. A smaller group has indicated they wouldn't vote for Obama. HE can make up for it with Independents, and the Repugs who can't stand their candidates, and there are a lot of them. HRC doesn't have that to fall back on.

It WILL take a miracle to get her elected. I think it will be, as so many say, "Democrats once more snatching defeat from the jaws of victory". It is probably a year when almost any decent dem NOT named Clinton could win against the repukes, and I hope we don't screw it up.

[bigtree]

23. It's not all about Hillary. A Democratic administration brings in a host of indispensable benefits

I think most voters will recognize that when faced with the choice between our Democratic candidate and McCain or Romney.

[fenriswolf]

24. and i'm saying

the republicans would come in force to vote hillary down and their would be a lot of dissent on hillaries side. I'm sure she would get a lot of dem support but it would be an uphill battle all the way to get the dems behind her and you can almost forget any repubs from voting for her, especially with hillary threatening to garnish wages and mcain going tax breaks for everyone.

[bigtree]

18. EVERY Democrat who rises their head above the pack is beat down by the republican corporatocracy

Obama isn't out of that league yet, he just hasn't managed to get his neck far enough out to draw their fire.