How will the California vote go?

[Colobo]

Poll question: How will the California vote go?

Predictions here.

[Jed Dilligan]

1. Florida 2000 on steroids.

[IndianaGreen]

2. I pray the Reuters Zogby poll turns out right, as it did in NH

The latest poll shows a slim Obama lead in California.

[jlake]

3. Hillary by 6-8%

[Colobo]

4. I voted for the first option; I think Hillary wins by 4% to 5%; I hope I'm VERY wrong.

GOBAMA! :bounce:

[LordJFT]

17. you don't seem much for optimism

didn't you predict Obama would get 3rd in Iowa?

[billbuckhead]

5. I'm betting on the Hillarios coming through. Double digit Clinton victory

What what was so wrong with peace and prosperity of the nineties?

[cloudythescribbler]

18. care to wager anything on that?

[billbuckhead]

19. The future of our troubled nation is what we're all wagering

The Clinton years were good years and Obama is the most divisive force I've seen in my lifetime in the Democratic party., I don't believe in polls so much but in general arithmetic, women are 51% of voters and when you add gays, that's a majority outside the margin of error. Natural majorities like that are hard to find in politics.

[goldcanyonaz]

6. Obama by 105%!

[Dogmudgeon]

7. Hillary by 12-15% -- but that's just CA

The coasts are skewed in the polls too much toward Obama, and in "flyover country", far too much to Hillary.

Obama will do poorly in CA. On the other hand, places like Oklahoma will go for Obama, in spite of allegedly having commanding leads for HRC.

Overall: A close race; closer in the percentages than the delegate count.

--p!

[loveangelc]

13. "Obama will do poorly in CA. On the other hand, places like Oklahoma will go for Obama"

...

[HughMoran]

8. Too close to call - look at the Rasmussen Markets odds in the picture ->

50-50 - ain't getting any more even than that!

[gateley]

9. That's amazing! Some of the other states are MILES apart! nt

[HughMoran]

12. Because they are "odds" a nearly certain victory will be 90% to single digit

The fact that people betting on who will win California are split 50-50 (it changes frequently, I just caught it at the right time) is a good indication that it's a toss up at this moment in time.

[Lindsey]

15. I'm going for Obama - He's really surging here just the past few days-n/t

[Quixote1818]

10. Obama is surging right now. He should take California by a few points. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I think the surge carries Obama to a 1 or 2 point victory.

This Maria Shriver endorsement puts him over the top.

[lligrd]

14. Heck, I Live In California And I Would Never Bet On How We

will vote. It is a strange place.

[CoffeeCat]

16. I believe the dynamics and the end result...

...are so similar to what happened in Iowa.

Iowa went down like this...

Hillary is inevitable...We really like Edwards. Obama is a good candidate too...

Then, two weeks later...

Hillary's a good candidate. We really like Edwards. Heyyyyyy, Obama is really great and I like his plans and ideas!

Then, a week later...

Hillary's ok...We really like Edwards. Barack frickin Obama!! My man!!!

Then, one week before election...

Hillary who? We really like Edwards. NOT ONLY WILL I CAUCUS FOR OBAMA, BUT I WILL ALSO VOLUNTEER NIGHT AND DAY IN
THE DRIVING SNOW AND CARRY PEOPLE TO THE CAUCUS ON MY BACK!!! SIGN ME THE HECK UP!! I'LL SPEND THE REMAINDER OF
THIS CAMPAIGN SEASON PAYING HOMAGE TO THE BRILLIANT, CHANGE MASTER AND INSPIRATIONAL LEADER THAT IS BARACK OBAMA!!

That's not scientific, but that's pretty much how it went down. California seems to be following suit.