Are Edwards supporters breaking for Obama? Poll

[Spiffarino]

That's not the contention of the TPM article, mind you, but look at the polls that Gallup has been tracking daily and judge for yourself:



No doubt Hillary Clinton lost some to Edwards in the earlier polling, but it appears that Obama's recent numbers are moving opposite of Edwards'. I know it's not scientific but it's kind of interesting. I suspect a lot of Edwards' support is moving to Obama.

[MadBadger]

1. You do know btw, that those tracking numbers are old now. Obama is now down 1.

[Spiffarino]

2. Yep, they're at least a couple days old

I hear the latest Gallup numbers are looking good for Obama. I do hope the Edwards supporters - like me - start to break hard for Obama. Every Edwards supporter I know personally has moved in that direction...again, very unscientific but cool nonetheless.

[MadBadger]

3. I think they are.

[FrenchieCat]

4. Yes, very kewl!

:hi:

[HowHasItComeToThis]

5. DITTO

[Dogmudgeon]

6. The polls are beginning to diverge

That's pretty common when a close race gets close to the day of the election(s). It looks like Obama +5 to Clinton +8 in various polls. That's a big spread, 13 points, and the undecided vote is going to be historically large.

Tuesday night is going to be popcorn night in liberal America!

:bounce:

--p!
Can't hardly wait.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. They're breaking toward Obama in a big way.

Super Tuesday States:


Clinton Obama Edwards Undecided/Other %

With JE

All 41 29 14 16
Red 40 28 18 16
Blue 51 25 11 13
Swing 40 27 14 19


Clinton Obama Undecided/Other %

Post JE

All 45 42 13
Red 36 49 15
Blue 50 39 12
Swing 46 41 13

Change %

All +4 +13 -3
Red -4 +21 -1
Blue -1 +14 -1
Swing +6 +14 -6

-----

Obama is picking up approximately 8-9 percentage points in swing states, as much as 15% in blue states and 25% in red states. It's truly remarkable and is happening in a very short period of time.

[grantcart]

8. here is an update of the poll which reinforces your point

I also think he is getting most of the undecideds.



But the most dramatic example was Georgia




Here two post Edwards polls had the exact same result

Insider/Advantage and Rasmussen Obama 51 and Clinton 36 and 37.


In my canvassing in San Diego polled 8 Edwards voters and all were going to Obama.

[Spiffarino]

9. The uptick to 48% looked like a fluke

It could have been a bad sample. The 4-point surge seemed unlikely given how Edwards voters appear to be rolling. Then again, it IS a poll and it IS Gallup. Hmm...

It should be an interesting Tuesday evening. :popcorn: