Zogby's Sunday sample had Obama opening up 17 point lead in California

[Herman Munster]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1445

Pollster John Zogby: "A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Wait, is Mr. Munster really posting a poll favoring Obama?

What has the world come to?

:)

[Big Blue Marble]

2. Herman Is that really you bearing such good news?

OMG That is great.

[Herman Munster]

5. I'd be skeptical if I were you

it's much more likely the race is even than Obama leading 17 points.

[MadBadger]

6. Its the absentees that are keeping it close.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. At this rate, it could be a comfortable Obama win.

Though nothing is ever a given.

[Big Blue Marble]

7. Why do you say that? n/t

[Herman Munster]

8. because Hillary has the get out the vote operation and the machine behind her

It's what saved her in New Hampshire. It's what saved her in Nevada. It's what could save her in California.

[andyrowe]

14. I think McCain eating up the indies is why she squeaked NH

But you are right about her formidable machine.

[CreekDog]

17. In California, Indies can't vote in Republican primary, they may vote in the Dem one

That's a big difference when you are comparing to New Hampshire.

[Perky]

22. I think I know why this has happened : A theory

Maybe it was Schwarzenegger's endorsement of McCain. Maybe RW viters who do not like McCain or Hillary figure McCain has it locked in CA....and they are now voting against Hillary in an Open Primary.

Just a theory....17 points is not a surge.....it's a Tsunami.

[Perky]

20. But Hillary has a lower ceiling

I don't believe the CA number...I agree it has to be a lot closer then that.


You would have to have a serious gaffe to drop 17 points and that did not happen.

It is as though all leated deicedsrs broke for Obama.... Was it here answer on the IWR?

[featherman]

10. I'm with Herman on this one...too much

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Not too much, don't look at the 17 points.

It's probably the outlier of this poll. However, it does show Obama is surging. He won't win California by 17, but he could win it by 5+ if the trend continues. Of course, he can lose, too.

[Renew Deal]

28. I agree

I am extremely skeptical of wild swings.

[MadBadger]

3. I'm Proud of you Herman....btw, I feel as if the absentees are keeping it close.

[featherman]

4. Too much... this is getting ridiculous

But thanks, Herman

[SleeplessinSoCal]

12. I'm sensing this Obamamentum as well

49%-32%? I can hardly wait to vote on Tuesday.

Maria Shriver's endorsement gave me goosebumps. Steven Weber's at HuffPost as well.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-weber/a-huff-postscript_b_84631.html


p.s. California should have moved up the primary ages ago.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I think I'm the only person who ever liked WINGS.

I loved that show.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

23. Me too!

I have a picture signed by the whole cast too! (Post Thomas Haden Church though)

I loved the show too. It's so sad about one of the show's creators though.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

13. A single night sample is too small

As an Obama suporter, I take this with a grain of salt. Sure, I'd rather have this that Clinton leading by 17, but I don't really think Obama is so far ahead. I will be very happy if he manages the election close, and exultant if he manages to squeeze by even by the slimmest of margins.

[Dogmudgeon]

16. That needs some more reading

The main polling results show Obama at +6 -- it's down the page. I've seen this kind of discrepancy at Zogby before.

I think the +17 is from a tracking poll, probably designed to be more sensitive to trends than to "absolute" numbers of voters. I am not familiar enough with the methodology to say for certain, but that's what it looks like.

--p!

[protect our future]

18. Zogby is correct about Missouri. Obama is ahead here. n/t

[Perky]

19. If thisis true... in all four states.... It may in fact be over very quickly

That is a stunning number

[Kahuna]

21. Dang! 17 points is a can of whoop ass!

I hope it's true..I hope it's true..O8)

[sunonmars]

24. Zogby, can i laugh now.....

This is the same Zogby who proclaimed Kerry won Florida when the polls closed only for him to lose it by a massive margin.

Zogby has never been on the right target its even worse than Rassmussen and i dont even trust them.

[Imagevision]

25. Ethel Kennedy - Maria Shriver come out over weekend to endorse Obama...!

[angie_love]

26. Thanks Herman for posting that.

First I don't think Obama will win CA so i'm not going to hope for that. I just hope for a very tight close finish and if he wins then it will be bonus but I think Hillarys absentee ballots will be too much to overcome. I've hope yet though.

[totodeinhere]

27. As an Obama supporter I am wondering if this is too good to be true.

After getting burned by the polls in New Hampshire, I am a bit skeptical of any polls. But if this really is true, what an amazing surge there has been for Obama. I can hardly wait for tomorrow.

[Robbins]

29. Zogby

Forget 2004.Zogby has been pretty right this primary season.I say to my fellow Obama supporters don't take anything for granted.But,let's say something.California was suspose to be a can't lose
for Hillary,and Obama could win here.I am not saying he will but he could win.Obama could win here
In Missouri now here It was not considered a can't lose for Hillary but still.New Jersey another can't lose Zogby has them tied.So New Jersey might(and I stress Might) be In Play for Obama.Even if Hillary wins there If Obama Is only a couple of points behind her that would be a huge victory considering she was suspose to win by 20 points.